2010 Iron Bowl Preview

Alabama WR Julio Jones

Hey there guys,

I have lived in the state of Alabama for the better part of 21 years, and I must say that this is the most hyped up Iron Bowl that I can remember.  On one side you have 11-0 #2 Auburn, fighting for their first BCS National Championship appearance, and on the other you have 9-2 #11 Alabama, who with a win on Friday, could possibly set themselves up as potential BCS At-Large candidates.

The hatred is visible all over Facebook and Twitter, and this promises to be one of the best games of the season.

I have been right on the money for this game the past three seasons, as I picked Auburn 17-13 in my first season of picking games in '07, the final was Auburn 17-10 (-3 points off); I picked Alabama to crush Auburn 35-3 in '08, and many of you laughed at me and questioned how I could say the Iron Bowl wouldn't be close.  The Final was Alabama 36-0 (-4 points); and last season I picked Auburn to keep it close, but for Alabama to win 28-21.  The final?  Alabama 26-21 (-2 points).

Want to know what my pick is going to be this season?  Find out after the jump.

IRON BOWL

1:30 pm (CST)

CBS

Line: Alabama -4 (58)

Bryant-Denny Stadium (Grass; 101,821 cap)

Alabama Passing Offense vs. Auburn Passing Defense
My Rank: 
Alabama #4 SEC vs. Auburn #9 SEC
Stats (Conference Play)
Alabama Pass Off: 236.7 yds/game 67.9% 8.5 yds/att +7 TD/Int Ratio 153.31 QB Rating
Auburn Pass Def: 239.7 yds/game 62.2% 7.2 yds/att -8 TD/Int Ratio 137.97 QB Rating

Alabama is a team that is known for the running game with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, but this season they have become a more balanced offense, and with the talent they have at WR it is easy to see why.  Julio Jones (65rec 885yds 13.6avg 6td) and Marquis Maze (32rec 467yds 14.6avg 2td) have been among the top 15 receivers in the SEC so far this season.  Bama's passing game very rarely attacks down field, (only 6% of passing plays beyond 10 yards go for 30yds or more) but they have successfully worked screens, and short, quick routes all season long.  I don't think I'm crazy for thinking that 6'2 Neiko Thorpe (35tkl 6pbu) will be tasked with covering the 6'4 Jones, while 5'9 Demond Washington (34tkl 5.5tfl 1sk 5pbu 2int) will have the pleasure of taking on 5'10 Maze.  If not then Alabama will have the advantage of some serious mismatches all game long.  It will be interesting to see just how Auburn's safeties cover this game, they normally play way off of the football.  Against Georgia and LSU if they weren't blitzing or in a short yardage situation the safeties were at least 20 yards off of the football.  Alabama may be a more balanced offense, but I would think that they will try to play this game a little bit closer to the line to help in run support.  If they do move up I wonder if Alabama will attack deep.  QB Greg McElroy (217.3 yds/game 70.3% 9.2 yds/att +12 TD/Int Ratio 165.59 QB rat) does not have a very strong arm but if the Auburn's safeties come up enough I think they will take a shot down field.  McElroy has had a decent year as far as the numbers go, but at times he seems lost and has taken a lot of sacks, especially outside the pocket when he should be throwing the football away.  He has been doing a lot better on clutch downs as his completion % on 3rd downs this season is up to 69% (59% '09), and Alabama converts 41.4% of their third downs where McElroy throws the ball (34.3% '09).  Auburn's secondary actually stiffens as the game goes along as their yards per quarter drop with every quarter, and so does their opponents completion % and TDs.  While Auburn's much maligned secondary may not be as bad as many think I believe Alabama can move the ball effectively through the air, however if this game comes down to a final drive I don't have a lot of confidence that McElroy can get the job done.

