Beef O'Brady Bowl Preview and SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl Recap

UCF QB Blake Bortles

Hey there guys,

As I said last night. It really feels good to be 3-0. I haven't been publishing my picks in awhile so I honestly expected to come out rusty and embarrass myself. Not the case so far, but it's still very early. In this post I will recap BYU's come from behind 23-6 win over San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl and then I will preview the Beef O'Brady's Bowl featuring Central Florida and Ball State. I know. You're excited.

Click the jump to read more.




BYU 23, San Diego State 6
My Pick: BYU 20-16

I expected this to be a low scoring game. BYU's great defense and inept offense proved to be even greater than I originally thought. The Aztecs had chances to grab a commanding lead all throughout the first three quarters, but couldn't get the job done. They settled for two field goals in the first half and would never score again.

Seriously, looking back on it how incredible is it to think that San Diego State was only up 6-3 despite leading the turnover battle three to nothing at one point? I do want to discredit some of the media analysis of this game real quick. San Diego State was not dominating this game heading into the fourth quarter. I saw it all over twitter and Rod Gilmore on ESPN obviously loved to say it.

San Diego State was only out-gaining the Cougars 246 to 213 heading into the fourth. That does not scream domination. What was really happening was that the Aztecs were given more opportunities to succeed and didn't take advantage of them. The score itself should have been larger, their lead was mirrored equally by the statistics.

The fourth quarter was entirely one-sided. By Kyle Van Noy. The Cougars started winning the field position battle. Going back to late in the third quarter, six of the eight Aztec positions started inside their own 20 (five inside their own ten). Following the Cougars third turnover of the night Van Noy, already in the midst of a great bowl performance decided to turn it into a legendary one, sacking Aztec QB Adam Dingwell in the endzone forcing a fumble which he would recover for the game's first touchdown. That was the first of five Aztec turnovers in the last 12 minutes of the game. A fumble and Cougar RB Jamaal Williams touchdown later and the Aztecs found their backs against the wall. That's when Van Noy struck again, picking off a Dingwell pass and returning it for his second touchdown of the game.

Aztec RB Adam Muema had the most impressive performance outside of Van Noy as he was able to rush for 103 yards on 16 carries. His physical running, quick feet and good vision on a national stage propelled Muema into some serious discussion of where he will be after next season as a junior. Also, Cougar WR Cody Hoffman had another good game with 10 receptions for 114 yards.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl

Central Florida (9-4) vs. Ball State (9-3)

6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN

Preview: Looking at this game straight up you would expect Central Florida to win this one by a touchdown or more. But momentum plays a big role in how a game can turn out and Ball State has a lot of it right now. The Cardinals have won six straight, including three over bowl teams (Central Michigan, Toledo and Ohio) on their way to a 9-win season. UCF has two of its last three, both to Tulsa. What really has to hurt is the overtime loss in the C-USA championship game.

UCF RB Latavius Murray

The Golden Knight's offense is led by their All-Conference QB Blake Bortles (214.4 yds/gm 22td 7int; rush - 205yds 7td). Central Florida is a team that loves to run the ball, but make no mistake they are going to have an advantage in the passing game. Ball State's pass defense has allowed over 250 yards seven times this season, allowing 25 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. And they aren't going to be able to focus on just one receiver. Bortles has spread the ball around; the Golden Knights have six players with at least 21 receptions this season (all have at least 198 yards receiving). On the ground senior RB Latavius Murray has been effective rushing for over 112.1 yds of total offense per game.



The Cardinals are not great on defense, allowing 31.5 points per game. Junior DT Nathan Ollie (44tkl 8.5tfl) and all-conference LB Travis Freeman (119tkl) will lead the charge on slowing down the run game. A tall order for sure. Sophomore CB Eric Patterson (60tkl 8pbu 2int) is decent, but he can only cover one receiver. If the Cardinals are going to have any success on defense they are going to need to have a big game out of Freeman and all-conference DE Jonathan Newsome (51tkl 8.5sk 2qbh).

Ball State QB Keith Wenning

Offensively, the Cardinals have one huge question remaining: Who is going to be playing QB? All-Conference junior Keith Wenning (261.6yds 65.5% 22td 10int) had a great year but was lost with an injury in the win over Ohio, then backup Kelly Page was lost in the season finale. Wenning's status is expected to start, but how he will perform on a broken ankle is questionable. If he can't go then freshman Kyle Kamman will see his first serious action. Regardless of who is playing QB they will have a good receiver to throw to in senior all-conference WR Willie Snead (82rec 1070yds 7td). Hoping to take pressure off of Wenning is sophomore all-conference RB Jawhan Edwards (218att 1321yds 14td).



UCF head coach George O'Leary's teams usually put out a good defense. This season they have had some trying times, but have several players that should make an impact on today's game including a pair of safeties that are solid against the run in all-conference Ken Ishmael (116tkl 5tfl 3int) and sophomore Clayton Geathers (107tkl 4tfl 5pbu). They also boast three linebackers with over 90 tackles each in Terrance Plummer (102tkl 6tfl), Jonathan Davis (94tkl 9tfl) and Ray Shipman (91tkl 3.5tfl). All-Conference DE Troy Davis (65tkl 6.5sk) should be able to put pressure on whoever is back at QB.

Watchability Grade: You hear Central Florida vs. Ball State and you probably don't do any further investigating into the game. You just plan on watching something else. Give this game a second look. It has a pair of 9-win teams in a game that could rival the New Mexico Bowl in excitement. I give this a grade of C+

Projections:  UCF 32, Ball State 30
Pass Yards: UCF 227 yards (7.6 yds/att), Ball State 260 yards (6.4 yds/att)
Rush Yards: UCF 189 yards (5.0 yds/att), Ball State 205 yards (4.4 yds/att)

My Pick: I keep looking at this game and thinking that Central Florida should be a heavy favorite here, but momentum is going to play a huge role in this game. UCF has an advantage over Ball State's defense and with George O'Leary. The Cardinals special teams will keep them in the game but I expect for the Golden Knights to win a close one 27-21.