Sunday, February 7, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV Preview




Well here we are guys. The greatest sporting event known to man. When the Game is sometimes just as entertaining as the Commercials. And this year the Super Bowl hosts two of the most exciting offenses in the League, with two of the biggest names at Quarterback. And that is the biggest attraction of this game. The two Quarterbacks. One is known for helping save a city, and the other is known for being the best at his position. And they go head to head, a win solidifying one as a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate and the other as the Greatest Quarterback of all time. Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning.



New Orleans Saints 15-3 vs. Indianapolis Colts 16-2
5:25pm
CBS
Line: Ind -4 (56)
Game Time Weather: 64 deg 0% precip

Colts Passing Offense vs. Saints Passing Defense
Colts #2 Passing Offense (282.2ypg)
Saints #26 Passing Defense (235.6ypg/all)

This should be one of the big keys to the game as this Colt's offense is lead by one of, if not the, best QBs ever to lace it up in Peyton Manning (393-571 68.8% 4,500yds 33td 16int). He has a great group of a receivers to throw to but the two biggest targets are WR Reggie Wayne (100cth 1,264yds 10td) and TE Dallas Clark (100cth 1,106yds 10td) and they both create some match up problems for the Saints secondary. Despite that both Wayne and Clark tied for receptions and touchdowns Wayne is Mannings go to receiver as he led all WRs in the NFL in receptions for 1st down (731d) and he is also the biggest threat to stretch the field as he led the Colts in 20+ yard receptions with 20. Clark is physically the biggest mismatch for the Saints' Defense, as he is 6'3 252 and is fast for his size meaning he may be too physical for a Safety and too quick and fast for Linebackers. Two other receivers that have made an impact this season for the Colts are Pierre Garcon and the rookie from BYU Austin Collie. No matter what the statistics say this is the best passing offense in the NFL and no matter what the lead they (mostly Peyton) can pick apart any secondary when necessary. The Saints' secondary is lead by Pro Bowl Safeties Darren Sharper (71tkl 0.5sck 9int) and Roman Harper (102tkl 1.5sck) and they are going to be busy all day long trying to shut down the NFLs #2 Passing Offense. Harper is more of a run stopping SS which may be bad news for the Saints as his coverage skills are going to be tested as he will be on Clark or the slot or one of the slot receivers during the game. The Saints Secondary is really not as bad as the numbers show, as starting CBs Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer were both injured for a number of games during the season. Greer is one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the game of football and is another solid season from being recognized as such. There are 2 youngsters in the Saints secondary in Tracy Porter (2nd season) and Ohio State rookie Malcom Jenkins. This underrated secondary is in for the toughest test it has seen all season.

Advantage: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts Rushing Offense vs. Saints Rushing Defense
Colts #32 Rushing Offense (80.9ypg)
Saints #21 Rushing Defense (122.2ypg/all)

This is an interesting part of the game as the Colts really don't run the football that much, they are 31st in the NFL in rushing attempts (22.9), and are not very succesful when they do, 30th in the NFL in yards per attempt (3.5ypc). Joseph Addai (219att 828yds 3.8ypc 10td) is the leading rusher for the Colts, by far, and he may have an increased role in Sundays game against what is one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. While the Cardinals only rushed for 101 yards against the Saints in the Divisional round of the playoffs their leading rusher, Tim Hightower, rushed for 6 times for 87 yards (14.5ypc), and Peterson torched the Saints for 122 yards and 3 touchdowns and it could've been worse had they not turned the ball over so much. The Saint LB that will be in charge of keeping the Colts run game at a minimum is Pro Bowl MLB Jonathan Vilma (110tkl 2.osck 3int) who is thriving in Defensive Coordinor Gregg Williams scheme. The biggest worry Saints fans have is the OLBs injury prone/aging Scott Fugita, who is still a solid OLB when healthy, and Scott Shanle. The Colts run a spread offense and Dallas Clark is a solid blocking TE and which will probably mean only Two linebackers on the field. Those Two will be Fujita and Vilma. Another thing the Colts have going in their favor is that the Saints are 31st in the NFL in rushes allowed that resulted for a 1st down.

