2010 Week 10 SEC Picks

Hey there guys,

As explained in yesterday's Rumblings I was at Ole Miss this past weekend getting everything set for my return to the glorious piece of heaven that is Oxford, MS. This week I am picking back up with my SEC picks.

This week has some really boring games, (3 games vs FCS; 2 vs Non BCS) but it also has some very interesting games, such as Florida at Vanderbilt, Arkansas at South Carolina, and the Saban Bowl. Florida is continuing to test out their new 3 QB system, and cannot afford to stumble in Nashville as they need to win out to lay claim to the SEC East for the third season in a row; if Arkansas can close out the season with four wins (three against ranked foes) then a two loss Razorback team has a legit shot to make a BCS Bowl as an at-large, while South Carolina needs to make sure they are not looking ahead to next weeks "SEC East Championship Game" in the Swamp; and Finally Alabama is playing to keep themselves in control of their own destiny in the SEC West race while LSU is playing for a BCS bowl. Should be fun.

Anyway guys here goes, and as always you know I love to hear what you think.

SEC

Florida @ Vanderbilt

Just hearing the names Florida and Vanderbilt in the same sentence usually makes your average SEC fan chuckle. This game probably should not be any different. I say probably because there are many uncertainties heading into this game. Such as how will the no huddle three headed Gator offense do on the road when a team has had a week to prepare for it? Last week was a fantastic time to whip out a new offense, with Brantley, Burton, and Jordan Reed all taking snaps, and the normally stout Georgia defense was never able to grasp what was going on. Vanderbilt has a better than you may think defense and a very solid front seven lead by MLB Chris Marve. I see the Gators struggling out of the gate at first on offense, but dominating the second half. Why? Because Vanderbilt's defense is going to be tired from being on the field all game long. Vanderbilt's offense has the worst time of possession in the SEC at roughly 26 minutes per game, and usually they have nothing to show for it (averaging 10.4ppg in conference play). Florida's offense may have struggled some this season, but their defense most certainly has not. Vanderbilt's offense is lead by two pretty good backs in Zac Stacy and Warren Norman (both also return kicks) and after that..well.. they have a decent TE? QB Larry Williams can be downright abysmal sometimes and you certainly do not want to do that against these corners at Florida. Florida does have some depth concerns at the S position after true frosh Jonathan Dowling was dismissed this past week. I don't think it will be a factor this weekend. Florida controls the second half and cruises into next week's game against South Carolina with some momentum and some renewed faith in themselves.

My Pick: Florida 31 Vanderbilt 13
Projected Passing Yards: Florida 264.2 (7.6 yards per attempt) / Vanderbilt 139.0 (6.7ypa)
Proj Rushing Yards: Florida 180.2 (4.0ypa) / Vanderbilt 105.6 (3.9ypa)

Idaho St @ Georgia

This shouldn't be much of a game. I would've called for a bit of a down game for Georgia, considering last week's tough loss to Florida, and the many rumors swirling around Head Coach Mark Richt's future with the program, but Idaho St is just awful. No talent awful. Georgia wins big.

My Pick: Georgia 45 Idaho St 3

Charleston Southern @ Kentucky

What was I just saying about awful? Kentucky is actually to get a boost this weekend as Derrick Locke, in a sudden turnaround, has been cleared by doctors to play. Locke, who couldn't hold onto a football while participating in non contact drills earlier this week, is expected to play, according to Head Coach Joker Phillips. I guess we'll see how he does.

My Pick: Kentucky 49 Charleston Southern 17

UT-Chattanooga @ #2 Auburn

What were we talking about?

My Pick: Auburn 56 UT-Chattanooga 14

*GAME OF THE WEEK*

#6 Alabama @ #10 LSU

I'm sure by this point in the week I don't have to remind everyone that the winner of this game over the past five seasons has either won the West or gone on to play in a BCS bowl game. If Alabama wins they control their own destiny in the SEC West race, as they still host Auburn on Nov 26th, and if LSU wins they set themselves up perfectly to grab an at large bid to an BCS Bowl. Alabama has won two in a row but the last three meetings have been decided by an average of 7.3 points, so expect a close one. I fully expect for the Bayou Bengals to come up guns blazing, because this game could be the one that saves Les Miles or breaks the ice from underneath him. I look for the Bengals to bring eight to nine defenders in the box to stop Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram, much the same way that Florida, South Carolina, and Ole Miss did, all with success, and force QB Greg McElroy to win the game offensively for the Tide. If you remember last years game, McElroy did not play very well, he had an interception overturned, and 73 of his 276 yards came off of a screen to Julio Jones. While his numbers look good his confidence has been visibly shaken since the loss to South Carolina. He had a good game last week against Tennessee but it will be interesting to see how effective McElroy will be against a vigorous pass rush and a strong secondary lead by Heisman 2nd place candidate Patrick Peterson. If he succeeds then Alabama should be able to get the Bengals front seven off the line of scrimmage and control the time of possession. For the Tigers the problem is under center. Jordan Jefferson has started every game so far this season and as a passer he has looked a lot like Lindsey Lohan's arrest record. As a runner though he seems to have found his stride in the option over the last two to three games, making big plays with his feet, many of them crucial third downs. Jarrett Lee is the other option and up until their last game at Auburn he has shown to be a better pure passer, though against the depleted (and bad) Tigers' secondary he was really unable to get anything going. Stevan Ridley has been the lone bright spot offensively for the Bengals this season, but much like I expect LSU to bunch up on the run against Bama, I expect the Tide to do the same against him. This game will come down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes, and by the way this season has progressed that is going to be Alabama. I expect all three QBs to struggle in this game, but as weird as this next statement may seem McElroy has an unusual advantage here. When pressured he does not force the football. He just takes a sack. Jefferson and Lee both try to force throws, causing interceptions. All three need to learn how to throw the ball away. I think Alabama comes in focused, hearing the nation talk every week about Auburn's unstoppable attack I expect the Tide to start mowing over opponents on their way to a huge showdown in the Iron Bowl.