Advantage: Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama Rushing Offense vs. Auburn Rushing Defense
My Rank: 
Alabama #9 SEC vs. Auburn #4 SEC
Stats (Conference Play):
Alabama Rush Off: 145.7 yds/game 4.3 yds/att 10td
Auburn Rush Def: 122.6 yds/game 4.1 yds/att 11td

First I know that many of you think I am stupid for having Alabama's rushing offense as ninth best in the SEC.  That is fine and dandy, but I'll remind all of you Alabama fans of a 36 yard (1.9 yds/att) rushing effort against South Carolina, or a 100 yard (2.9 yds/att) performance against Ole Miss (my #12 defense in the SEC), and a 102 yard (3.3 yds/att) game against LSU.  Your Heisman winning running back Ingram has hit the century mark against ONE SEC opponent this season, Arkansas, and since he is averaging 64.3 yds/game against conference opponents.  Your other stud back, Trent Richardson, has also hit the century mark just once this season against conference opponents (Tennessee), and in the other conference games he is averaging 48.8 ydsQB's hands) and they can wear down a defense.  That being said Auburn is one of the better run d's in the nation.  Keep in mind they held South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore to just 33 yards on 14 carries.  Outside of the South Carolina game this rushing defense has not been "dominant" per say but they have been good.  They are not impenetrable though.  Clemson hit them for 187 yards, Arkansas, while also destroying the Tiger's secondary, kept them on their heals averaging 4.9 yards/att (138 yards), and Ole Miss ran all over them for 218 yards (7.0 yds/att).  Alabama is a more conventional style attack, but I would not be surprised to see them use a little bit more misdirection, i.e. more of the wildcat package, and get the ball in WR Jones' hands some as well.  Auburn has a very solid LB corps, lead by OLB Josh Bynes (58tkl 5.0tfl).  One thing to look for with the Auburn LBs is that, while they are good, they are also a bit undersized with only Bynes weighing in at over 230lbs, OLB Darren Bates weighs 203 and MLB Craig Stevens comes in at 228.  With smaller backers I have to wonder if Auburn can go head to head with a powerful rushing offense for four quarters.

Advantage: EVEN

Alabama Offensive Line vs. Auburn Front Seven
My Rank:
Alabama #5 SEC vs. Auburn #2 SEC
Stats (Conference Play)
Alabama O-Line: 6.4 TFL allowed/game 1.0 Sack allowed/game 4.3 yards/carry
Auburn Front 7: 3.7 TFL/game 2.3 Sacks/game 4.1 yards/carry allowed 6.3 QB Hurries/game
Avg. Size
Alabama O-Line: 6'4 306lbs
Auburn D-Line: 6'4 277lbs

As a former offensive lineman its really easy to sit here and say that whoever wins the trenches is going to win the game.  Both of these teams are run heavy, and a running game will never be effective without good offensive line play (and a QB can't throw without pass protection, remember that).  This is a very big key for the Tide, because they are power running team that relies on the strength and the push of their offensive line, and they have faced their toughest challenge this season as they are getting more than just defensive lineman to block and often the number of tackles for loss allowed can be attributed more to a run blitz than it can be blamed on the front five of the Tide.  They will be facing their toughest test all season though in attempting to stop Auburn DT Nick Fairley, who is eighth in the country with 18.0 TFL this season.  I would not be surprised to see the Tide double team him all day long with C William Vlachos and whichever Guard (Barrett Jones or Chance Warmack) he lines up in front of.  The other Auburn DL are solid but they do not compare to Fairley and I think Bama even has an ok advantage on in rushing situations.  On passing downs however Alabama is really going to have to work together because Auburn lives in the backfield under DC Roof's aggressive defense, and they make at least eight appearances every game, tops in the SEC, and that is not something that Bama fans want to see, pressure on McElroy.  One of the great match ups to watch is going to be LT James Carpenter against DE Antoine Carter (4.5 sacks).  If Carpenter can keep him in check than McElroy won't have to worry AS much.

Advantage: EVEN

Auburn Passing Offense vs. Alabama Passing Defense
My Rank:
Auburn #6 SEC vs. Alabama #2 SEC

Stats (Conference Play)
Auburn Pass Off: 161.3 yds/game 68.1% 8.4 yds/att +7 TD/Int Ratio 158.40 QB Rating
Alabama Pass Def: 197.7 yds/game 56.9% 6.6 yds/att +5 Int/TD Ratio 112.13 QB Rating

