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| Drake Nevis will be looking to take down the Rebels this weekend |
Well last week didn't work out so well for me as I had Florida and Ole Miss each playing a lot better than they did. Congratulations to South Carolina and Auburn for winning their respective divisions. It will be interesting to see how the Gamecocks fair against Troy this weekend, after securing a bid to Atlanta, and with rival Clemson ahead next week they may be looking too far ahead and forget that Troy is actually a decent team (the only team in the Sun Belt with a winning record). The Magnolia Bowl takes place as Ole Miss heads to Baton Rouge, looking to pull a huge upset, Alabama plays former head coach Bill Curry as he brings in Georgia State to Tuscaloosa on Thursday, Tennessee looks to keep their postseason hopes alive as they travel in state to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt, and Florida tries to regroup as they play host to Appalachian State.
Should be fun.
Here are a few quick notes from around the SEC:
- Alabama running back Trent Richardson is still questionable for tonight's game vs. Georgia State. If Alabama is smart they will either play him very sparingly or not play him at all. I would not want to risk a worse injury against a for sure win. Ingram will still take the majority of the snaps, and Eddie Lacy should still see playing time tonight.
- Update on Florida's freshman DT's: Dominique Easley is still in question apparently despite Urban Meyer reaffirming that everything is ok with him. Shariff Floyd however has come out and said that Florida is "where he wants to be." So there is still some hope for the future of the front seven for the Gators.
- While still banged up Georgia QB Aaron Murray is expected to start vs. Georgia Tech next Saturday. If they were to play this weekend, head coach Mark Richt said that Murray would be "doubtful." Bulldogs are lucky to catch a bye week when they did.
- LSU Offensive Guard Will Blackwell is "expected to play" Saturday vs. Ole Miss. He is currently behind T-Bob Hebert on the depth chart, but Les Miles expects Blackwell to regain the starting RG spot before the Bayou Bengals play Arkansas.
- Other offensive line notes for the Bengals, Greg Shaw is expected to start at RT for the injured Alex Hurst, though look for rFr Chris Faulk to receive a majority of the playing time. Shaw was benched in favor of Faulk in the second half vs. Alabama, and for those who remember LSU's offense turned it on in the second half. Just saying.
- Florida OC Steve Addazio is expected to keep his job as Florida offensive coordinator despite the Gators really only having three successful offensive performances this season, vs Kentucky, vs. Georgia, and vs. Vanderbilt.
- Of the draft eligible non-seniors Auburn QB Cam Newton is expected to announce for the NFL Draft, as is Georgia WR A.J. Green, and LSU Patrick Peterson. Ole Miss DT Jerrell Powe, is 50/50 so far on whether to leave early or stay for his senior season. All per ESPN. All have said they will return if the NFL does go through a lockout this next season.
- Arkansas TE D.J. Williams is expected to play this Saturday @ Miss St, after injuring his shoulder this past weekend vs. UTEP.
SEC
Thursday Nov. 18th
(rankings from BCS)
Georgia State @ #11 Alabama
Former Alabama HC Bill Curry leads this rookie program into Tuscaloosa to face a young 9-2...whoops got ahead of myself... 8-2 Tide team that is tuning up for a monstrous showdown in the Iron Bowl. Tide Rolls.
My Pick: Alabama 38 Georgia St 3
Saturday Nov. 20th
Ole Miss @ #5 LSU
Knowing Ole Miss like I do this is going to be one of two things: either an atrocious blowout by the Bengals or a scary close game that the LSU fans will use in their reasons for Miles to be fired.
