Minnesota's New Head Coach?
Hey there guys,
I'll be honest. I'm a numbers guy. But I also miss writing my opinions on the goings and comings of the sports world. It's college football season though so I'll stay focused on that for right now. I'll focus a little bit of bias on the SEC, because I live in the wonderful southeast and so do a majority of my readers (though according to my blogging statistics someone in Alaska and Japan have visited this site on multiple occasions).
I'll be talking a bit about some of the coaching rumors that are currently going around, some more conference expansion talk, and some general stuff in the SEC.
Anyway here we go
NCAA FOOTBALL
- Quick Statement
First and foremost I would like for everyone to take a moment of silence for Mississippi St DE Nick Bell. No one should ever die at 20.
- Coaching Carousel
For those who have not heard there is at least 1 coaching job available, and that is Minnesota, who fired Tim Brewster a few weeks back, after having solidified Minnesota as the Big Ten's Vanderbilt for the last two seasons. Other names that are out there are Colorado's Dan Hawkins, Georgia's Mark Richt, Notre Dame's Brian Kelly, Michigan's Rich Rodriguez, Washington State's Paul Wulf, Miami's Randy Shannon, Illinois' Ron Zook, Maryland's Ralph Friedgen, North Carolina's Butch Davis and Texas A&M's Mike Sherman. I fully expect for the first few names to be gone.
Dan Hawkins has nothing to show to his name since he has been the head coach at Colorado, except an appearance in the Independence Bowl in his second season. Woooo. The current talk about Hawkins is not IF they fire him but WHEN. The AD does not want the season to completely fold I guess. Personally I think he should be looking for a new coach NOW. They are about to make a move to another conference and they are already going to be rebuilding when they get there. Why wait? It's not like Colorado (3-5) is going to win out and make a bowl game. With all of the rumors about when Hawkins will be dismissed are just going to hurt their play. And it will hurt recruiting. What is a kid going to do when his other options are making strides towards the future and the recruit has no idea who his coach is going to be? Get a head start. The faster you start looking the faster you will find a coach and have time to salvage recruiting. They do have some interesting names on the list for Colorado. The first few names that I have heard about are former Oregon Head Coach Mike Belloti, former Texas Tech coach Mike, and Coordinators Brent Venables (DC Oklahoma) and Jim McElwain (OC Alabama). Being completely honest I don't think Belloti is going to anywhere. He chose to retire and become an AD. I realize that doesn't mean much as many coaches have gone into retirement only to come out and coach again but a majority of them come back to save their school (Nevada's Chris Ault, K-State's Bill Snyder). Mike Leach is a strong possibility because he has been clear about wanting to return to coaching. But I think he may also be waiting on a bigger name. And less turn around. Colorado does not currently have the players to run a Mike Leach offense, and that might take 3-4 years to completely get ready. Question for Alabama fans, how sad would you be to see McElwain leave? All that I have talked too continue to question the Alabama offensive play calling and it doesn't take an experienced set of eyes to see that QB Greg McElroy is not playing well in his 2nd year starting under McElwain. Colorado hopes that Colorado doesn't take McElwain. I think they should go after Venables. Build defense first. Venables' Defense has had some problems this season at Oklahoma but that is fine. A decent defense can win you football games in the Pac-10, hell look at Arizona. Arizona's progression to the spotlight all started when they built a defense first, and than focused on offense.
