If you've been following you'll know that I'm off to a decent start. 2-0. It feels nice. Probably won't last long though. I've got 46 points in vs. Phil Steele's 42 so far in the bowl pick 'em on ESPN. We're both 2-0, but I've got confidence in my picks.
Click the jump for my picks for today's bowl game.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (7-5) vs. San Diego State (9-3)
7:00 p.m. CST on ESPN
Preview: If you like defense then this is the game for you. And it's not because both defenses are good, but because BYU's defense is REALLY good and their offense is, well, not so good. They have only allowed 20 points or more four times this season and three of those were losses. LBs Brandon Ogletree (91 tackles) and 3rd Team All-American LB Kyle Van Noy (44tkl 18.5tfl 11.5sk) lead the nation's the third best defense.
The Aztecs will bring a solid run game to the table with sophomore 2nd-team All-MWC RB Adam Muema (211att 1355yds 16td) and senior RB Walter Kazee (161att 822yds 8td) getting the bulk of the carries. They run behind a pretty solid offensive line featuring all-conference Nik Embernate and Alec Johnson. Former Oregon State QB Ryan Katz began the season as the starter, but after a fractured ankle he didn't finish the season. Sophomore Adam Dingwell has taken over the last five, throwing for over 150 yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. All-Conference TE Gavin Esocbar (41rec 519yds 6td) leads the team in receiving.
On offense the Cougars are still working on who the starting QB is going to be. Riley Nelson (223.4 yds/gm 13td 12int) started the year, but was banged up and missed the last game at New Mexico State. Senior James Lark started the last game throwing for 384 yards and 6 tds over. Nelson wasn't talking to reporters as late as Tuesday, so I'm assuming Lark is the QB. Regardless of who is playing QB, there is only one player on the Cougars attack that you should know about and that is junior WR Cody Hoffman (90rec 1134yds 11td).
All-Conf Aztecs LB Jake Fely (86 tkl 11.5tfl 7sk) and DB Leon McFadden (59tkl 10pbu 2int) will do their best to slow down the Cougars pass game. DT Same Meredith (31tkl 4.5tfl 1sk) is a force on the line and should make things tough for Cougars RB Jamaal Williams to find any running room.
Watchability Grade: These are two moderately successful mid-major teams that spent the last few years as rivals until BYU went independent. The Aztecs head coach downplays the idea of this being the rivalry but you have to think the familiarity is going to draw attention to this game. Still, with the lack of offense and neither team being ranked I doubt this is going to be one that people miss their stories for. I give this one a C.
Projections: BYU 27, San Diego State 21
Pass Yards: BYU 249 yards (6.9 yds/att), 142 yards (6.8 yds/att)
Rush Yards: BYU 144 yards (3.7 yds/att), 123 yards (3.5 yds/att)
My Pick: Rocky Long, a former defensive coordinator, is a good head coach but the Aztecs are lacking defensively, which means I think whomever starts at QB for the Cougars should have a decently successful day. I'm not sold on Dingwell's ability to lead an offense, meaning the Cougars should be able to load up against the run. BYU will win an ugly game 20-16.
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