My Pick: Alabama 23 LSU 20
Proj Pass: Alabama 165.0 (6.7ypa) / LSU 161.7 (6.3ypa)
Proj Rush: Alabama 139.5 (4.3ypa) / LSU 150.7 (3.9ypa)

Louisiana @ Ole Miss (advanced calculation)

The Rebels had all kinds of hopes headed into the season, for unfathomable reasons, and it has shown, as they are now 3-5, and in a race with #18 Arkansas and #20 Mississippi St to not finish last. Or at least by themselves. Of course that requires both of those RANKED teams to lose out, and for Ole Miss to win out. By the way that last sentence is not an altogether crazy possibility. But that is for another post. Ole Miss is coming off of three consecutive losses, all ranked opponents. The Rebels are a little banged up this week as three defensive starters, MLB Jonathan Cornell, DE Gerald Rivers, and FS Damien Jackson were all amongst the walking wounded during practice this week. I expect the Rebels to play a lot of youngsters this week. And the coaches hope they are prepared to stop the pass. Louisiana may not have done much this season but they are very effective through the air, as well they should be, because their run game is awful. I look for QB Chris Masson to lead a potent Ragin Cajun attack in the first half, confusing the Rebel youngsters and getting the secondary back on their heels. In the second half however I look for talent and depth to win out (as bad as Ole Miss, UL is worse). Offensively the Rebels should be fine, Jeremiah Masoli, who has been criticized for trying to do too much should be able to find holes in the Cajun secondary and lanes up front to run through. If Ole Miss is to play in the post season they are going to need to go 3-1 in November. I think they start off 1-0.

My Pick: Ole Miss 49 Louisiana 28
Proj Pass: Ole Miss 257.6 (7.7ypa, 66%, 2.3td 1.4int, 148.3 QB rat) / Louisiana 206.3 (7.4ypa, 59%, 2.0td 0.4int, 135.40 QB rat)
Proj Rush: Ole Miss 229.9 (4.7 ypa, 2.1td) / Louisiana 64.3 (3.7 ypa, 1.5td)

#18 Arkansas @ #19 South Carolina

This game really doesn't mean much for the conference standings, as Arkansas is already out of it, and with one conference loss less than Florida, South Carolina can still lose here, win next week and win the SEC East. This is a very interesting game, because Arkansas is still fighting for a major bowl berth. Each teams offensive strength is the other teams defensive weakness. Arkansas has not done well stopping the run game this season, and this week they have to face the leading SEC Frosh of the Year candidate Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina's secondary, though filled with skilled athletes, has struggled at times stopping the pass, and this week they face pre season Heisman candidate Ryan Mallett. Normally I would go with the home team in this situation. Normally I would go with the team that can run the ball better in this situation. Normally I would go with the better coach in this situation. BUT I think that South Carolina will not put much stock into this game, looking ahead to next week's game in the Swamp, with the SEC East on the line. Ryan Mallett gets back WR Joe Adams and I expect them to move the ball with relative ease, while Stephen Garcia looks like the Stephen Garcia of Old. Razorbacks FTW

My Pick: Arkansas 31 South Carolina 28
Proj Pass: Arkansas 304.4 (8.4 ypa) / South Carolina 237.7 (8.0ypa)
Proj Rush: Arkansas 96.7 (3.4ypa) / South Carolina 194.9 (4.6ypa)

Tennessee @ Memphis

This game actually means a lot for the Volunteers. True Frosh QB Tyler Bray is getting his first start at QB in a game that should be a warm up for his first conference game start vs. Ole Miss. Not to mention if Tennessee sweeps November they go bowling. November has @ Memphis, vs Ole Miss, @ Vandy, and vs. Kentucky. Even with their struggles this season any UT Fan (and player) has to believe they have a legit shot to make that happen. And it all starts here this weekend against a fairly dismal Memphis team that has been nothing short of awful this season. UT's biggest problem has been their depth late in games, though I expect this game to be over with by halftime. Vols win, and Tyler Bray has a good start to what looks like a promising career.

My Pick: Tennessee 37 Memphis 20
Proj Pass: Tennessee 319.8 (9.2ypa) / Memphis 168.4 (7.8ypo)
Proj Rush: Tennessee 171.1 (4.3ypa) / Memphis 122.4 (4.2ypa)

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Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think about my picks.

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Thanks for reading,

BATTEMAN