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| Florida QB Trey Burton |
I apologize for posting this a day late but I had some problems with my internet last night.
Instead I am posting this from work (shhhh)
There are a lot of interesting games this week including, the SEC East Championship game pitting South Carolina at Florida; a battle of ranked opponents in the SEC West as a rising Mississippi State team takes on an Alabama squad in a down year (I would love to have a down year with 2 losses); Auburn hosts Georgia in the oldest rivalry in the south, as Auburn tries to shake off the distractions surrounding Cam Newton and clinch their first SEC West since 2004; Kentucky looks to get bowl eligible as they play host to Vanderbilt; and Ole Miss and Tennessee square off in Knoxville as each team tries to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Some quick notes around the SEC before I get to the picks:
- Alabama RB Trent Richardson has officially been listed as doubtful this weekend. Nick Saban has said that Richardson will be a game-time decision, and that even if he decides to play Trent that Heisman winner Mark Ingram will be getting the bulk of the carries Saturday. Eddie Lacy is expected to spell Ingram if Richardson cannot go.
- As of the time of this writing QB Cam Newton will play for Auburn this weekend. There has been word that the NCAA will ask Newton to sit out until they finish their investigation, but they have not made any request as of yet.
- Ole Miss QB Jeremiah Masoli is still questionable after sustaining a concussion this past weekend on a rushing TD against Louisiana. The decision Masoli will be made sometime later this afternoon. Masoli's backup, Sophomore Nathan Stanley, will start if Masoli is unable to go Saturday.
- Despite rumblings of a potential transfer, Florida Gator freshman DT Dominique Easley is still with the team and is expected to at least finish the season a Gator.
Anyway guys here are my picks, as always you know I love to hear what you think
SEC
Ole Miss @ Tennessee
This is a game that means a lot to both teams as 3-6 Tennessee and 4-5 Ole Miss are both still fighting for a post season birth. Tennessee started true frosh Tyler Bray this past weekend @ Memphis and he had a very good game completing 19 of 33 passes (57.6%) for 325yds (9.8 ypa) and threw for 5 TDs with 0 interceptions. While not the most mobile of QBs he has shown that he can move around in the pocket if necessary. The big question in this game for Tennessee is their offensive line, which will be starting it's 6th different lineup this Saturday against the Rebels, which bosts one of the SEC's best interior D-Lines including starting DT Jerrell Powe (6.5tfl). The Rebels are also tied for 2nd in the SEC in Sacks/game with just under three (2.78 to be exact) while Tennessee's O-Line is dead last in the SEC in Sacks Allowed/game with just over three (3.44 to be exact). Tennessee has done a decent job of running the football this season including rushing for 332 yards in the opener against UT-Martin, rushing for 182 vs Oregon and 159 vs. Alabama, where Tauren Poole broke Alabama's streak of consecutive games of not allowing a rusher of over 100 yds as he rushed for 117yds on 14 carries (8.4 ypa) and a touchdown. Yet despite those decent games this Tennessee rushing offense has also had some very poor showings as well including 29 yards (1.3 ypa) vs. Florida, 42 yards (1.6 ypa) vs. UAB, 96 yaresd (2.6 ypa) vs. LSU, 9 yards (0.4 ypa) vs. Georgia and 92 yards (2.5 ypa) vs. South Carolina. Along with Powe the Rebels also have MLB Jonathan Cornell, who is 6th in the SEC with 11.0tfl this season. The running game will be very important to the outcome of this game, but where Tennessee can win this game is in the air, where the Rebels secondary has struggled all season, allowing 60.7%, 7.5 ypa, -6 TD/INT ratio, 139.17 QB Rating, and 217.6 yards per game (all numbers in conference play). What those numbers boil down to is that the young secondary has not done well. Their four interceptions this season are good enough for dead last in the conference. The reason why the running game is important is that it would help take a lot of pressure off true frosh Bray and open up even more holes in the Rebels secondary.