Speaking of interesting names Minnesota has a few that they are going after. Oregon's Chip Kelly (laughs) and Stanford's Jim Harbuagh (laughs). Good luck guys. Some interesting names that I do not think will accept are Belloti, Boise State's Chris Peterson, and TCU's Gary Patterson. Again, Belloti will probably stay at Oregon, but Peterson and Patterson are both long shots, but I think they are possibilities. If Oregon remains undefeated, and either Auburn, or one loss Alabama come out of the SEC, and neither Boise St or TCU get to play for a National Championship, how are these guys going to react? Are they going to wait and pray that a playoff eventually happens? I have heard knocks on both of these coaches for building programs without legit competition. What if they want to prove they are for real? Building Minnesota, while having to play Wisconsin, Ohio St, Penn St, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, and soon to be Nebraska. If you can successfully build a program in that environment who can doubt you? Not to mention you have a legit shot at playing for National Championship. No one doubts your schedule. You can play those easy teams in your out of conference schedule like Toledo and Wyoming (Peterson) or Tennessee Tech and SMU (Patterson) and get away with it. I'm not saying that they will leave, but as long as the BCS is in place there is a legitimate shot that they could get impatient, and want to go somewhere else, though I think both hold out for better opportunities. Other options on the table for Minnesota are three ex-coaches in former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinksi, former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt, Leach, and former Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer. All of these guys have an *by their name. Leavitt and Leach have been let go for abusing players, Jagodzinksi wants to coach in the NFL, and Fulmer sucks. I actually see Leach considering this place. Minnesota does have the players to run his style of offense, though they are a little more run based, and it's a place for him to start anew, but I think he would leave if a bigger school came calling. Jagodzinksi is only a short term solution, because if brought the team back to a bowl game he would go leave to be a position coach in the NFL. Fulmer is another short term solution, because he would be too busy spying on everyone else, but he would get bored in the "clean" Big Ten (Twelve). I actually like Jim Leavitt here, as he knows how to build up a program. Until this season he has been the only football coach EVER at South Florida (started program up in the late 90's), and even though they were in the Big East he took that team to two top ten rankings in his time there. He may not take Minnesota to a Rose Bowl but he could get this team out of the basement.
As for the other head coaches on that list, Mark Richt has been on the hot seat for at least 4 seasons now. 2-8 vs Florida is a problem in Athens, and it's been a minute since they Georgia has seen the primary spotlight of the nation. This season he has to beat Auburn in Auburn, and Georgia Tech, in Atlanta, just to finish 6-6. Bowl game not guaranteed. His only hope is to make a bowl game and win it. And I mean that is his ONLY hope. I just don't see the Georgia administration putting up with a 5 win season. I think Richt is out.
Notre Dame's Chip Kelly killed a kid. How can an honest to god, good christian man keep anyone whose reckless decision making ended up costing the life of a 20 year old? If that coach is winning. But Kelly is not. After back to back losses to Navy and Tulsa, and a rough final three games for the Irish, I just don't see how Kelly can possibly keep his job. They are 4-5, and have #8 Utah, Army (in New York), and then end the season at USC. And don't blame the talent. Notre Dame brings in good solid 4-5 star Catholics every season. Anyone watch the Notre Dame's final drive vs. Tulsa this last weekend? If you want an instructional video on how not to coach, that is a good drive to watch. I enjoy watching Notre Dame suck as much as the next guy, but I don't enjoy hearing about the death's of kids, when they should not even be in that situation. Kelly NEEDS to be out.
Rich Rodriguez has other problems at Michigan. Like the NCAA. After his own players called up the NCAA and reported violations, that should tell you where he stands with his own team. With the fans? Tell me if you root for the winning-est team in college football history and then you get to enjoy a 3 and 5 win season, and now you are starting 7 wins in the face, and that is assuming a win over red hot Illinois this weekend. Imagine the pain you would feel if you had to wait for a 7-5 MAC team to get selected for a bowl before you. And if you want to know how the administration feels please just see the above. Losing seasons and constant contact with the NCAA were not on the "to do list" when they hired Rich Rod. My question for Rich Rod is where exactly do you see the defense turning around? Year three and you are still having major issues. The Michigan AD needs to realize that while it's always fun to see Denard Robinson run over everyone, it is not as fun to watch him throw interceptions because the defense gave up more points than Denard could run for. It's still a little shaky for Rich Rod and I think his future rides on how his team finishes the season. 8 wins and I think he stays. 7 wins and a positive review from the NCAA and he stays. 7 wins and trouble with the NCAA and he is out. 6 wins he is out. Lose the final four and go 5-7 again? Good luck finding another job.