Advantage: EVEN

Colts Offensive Line vs. Saints Defensive Line
Colts OL Average Size: 6'3 303
Saints DL Average Size: 6'3 292

The Colts Offensive is the best in the NFl at protecting the QB, they are #1 in sacks allowed (13) and tied for 1st in QB Hits allowed (44).
The Colts offensive line is a solid group that is also one of the most experienced (#9) in the NFL. They are lead by Pro Bowl C Jeff Saturday and even though this group is not very good at run blocking they are still a very solid line. And they are going to have their hands full on Sunday. The Saints defense, which finished the year #13 in the NFL in sacks, and their DC Gregg Williams, have promised to send as many as they can after Colts QB Manning on Sunday. Perhaps the biggest threat they have to worry about is DE Will Smith who finished the season #5 in the NFL with 13.0 sacks. If they treat Manning like they treated Minnesota QB Brett Favre in the NFC Conference Championship Game than they will take any available opportunity to hit Manning, even taking the occasional personal foul, as long as knock him on the ground. I like the Colts Offensive Line in this one but Gregg Williams is a disciple of Buddy Ryan (Rex's Dad) and that means given two weeks he'll find a way to get some kind of twist or blitz that will at least get to Manning once or twice.

Advantage: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Saints Passing Offense vs. Colts Rushing Defense
Saints #4 Passing Offense (272.2ypg)
Colts #14 Passing Defense (212.7ypg/all)

Drew Brees and the "Greatest Sheaux on Turf" are what makes the Saints' offense move. Brees (363-514 70.6% 4,388yds 34td 11int) is the leader of this offense and his deadly accuracy (#1 in the NFL) can pick defenses apart. He has spread the ball around to an NFL leading 15 different receivers (not including his 1 catch) but there are two receivers that I think will make the biggest impact, WR Marques Coltson (70cth 1,074yds 9td) and WR Robert Meachem (45cth 722yds 9td). Those will not be the only names you hear though, last years leading receiver WR Lance Moore, deep threat Devery Henderson, and loud mouth TE Jeremy Shockey. Head Coach Sean Payton calls the plays and Drew Brees disects the defenses in the NFL's #4 Passing offense, and that is going to be a huge challenge for the Colts' Secondary. With CB Jerraud Powers questionable for the game the Colts Secondary is going to be at a big disadvantage if he can't play. If he can't go than CBs Kelvin Hayden, Tim Jennings, and the rookie Jacob Lacey are in charge of holding down the Saints plethora of receivers. Back at Safety they have Melvin Bullit and Pro Bowler Antoine Bethea (95tkl 4int), who are going to have to make sure that the Saints receivers, who LOVE the big play, do not get past them. Drew Brees vs. injured secondary missing a starting S and possibly missing a starting QB.

Advantage: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints Rushing Offense vs. Colts Rushing Defense
Saints #6 Rushing Offense (131.6ypg)
Colts #24 Rushing Defense (126.5ypg/all)

Ask the average fan and they would believe that the Saints run the ball just few times a game and just as unsuccesful as the Colts. In fact listening to ESPN Radio this week Jason Smith had a eight minute preview on the Super Bowl during his late night show said that both of these teams only throw the ball and that it would be strictly about Passing. Wrong. The New Orleans Saints finished 6th in the NFL in rushing offense. In fact there have been times this year when the Saints Passing offense has struggled, 10 times Drew Brees has either been out passed or not topped 200 yards, and each time the rushing offense has picked up right where the passing game has left off. There is a reason the #4 Passing Offense is apart of the #1 Total Offense in the NFL, because of the ground game. The Saints have used a running back by committee approach throughout the season with 3 running backs having rushed the ball 50 times or more during the season. They are leading rusher Pierre Thomas (147att 793yds 6td), powerful Mike Bell (172att 654yds 5td), and do it all Reggie Bush (70att 390yds 5td; 47rec 335yds 3td). Together they have provided a spark for the Saints that has been missing since the days of a healthy (key word) Deuce McAllister. The Colts, whose interior line is below average and is on average about 40lbs smaller than the Saints O Line, has some solid LBs in leading tackler Clint Sessions (103tkl 0.5sck 2int) and Gary Brackett (99tkl 1.0sck 1int) and they are going to have a tough task trying to keep up with the different backs and their different styles. They have had trouble stopping the run all year long as they are 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and are 20th in the NFL in rushes allowed that resulted in a 1st down (23%). Stopping the run is going to be key for the Colts.