Offensively it appears that the Rebels may be without QB Jeremiah Masoli this Saturday which will hurt the offense a slight bit. Backup Nathan Stanely has not done a terrible job this season completing 53.8% of his passes for 9.3 ypa and 3 touchdowns (0 int). The Rebels are most effective on the ground this season, averaging 188.4 yards per game in conference play (3rd in the SEC). Tennessee's defense has struggled so far this season in conference play, allowing 185.4 yards per game (9th SEC) and 15 touchdowns (10th SEC). But run defense is not the only part of the defense that UT has struggled in this season, as they are allowing conference opponents to complete 63% of their passes, for 8.7 ypa, a QB rating of 142.06 and 239.4 yards per game. All of which rank 9th or lower in the SEC. The front seven are in the same boat as well as they are only averaging 6.1tfl per game (9th SEC), 1.7 sacks/game (10th SEC), and are allowing 4.7 yards per carry (10th SEC). The Rebels when run at you from all angles, using reverses, misdirecetion, up the middle, wildcat, etc. usually using play action to take advantage of teams creeping up to stop the run.
The biggest problem for UT this season has been depth, and while I'm sure they will be giving it their all they are usually out of gas in the second half. I expect for the Rebels to control the clock by running the ball on almost every down in the first half, wearing out the Vol defense, and then exploding in the 2nd half. It wouldn't surprise me to see UT grab an early lead behind the crowd, but I do expect for the Vols to struggle on the ground against a tough Ole Miss D-Line and with all of the pressure on Bray I expect him to make a few mistakes. UT runs out to an early lead but loses it in the 2nd half.
My Pick: Ole Miss 31 Tennessee 28
Proj Pass: Ole Miss 193.9 yards (7.2 ypa) / Tennessee 244.8 yards (7.5 ypa)
Proj Rush: Ole Miss 175.8 yards (4.3 ypa) / Tennessee 156.0 yards (4.5 ypa)
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
This is huge game for the Wildcats as they are looking to clinch bowl eligibilty for the fifth consecutive season, and the first bowl game for new Head Coach Joker Philips. Kentucky does get back the help of RB Derrick Locke this weekend, which will be a big boost to the 'Cats offense, and more bad news for the fast falling Commodores. Nothing is going right for 'Dores as they are going to be limited in the running game with both Zac Stacy and Warren Norman, really their only two offensive weapons this season, limited due to injuries. Vanderbilt has been destroyed in three of their last four outings (0-43 @ UGA, 14-49 @ Ark, 14-55 vs. Flo) with their only close game being home against South Carolina, where they would lose 7-21. I don't expect anything different this weekend as Kentucky should move to 6-5.
My Pick: Kentucky 38 Vanderbilt 13
Proj Pass: Kentucky 312.5 yards (8.0 ypa) / Vanderbilt 144.7 yards (6.8 ypa)
Proj Rush: Kentucky 170.2 yards (4.1 ypa) / Vanderbilt 124.8 yards (4.1 ypa)
Georgia @ #2 Auburn
This is also a very intriguing game as Auburn needs just one win to clinch the SEC West, and I'm sure that everyone has heard about what has been going on with Cam Newton recently.
As of right now Cam Newton will play for Auburn. So that is how I am approaching it.
If that is the case than Georgia's defense, which is not bad (#8 overall in my Defensive Power Ranking), has not faced a QB like Cam all season. Newton is far and away the best player in college football this season as he seems to have combined the size of former Arkansas QB Matt Jones, with the passing ability of Jason Campbell (Sr Season), and the running ability of Bo Jackson. No bueno for opposing defenses. To go along with Newton the Auburn offense has one of the best offensive line's in the country, plenty of capable running backs in Mario Fanin, Ontario McCalebb, and Michael Dyer, as well as solid WRs, like Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. But that does not mean that this offense cannot be stopped. Example you ask? How about Mississippi St. Cam was held to 136 yards passing (many of which came on well timed screens) and 70 yards rushing. Or Clemson when he was held to 206 yards passing (Most of which came in the 2nd half while trying to comeback) and 68 yards rushing. In those games Auburn was held to 17 points and 27 points (3 came in OT) respectively. That said I want to make that those who think I am "hating" hear (read) me say that Auburn, with Cam Newton, is the best offense in the country. Offensive Coordinator Gus Mahlzahn effectively uses all of his weapons, and if you devote even the slightest bit of attention away from Newton than he will bust you with his prized QB. Simply put this is going to be Georgia's toughest test of the season.