Washington State's Paul Wulf is trying to captain a life saver out in a naval warfare. When he got that life saver it was actually a semi nice fishing boat, with some rocket launchers. Since then however Paul Wulf has not just taken a beating, but he has also been carving out the life saver as well. Dumb decisions and poor recruiting are killing the Wulfman like nobodies business. How he has lasted as long as he has only goes to show how little the program cares about football. A program that was ranked in the top ten at the end of the 2002 season. Sad. As far as a replacement, good luck finding someone that wants the job.
The others are sitting on roughly lukewarm seats. The Zooker has Illinois playing competitve football, though he has really just placed a couple of icepacks on his seat. Ralph Friedgen is that High School student that steals lunch money from a some middle schoolers as he has taken Maryland to a 6-2 record (FCS school + 5 teams that have combined for a 13-26 record). That being said he is trying to put out the fire on his seat, though the AD seems to be lighting a match and restarting every so often. You can't force out a coach with a 6-2 record, but Friedgen could still be gone if they lose 3 or more to end the season. Maryland currently has a coach in waiting, and he gets a $1 million bonus if he is not the big cheese by 2012. I have to think that Maryland does not want to pay a coordinator that kind of money so he is just looking for Friedgen to get a little bit too close to the edge before pushing him off the cliff. Butch Davis and Randy Shannon and restored their programs back to the spotlight, for Davis he put his team in the spotlight finally, while Shannon is trying to restore a national name to national power. North Carolina is currently trying to weigh the pro's (winning, bowl games) with the cons (NCAA is starting to build a late summer home in Chapel Hill). It's 50/50 with Davis, but I want to lean to towards letting him stay on a short leash. Shannon is on a different kind of hot seat. Miami is one of the schools where they have a time limit for success. And he is getting awfully close to that clock going off. He has restored Miami back to a solid program but they want more, and the embarrassing loss to Florida St and losing to Virginia have not helped the program at all. I think Shannon is allowed another season before they start looking in another direction. Sherman may also be safe at Texas A&M after making the QB switch from Jerrod Johnson to Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill lead the Aggies to a blowout win over Rival Texas Tech. The fans are getting impatient with Sherman but even with his name in the news as a potential name getting canned I would be surprised.
One name to keep an eye on for ANY head coaching job is Gus Mahlzahn. I don't care what he said about focusing on Auburn right now. Everyone says that. Nick Saban said he wasn't considering Alabama. Tommy Tuberville was only going to leave Ole Miss in a pine box. What they say now does not mean anything until that potential pay check is waived in their face. He is already being mentioned out in Colorado, and I wouldn't be surprised if a certain rival in Georgia doesn't give him a ring if they let go of Richt. Notre Dame is also a potential suitor, though we are still waiting to find out how Christian these Catholics are. It will be interesting to watch this off season play out.
- Conference Changes?
Yup there are more conference changes planning to take place in the near future. The Big East and the WAC are both looking to expand. The Big East, which is now fighting to hold onto it's BCS bid has contacted three schools with offers of joining their conference. One of these is Villanova, who is already a Big East basketball member, and their football team is fresh off an FCS National Championship. The other two schools have football only offers (Big East currently has 16 teams playing in their basketball conference), and they are Central Florida and TCU. Like Louisiana Tech in the WAC, how does TCU make sense geographically? They are in Texas. Raise your hand if you consider Texas an Eastern state? Out side of the geography this would be a huge addition. TCU would immediately make this conference more legitimate and might be able to keep them afloat. I think Patterson likes to hear his own voice talk about being an underdog however so I don't think they will make the leap just yet, not to mention I have to think the Big XII (X) is sweet talking them as well into helping them save their conference from total Texas domination. UCF just feels too much like a backup plan. I feel like Villanova is going to accept, though the offer has been on the table for a good while, but if you had to take TCU or UCF who would you take? Exactly. And Central Florida is a decent program. They have been winning this season with defense, and have some decent QBs. They have the potential to a mid Big East team. Problem is that if all you add is UCF and Villanova, that is not going to be enough to save the Big East. They need Pittsburgh to finish the season on a great run and then win their BCS bowl game. Can you really use Parody? ACC does and that doesn't really work. Plus realy parody belongs to the MAC. Good Luck.