Advantage: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Saints Offensive Line vs. Colts Defensive Line
Saints OL Average Size: 6'4 322
Colts DL Average Size: 6'2 284

Everyone knows the Colts' Pro Bowl DEs Dwight Freeney (24tkl 13.5sck) and Robert Mathis (37tkl 9.5sck). But how many Non - Saints fans can name the 3 Pro Bowlers on the Saints Offensive Line? OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, OG Jahri Evans, and C Jonathan Goodwin were all named Pro Bowlers. This is one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL. This offensive line was #4 in sacks allowed and #3 in QB Hits allowed. And don't kid yourself, while he may still be listed as Questionable, Dwight Freeney will play on Sunday. There is no way he is going to be out. He may only be used as a situational pass rusher but that is really all he is in the first place. Freeney is not someone to plug up holes he is purely there to get after the QB. Whoever lines up against backup LT Jermon Bushrod has a chance to have a good day. Though he held his own against Minnesota's Pro Bowl DE Jared Allen he was beaten like a dog by a DeMarcus Ware which cost the Saints a win and gave them their first loss of the season. If Freeney is healthy enough to go every down than that would be a huge mismatch along the line. The mismatch the Saints are excited about however is the interior of the Offensive Line against the interior of the Colts Defensive line. LG Carl Nicks, C Goodwin, and RG Evans are perhaps the best interior combo in the NFL and should have their way with the two DTs the Colts are going to line up in Antonio Johnson and Daniel Muir, both are experiencing their first seasons as full time starters and the Colts Rush Defense has actually been worse than last years rushing defense (-4.5ypg/all). The DE's give the Colts a solid edge in the Pass Game but the Interior of the Saints Offensive Line should help out in the Run Game.

Advantage: EVEN

Coaching
Jim Caldwell (1st season as HC; 16-2 career record (2-0 playoffs))
Sean Payton (4th season as HC; 41-27 career record (3-1 playoffs))

I've got to wonder when I watch the Colts if this isn't more of Peyton Manning's team than it is Jim Caldwells. Last season the Colts defense was #11th in the NFL, this season they are 18th in the NFL. Last season the Colts rushing offense was 31st, this year they are 32nd. They only facet of the game they have improved is throwing the ball. Sean Payton is in his 4th season with the Saints and about to coach in his 5th playoff game. Neither of these coaches are very experienced. But One is more experienced than the other.

Advantage: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

After all of this I get the feeling that I am going to be watching a high scoring game where two elite QBs battle it out and which ever offense is the deadliest wins the game. But I think that the Saints will use their big edge in the run game and pound the ball, running the clock and keeping Peyton off the field. As they run the football succesfully the Colts secondary will come up to stop the run, much like they did against the Jets during the AFC Championship game when rookie QB Mark Sanchez threw for 257 yds and 2tds, so imagine what Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints receivers will do. As for some other factors, the Underdog is 6-3-1 ATS the spread the last 10 years, while the NFL is developing in to a league that can pass the football the last two Super Bowl Winners were teams that were better at running the football than their opponent, and whenever I see a high O/U the game tends to be more on the low scoring side. With that said I say.....

New Orleans Saints 31
Indianapolis Colts 24

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