Ole Miss comes into this game having lost four of their last five games, by an average of 19.8 - 41.0. Rebels QB Jeremiah Masoli has been equally unimpressive during that stretch as he is averaging 176.5 yards/game but completing passes at just a 51.9% clip, averaging 5.6 ypa, throwing 5 touchdowns but 5 interceptions as well. With his recent concussion, poor play vs. Tennessee, and his being a senior it would not surprise me to see the Rebels play sophomore QB Nathan Stanley some vs. LSU to help him get ready for the 2011 season. Whoever plays it is going to be a tough ride for the passing game as the Bayou Bengals have the SEC's best passing defense allowing just 128.3 yards/game (#1 SEC), allowing opponents to complete 58.8% of their passes (#6), at just 5.9 yards/attempt (#1), with a +5 TD/INT ratio (#1). They are going to be a little thin at DB this weekend as they will be two safeties after injuries last week during the Alabama game, but the LSU defensive line, which is averaging 3.2 sacks/game (#2 SEC) in conference play, should get plenty of pressure vs. an inexperienced Rebel front. They may not get the sacks vs. Masoli, because of his mobility, but when Jeremiah is forced to roll out his throws aren't exactly what many define as "accurate." This is a huge advantage for the Bengals. As far as the running game is concerned Masoli does bring something to the table in this department, as teams have to account for his mobility. He has helped the Rebels average 189.7 yards/game in conference play this season (#3 SEC). LSU may have a strong front seven that includes DT Drake Nevis (12.5 TFL, #5 SEC) and LB Kelvin Sheppard (88tkls, #6 SEC) the Bengals haven't been the greatest when it comes to stopping the run, as they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry in SEC play (#7), and 157.3 yards/game (#7) in conference play. All that said I think the consensus for teams recently in stopping the Rebels offensive attack is to load up against the run and make Masoli beat you with his arm. I expect LSU to do the same, and while Ole Miss may find some running room it is going to be tough to really get the offense moving unless Masoli is on top of his game throwing the football.
Offensively for LSU they hit the big time vs. Alabama two weekends ago racking up 433 yards (205 pass/ 228 rush), their second most of the season, but this past weekend they were the complete opposite. Despite scoring 51 points vs ULM, the offense managed just 275 yards, fourth worst of the season, and Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee combined to go 9-22 and just 95 yards. Pitful performance. Really for the Bengals it is all going to depend on which offense shows up. While Stevan Ridley is a very good RB, it is easy to see what defenses are doing to the LSU offense. They are stacking up to shut him down and trying to force the Bengals to win with their QBs. In the last 5 games Ridley is averaging 64.2 yards/game, and just 3.5 yards/carry. Ole Miss rushing defense has been victimized at times this season allowing 7.3 yards/carry to both Arkansas and Auburn (197yds and 343 yards respectively). LSU runs a more conventional style running game, like Alabama whom the Rebels held to just 100 yards rushing on 2.9 yards/carry, though they do mix in the occasional option. I expect the Bengals to have some success rushing the football but it won't be a huge success. In the air it is a complete toss up. The Rebels young secondary solidified their spot at the bottom of the SEC's pass defense in this writer's mind last Saturday, allowing 323 yards and 3 TDs to a freshman QB making his first start. That said, against the weakest opponents LSU's QBs have their worst games. Really this is going to come down to the lesser of two evils. And I really have no idea.
One of the things that still bugs me about the BCS is that a team that does not win their own conference championship game, can still make the National Title Game. And believe it or not LSU still has an outside shot (needs Auburn to lose next two, Boise to lose @ Nevada, and Oregon to lose one). Combine that with the fact that the Tigers have lost two in a row in the Magnolia Bowl (and three in a row to Houston Nutt), and the fact that this is the Bengals Senior night, and I think the Bengals will be playing some good football. Then again it is Les Miles and these Ole Miss players know how to keep it close as the last four meetings the average score is 25 to 25 (last two in Baton Rouge: Ole Miss 25.5 LSU 18.0)
My Pick: LSU 31 Ole Miss 17
Proj Pass: LSU 218.7 yards (7.6 ypa) / Ole Miss 117.6 yards (5.8 ypa)
Proj Rush: LSU 217.5 yards (4.8 ypa) / Ole Miss 128.5 yards (4.0 ypa)
Troy @ #17 South Carolina
The Gamecocks just punched their ticket to their first ever SEC Championship game. Steve Spurrier has finally brought the program to the promised land, and it took just under 20 hours for the Gamecocks to sell out their allotment of SECCG tickets. Funny thing is that they still have to play two more games. And Troy is no slouch. I would call for this game to be very VERY close, but I think the S. Carolina seniors will will the Gamecocks to a decent victory.
My Pick: South Carolina 28 Troy 21
Proj Pass: South Carolina 284.4 yards (8.4 ypa) / Troy 239.6 yards (7.5 ypa)
Proj Rush: South Carolina 208.4 yards (4.6 ypa) / Troy 88.2 yards (3.2 ypa)
Appalachian State @ Florida
App State is no newcomer to upsets. Remember the Armanti Edwards lead attack they laid on Michigan back in '07? Granted the following season LSU curb stomped them in a fashion that reminds me of a recent Ole Miss game, but due to a recent string of good news I'm going to keep myself from reflecting on the negative. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE APP STATE MAKE THIS GAME MISERABLY CLOSE, POSSIBLY EVEN UPSETTING THE GATORS. At the same time I am not crazy, and know that the talent differential is like Baltimore Ravens playing my Grissom High. The Gators are coming off of a very depressing loss to the 'Cocks last weekend that assures that Florida will miss the SEC West title game for the first time in the last three seasons. With ranked rival Florida State on deck it would not surprise me to see the Gators come out playing flat. With a win over a big program already in their record books don't be surprised to see App State play come out very confident and firing on all cylinders. We will see just how much control Urban has over his team this season.