Just like Alabama is a run first team, though they are a completely different style of run than Alabama.  Whereas Alabama runs a Pro Style offense, with the occasional wild cap, and the occasion pistol formation, Auburn runs a spread option.  Kind of.  They mostly run a read option though you will never know how many back will be in the backfield, where they will be going prior to the snap of the ball, and where they will be going once the ball is snapped.  Fly sweeps, reverses, and even the statue of liberty play is all apart of the regular play calling.  As crazy and confusing as that sounds for a defense, they are not unstoppable.  I have brought it up week after week, but Mississippi State was able to keep Cam Newton in check, and did just enough for the other play-makers on that offense to not beat them.  The end result was 348 yards and 17 points.  Both are season lows for the Tiger offense.  As far as the passing game goes, don't let anyone tell you that Cameron Newton is just a "running" quarterback.  He gets paid too much to be just that.  Cam has a rocket for an arm, above average accuracy, and a very quick release considering that he has the wingspan of a flexible giraffe.  He likes to attack deep, but that is not because he is just another Jamarcus Russell, it is because teams are trying to stop him from running so they are bringing in 8-9-10 guys in the box to stop the run, and deep threat Darvin Adams is torching them in man coverage.  Easy.  I don't think it will be that easy for Newton this time around.  I expect him to have his most frustrating game on the ground yet, forcing him to become a more conventional quarterback.  That is going to be very tough for him in my humble opinion.  While everyone remembers what Alshon Jeffrey, and Reuben Randle were able to do to the Alabama secondary, they all seem to forget the other games.  Like, for instance, the seven games, a league high, where they have held opponents to 50% or less.  The fact that for the season, the Alabama secondary is +13 in Int/TD ratio.  One thing about Newton, is that he has not thrown more than 25 passes in a game all season.  If Alabama can slow him down, and force Auburn to try and throw the ball more, my question is how is he going to be able to read a Nick Saban defense?  The Tide never run the same coverage twice in a series.  They never blitz you the same way in a series.  Newton has not had to make all of these decisions before, for more than a quarter.  How is he going to react when a defense adjusts to his passing game, instead of his running game?  We all know he can make a cut or a quick punch stiff-arm and get by you with his feet.  But when facing a talented, and fast secondary like Alabama's is he going to be able to make plays with his arm all game long?  I have seen Nick Saban's secondary, yes this young secondary that receives as much crap from Alabama fans as JPW, get the job done more in these situations more often than seeing Cam win a game with his arm. 

Advantage: Alabama Crimson Tide

Auburn Rushing Offense vs. Alabama Passing Offense
My Rank: 
Auburn #1 SEC vs. Alabama #2 SEC
Stats (Conference Play)
Auburn Rush Off: 323.3 yds/game 6.3 yds/att 23 TD
Alabama Rush Def: 131.3 yds/game 3.9 yds/att 5 TD

This will be the second 3-4 that Auburn has seen this season, as they faced it against Georgia two weeks ago, but there is a very strong difference in the Nick Saban 3-4 and the Todd Grantham 3-4, and that is that Saban has the players that he wants playing in his system.  Georgia was still transitioning.  And while the final numbers point to Auburn burning Georgia, keep in mind that Cam had one to two good runs in the first half.  He wasn't breaking 10-15 yard runs.  Georgia was meeting him at the line of scrimmage, holding him to maybe two to three yards per carry.  In the second half they focused entirely on Cam, and Auburn's stable of running backs, who I will get to shortly, was able to loosen the pressure off Cam, allowing him to play SuperCam (Young Tyrod Tayler mobility, Tim Tebow toughness, Ryan Mallett size; kryptonite sold separately) again. Newton is just your worst nightmare with the ball in his hands.  He is not impossible to stop but he is going to require your best effort.  And discipline.  You have to be disciplined when trying to stop Auburn's run game, because if you get too focused on stopping JUST Cam Newton than either Michael Dyer (78.1 yds/game 6.3 yds/att 5td), Onterio McCalebb (62.1 yds/game 8.8 yds/att 9td), or Mario Fanin (36.7 yds/game 6.7 yds/att 4td) will burn you.  Sidenote: Cam Newton and his backup singers are all ranked in the Top Twenty in the SEC in rushing so far this season.  Simply put this is one of the best rushing offenses in modern football lead by a very creative OC in Gus Mahlzahn.  Back to Nick Saban.  This may be the best clashing of football minds in the modern era.  Nick Saban's defense vs. Gus Mahlzahns offense.  It just sounds fun to watch.  Back to the 3-4, Alabama will not tire out, or get overly focused like Georgia did.  Remember Grantham was an NFL coach, who is not used to game-planning for an offense like Mahlzahn's.  Saban has.  In fact it took a bit of trickery for Malhzahn to get that offense working against the Tide in last season's Iron Bowl.  This is going to be Newton's toughest test running the football.  Auburn fans don't bring up LSU's defense, as their weakness was pointed out last week against Ole Miss, in that they have a ridiculous amount of trouble with a misdirection.  It was like using sarcasm on a hard working idiot.  No matter how hard they tried they never got the joke.  Alabama has the four most talented linebackers in the conference lead by Dont'a Hightower, and I just have a hard time seeing Auburn being able to bust long runs like they have been all season on this defense.