The Western Athletic conference is just trying to save itself right now. Boise St is leaving after this season, while Fresno St and Nevada are leaving after the '11 season. Think about they will currently have left after the '11 season without adding anyone in: Hawaii, San Jose St, New Mexico St, Utah St, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech. Woof. Where's the world beater? It's ok though, because the WAC isn't exactly fighting for any special bowl shot. They are one of those conferences, like the Sun Belt, that is there to help FCS teams make the transition to Big Boy Money football. It likes they are going to add in Texas-San Antonio and Texas State (I mean they have La Tech), and potentially Montana, if Montana has the $$$$ to make it happen. Still not a better conference, but there is potential for Hawaii to grab the national role they had several seasons back, so they are not exactly going to be on their death bed. They may actually be in a better situation than before. Boise St has recently become a national name, yes. But two Texas teams are going to bring more attention to the conference from larger markets, and Montana would end bringing a giant cow pasture and the Dakota markets (stop laughing) with them. Not entirely bad.
- General SEC notes
-- Ole Miss could be without three defensive starters this weekend as LB Jonathan Cornell, S Damien Jackson, and DE Gerald Rivers are all nursing injuries. Well if you are a Rebel fan that couldn't wait to see the new guys on the field I guess this is your game. I expect a lot of freshamn and sophomores to play this weekend. Normally that would be a bad thing, but when it comes to the Rebels' defense this season just how bad could it be?
-- Urban Meyer is now using a no huddle offense, and three different QBs. Brantley as a pocket passer, Burton as the Wild Gator, and Reed as a mobile QB with a decent arm. I would have laughed this off to start the season, but hell it seems to be working. This offense will essentially go through a walkthrough again this weekend when they head to Vanderbilt.
-- Tyler Bray is now the official starting QB for Tennessee. That is a smart decision by Dooley. Let's be honest here Vol fans, Matt Simms was doing nothing for your offense. He was like Ryan Leaf without the talent. He turned the ball over too much, made poor decisions, and just in general is nothing more than an average college football QB. Tyler Bray is eventually going to be the starter, and just from watching him play it is clear that he has the tools to succeed. He can run better than Sims, he has more zip on the ball, and he is more accurate. His biggest problem right now is that he is a true frosh, still trying to catch up to the speed of SEC football, and you have to expect some questionable decisions from him. But if he parlays that talent into an offense that moves the football this weekend against Memphis expect him to be the full time starter throughout November.
-- Florida RB Jeff Demps is still hurting apparently. His foot, which he bothered in the game against South Florida, begins to get sore and by halftime he is all but unplayable. That is tough news for the Gators to hear because Demps was on a fantastic pace to begin the season, knocking in at least one home run carry per game. Most of which would help turn the game around. Since he has been hurt though the Florida offense has been sputtering. They are planning to use the 3 QB system to help take some pressure off of his foot, while keeping him on a bike to help keep him warm during games. He won't be 100% but he should be more effective, which the Gators will need if they plan to keep up this late push to win the East. That's right.
-- General Injury Notes/Updates
- Georgia WR Kris Durham will not play against Idaho St. Durham has a bruised lung, how I am not entirely sure, but they are playing it safe against the Bengals, though he is expected to play a role in their game against Auburn.
- Arkansas WR Greg Childs (Knee) is officially out for the rest of the season, but WR Joe Adams, who missed the Razorbacks destruction of Vanderbilt with an apparent "chin" injury, is back to 100% is expected to be on the field for the Razorback offense when they play at South Carolina this weekend.
- Kentucky RB Derrick Locke is still having problems with his stinger. He has missed the last two games. He tried to carry the ball in some non contact drills this week, but by the end of practice was still having trouble gripping the football. Kentucky's medical staff is still unsure why he has very little strength in his shoulder and arm. That's not promising.
As always guys I love to hear what you think.
I apologize for no predictions this past week, I was at the University of Mississippi finishing up some things so that I can get ready to be back in beautiful Oxford, MS, this coming January.
I am currently trying to update my power rankings, and statistics, and hope to have to my picks up by tomorrow.
BATTEMAN
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