My Pick: Florida 45 App State 17
#13 Arkansas @ #21 Mississippi State
This game provides an interesting match up for these two programs. Arkansas, relying on the arm of Ryan Mallett has proved to be one of the SEC's best offenses this season, with an improved defense. Mississippi State behind the genius of DC Manny Diaz, and an improved (kind of) offense has asserted itself as a team on the rise.
This is going to be a huge test for the Bulldogs' secondary. They were torched by Georgia (58.1% 274 yards -1 TD/INT ratio), Houston (54.2% 346 yards -1 TD/Int Ratio), Kentucky (54.8% 248 yards +1 TD/Int ratio), and Alabama (60.9% 277 yards -1 TD/Int ratio), and this is going to be the best passing attack that they have seen so far this season. Arkansas is the SEC's best passing offense as they are averaging 358.7 yards/game in conference play (#1 SEC), completing 64.3% of their passes (#4), at 9.5 yards/attempt (#2), going +7 in TD/Int ratio (#3). Mississippi St, though not as talented, has played very good defense all season, but with the announcement that TE D.J. Williams, I think this passing offense is going to be too much for the secondary. For all the flack that Bobby Petrino's offense has caught about running the football in his first two seasons with the Pigs, he has done a very good job this season of mixing in the run, with RBs Kniles Davis, Broderick Green, and Ronnie Wingo, Jr. If they effectively move the ball through the air I expect them to be able to move the ball on the ground as well.
MSU's offense has been slightly more improved this season, and they have done their best work controlling the football. They can run the ball at you with a bevy of backs, and FB/QB Chris Relf, and they are averaging 170.5 yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry. Lucky for them they are facing a Pig defense that allows 183.3 yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry. They should be able to find some running room against the Arkansas defense but the question for the Bulldogs is when they are in a passing situation how are they going to get the job done? MSU is in a dogfight with Vandy to finish NOT last in passing this season, averaging just 112.3 yards/game, completing only 48.3% of their passes and are -6 in TD/Int ratio. Arkansas does not have the best passing defense, but they are definitely improved from their abysmal pass defenses of '07 and '08.
I like Arkansas' more balanced offense in this game, and the Razorbacks could be playing for a shot at the Sugar Bowl, so even though this is the Bulldog's Senior Night, I do expect the Razorbacks to come out vitorious.
My Pick: Arkansas 31 Miss St 24
Proj Pass: Arkansas 286.9 yards (8.1 ypa) / Miss St 154.9 yards (6.6 ypa)
Proj Rush: Arkansas 120.2 yards (3.9 ypa) / Miss St 193.8 yards (4.4 ypa)
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
I am not going to write much about the Tennessee v Vandy game because I don't think it warrants much talk. With Tyler Bray leading a revamped UT Offense they are now averaging 475 yards and 51 points over their last two games, their best two game stretch over the last three seasons. Vanderbilt still has a banged up defense, and a banged up backfield, and their QB situation may be even "iffy"er than the current LSU QB situation. With the Vols eyeing bowl eligibility I expect them to come out and have another solid game, and the crowd should be majority Orange in this "rivalry" game.
My Pick: Tennessee 35 Vanderbilt 17
Proj Pass: Tennessee 280.3 yards (8.1 ypa) / Vanderbilt 176.5 yards (6.8 ypa)
Proj Rush: Tennessee 154.8 yards (4.1 ypa) / Vanderbilt 137.4 yards (4.1 ypa)
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Alright guys, I had planned to put up some National Offensive/Defensive Power Ranking pages up but I am going to postpone that until the end of the season. I may put up some SEC Offensive and Defensive Power Rating pages up tomorrow, depending on how quickly I get done with the rest of my picks.
If you have any questions, or any other games you would like for me to go over, just comment here, on the Facebook Fan Page, send me a tweet @WTLandSharksAre, or email me at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com
As always guys thanks for reading.
BATTEMAN
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