For the Auburn defense they are also in trouble. Their troubles name is A.J. Green. This Auburn secondary has struggled for most of the season, allowing conference oponents to complete 63.4% of their passes (11th SEC) for 234.2 yards/game (9th SEC). They ahve allowed 12 TD passes as well (tied for last SEC). Their one saving grace has been that while they have allowed big plays in the secondary, they have allowed more passing plays of 10 yards or more than anyone else in the SEC this season with 92, they usually keep the big plays from being HUGE plays, as that number drops to 27 (6th SEC) when you extend it to passing plays of 20 yards or more. Georgia has a young gun in frosh QB Aaron Murray (230.7yds/game 61.5 % 9.0ypa +12 TD/INT ratio 155.22 QB rating) and the best WR in the country in Green. UGA does have some decent backs in Caleb King and Washaun Ealey, but Auburn has one of the best front sevens in all of football lead by DT Nick Fairley (18.0 TFL #3 Nation). I expect for Georgia to only use the running game occasionally but stick to the air where I think they have the upper hand with WR's Green, Tavares King, and Kris Durham and TE Orson Charles.
One of the big keys of this game is going to be how well that Auburn, Newton in particular, handle the distractions heading into this game. I do expect them to play a major part in this game, as the focus around the nation has turned from Auburn trying to clinch the West to Newton's recruitment. If there is anything that Mark Richt has done in his time at UGA it is beat Auburn, and he has done so for the past four seasons. I almost called for the upset, but I know that Auburn would much rather win the West Saturday than try again next in Tuscaloosa a couple of weekends from now.
Oh by the way, if Newton sits, than Georgia wins.
My Pick: Auburn 31 Georgia 27
Proj Pass: Auburn 220.2 yards (9.1 ypa) / Georgia 227.7 yards (7.5 ypa)
Proj Rush: Auburn 229.1 yards (4.6 ypa) / Georgia 138.0 yards (3.7 ypa)
UTEP @ #14 Arkansas
This is a gimme game for Arkansas as they prepare to go to Starkville next weekend. UTEP may have a winning record, but they are picking on the handicapped autistic kids of the Conference USA. They are not as good as their record, though they do have a decent coach in Mike Price. Arkansas is coming off a big win at South Carolina this past weekend, and with a meeting with the ranked Bulldogs scheduled for next weekend they may have a bit of a letdown but not that big. Arkansas did struggle against UL-Monroe, only scoring seven points in the first half, but I don't think they will have that much trouble this weekend.
My Pick: Arkansas 38 UTEP 17
Proj Pass: Arkansas 337.7 yards (7.6 ypa) / UTEP 178.1 yards (6.3 ypa)
Proj Rush: Arkansas 178.4 yards (4.9 ypa) / UTEP 121.3 yards (4.3 ypa)
UL-Monroe @ #5 LSU
If there was any team that LSU would want to face coming off of an emotional win in the Saban bowl than this would be it. ULM is a bottom feeder from the Sun Belt, and all of their weaknesses are LSU's strengths. Only one of my 7 calculations calls for them to score more than 10 points (16). I'll give them a little credit and say they actually get a TD.
My Pick: LSU 38 ULM 7
Proj Pass: LSU 251.3 yards (7.7 ypa) / ULM 82.8 yards (5.6 ypa)
Proj Rush: LSU 256.0 yards (4.7 ypa) / ULM 60.4 yards (3.2 ypa)
#23 South Carolina @ #22 Florida
This is essentially the SEC East Championship Game, as the winner of this game will, well.. win the East. And I fully believe that is the main reason why South Carolina got destroyed by Arkansas in Columbia this past weekend, because they were looking ahead to this game, and not paying attention to the ranked Razorbacks.