Advantage: EVEN

Auburn Offensive Line vs. Alabama Front Seven
My Rank:
Auburn #1 SEC vs. Alabama #6 SEC
Stats (Conference Play)
Auburn O-Line: 3.2 TFL allowed/game 2.5 Sacks allowed/game 6.3 yards/att
Alabama Front 7: 3.7 TFL/game 2.0 Sacks/game 3.9 yards allowed/att 3.9 QB hurries/game
Avg. Size
Auburn: 6'5 307
Alabama: 6'3 312

The only defense that has been truly able to slow down this offense (Miss St) was able to control (not dominate) and confuse the Auburn offensive line.  Not an easy task.  Auburn may very well not only have the best offensive line in the SEC but one of the top offensive lines in the country.  They have potential All-Americans in C Ryan Pugh and LT Lee Ziemba, and an All-Conference OG in Byron Isom.  That being said Alabama does have a very formidable front three, but they are lead by All-American DE Marcel Dareus.  Alabama's does not have the great numbers of a dominated line, but they do exactly what Mississippi State was able to do.  They control the offensive line.  Keep in mind that LSU and Ole Miss both gained the majority of their yards on the outside, using misdirection and reverses.  Tennessee just had a good day against them, touche Tennessee.  This is another match up that is hard to pick a side, because of how good each side is, I'll have to side with Auburn, though only slightly because of their experience.

Advantage: Auburn Tigers

The Rest:
(quick summary of the other factors in this game)
Coaching
Advantage: Alabama
Don't kid yourself Auburn fans, the reason you are this good is not because of Chizik.  He hired a great assistant in Mahlzahn.  Roof has been a whiff thus far.  Saban has two National Championships at two different SEC Schools. 
Special Teams: 
Advantage: Even
Both teams have solid return games and decent punting.  I would feel comfortable with either teams kicker lining up for a game winning shot.

Conclusion:

Did you know that on the same hand you can count the number of road games that Auburn has faced this season and on the same hand count the number of ranked opponents they have faced on the road.  A great debate that I have been having right now is what has been Auburn's toughest road test thus far?  At Kentucky, with 70,000+ or at an under capacity Scott Field against ranked Mississippi State?  You never know it could always be at Ole Miss and those grey uniforms?  Nothing like sexy to get your mind off the game.  But seriously Auburn, and more importantly Cam Newton, have yet to have faced an environment like they are about to face this weekend.  And why should that bother Auburn fans?  Because you have barely escaped the game at Mississippi State, and you barely escaped the game at Kentucky.  They faced 70,000 at Kentucky?  They are going to face 101,000+ this weekend.  Alabama is a better football team than UK, MSU, or Miss, and the fans certainly have something else that those other schools don't: a deep hatred of Auburn.  I expect this Alabama defense to be playing at a higher level thanks to the fifth largest stadium in the country packed with people that want to see them excel.  It is going to be really hard for Auburn to be able to communicate and look for plenty of mistakes.  Alabama kept Florida from a National Championship last season, and I expect them to keep Auburn from one this season.

My Pick: 
Alabama 28 Auburn 23
Proj Pass: 
Alabama 239.6 yards (7.6 ypa) / Auburn 174.8 yards (7.6 ypa) 
Proj Rush: 
Alabama 159.1 yards (4.1 ypa) / Auburn 214.8 yards (4.5 ypa)

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Credit to Duke, and GenPatton for helping me on some of the research for this game, and credit to cfbstats.com for all of the numbers you see.  

Calculations, projections and power rankings are created and owned by me. 

If you have any questions or comments either leave a comment below, leave us a wall post on our fan page, hit me up on Twitter @WTLandSharksAre, or email us at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

Thanks for reading. 

BATTEMAN