South Carolina has many options offensively but their offense does the most damage when RB Marcus Lattimore gets going. It is no coincidence that in all three of their losses they have rushed for less than 125 yards (79 @ Aub, 90 @ Kent, 105 vs Ark). They average more than a full touchdown per game (8.3 tbe) when they have rushed for 150 yards or more. Lattimore is going to be challenged this Saturday as the Gator run defense, which is third in the SEC in both yards per game (120.4) and yards per carry allowed (3.3), will be stacking up to stop him. It is because of the emergence of Lattimore that QB Stephen Garcia is having his best season as a Gamecock thus far into his career, and his 67.7 completion % is 2nd in the SEC, but he does lead the SEC in interceptions, with nine. Something he is going to want to avoid this weekend if the Gamecocks want to pull off the upset, as Florida leads the SEC in interceptions with 17. This is going to be the toughest challenge that the Gamecocks have faced so far into the season because they have the ability to shut down the run, and an opportunistic secondary that makes your passing game play to perfection. That said the Gators secondary has not faced a WR group like the Gamecocks, whose top three receivers are all 6'4 or taller, including the SEC's leading receiver Alshon Jeffrey (114.9yds/game 7td). I expect this to be a key match up all night long as the Florida secondary doesn't have a major player over 6'1. If Lattimore can get going however, than this could be a long night for the Gators.
Offensively the Gators have found a spark in a no huddle, three headed monster kind of way. TE Jordan Reed, who is also the third string QB, is now getting playing time at QB, and he resembles a mix of Tim Tebow and Cam Newton as a runner. Not as fast as Newton, not as tough as Tebow, but a rough combination. As a passer he more closely resembles Chris Leak, though a little bit less accurate. Adding him with Trey Burton and John Brantley and the Gators have gone from averaging 329.7 yards/game and 32.2 points/game over the first six to averaging 465.0 yds/game and 44.5 pts/game over the last two. Jeffrey Demps still hasn't been himself though the Gators have found a more effective way to use him, by splitting up the carries more, and allowing his foot to rest and not flame up before the end of the game. The addition of Reed and Burton to the QB mix has also allowed OC Steve Addazio to open up the playbook more. He can now run a Gus Mahlzahn-esque type of offense, with a lot of misdirection, and outside runs. South Carolina's run defense has been solid all season as they are second in the SEC in rushing yards allowed (117.6) and yards per carry allowed (3.2). But this rushing offense is a whole different monster as they will attack on you on the edges and the corners, and then when you least expect it, hit you right up the middle. I look for the Gators to be able to move the ball in this game.
As much as part of me wants to root for South Carolina to win this game and win the East (What can I say I like the ole ball coach), I have to go with Florida. They have found their confidence on offense again and that has allowed this team to play a brand of football that many of us have associated with the Florida Gators all of our lives (excluding the Ron Zook years).
My Pick: Florida 28 South Carolina 17
Proj Pass: Florida 263.5 yards (7.6 ypa) / South Carolina 166.5 yards (7.4)
Proj Rush: Florida 152.8 yards (3.6 ypa) / South Carolina 107.1 yards (3.6)
#19 Mississippi St @ #12 Alabama
Sorry if it takes me a second to get talking about this game buy my eyes are still adjusting to seeing a number next to MSU's name.
All jokes aside may be the most underrated team in the country. How many other ranked teams do you not hear about on ESPN? Central Florida? And I hear their name all the time on Tuesday and Wednesday night football. But I never hear about Miss State. And I think that is going to play to their advantage a bit.
MSU's offense has not been what many of us would call "productive". In conference play they only average 15.8 points/game (11th SEC), 104.8 passing yards/game (11th SEC), but they do average 174.8 rushing yards/game (4th SEC); 279.6 total yards/game (11th SEC). But they are effective enough. They get the job done in a way that numbers can't describe. They control the ball enough to be effective in the field position battle, and nobody holds onto a lead quite like MSU. Without the lead they lose TOP, but with the lead they win TOP almost 2 to 1. That will be the key for the Bulldogs. I can tell you how great the Bama defense is all night long, and they are probably going to look like a great defense for the majority of the night, but if the score is close late in the game, and the Bulldogs take the lead, watch them drain the clock like nobodies business.
Offensively for Alabama I am still wondering why Greg McElroy passes as much as he does. He is not going to win you games with his arm, and he has proven that time and time again. He is a game manager, who happens to have one of the game's best WRs in Julio Jones (who is absolutely on fire recently averaging 11 rec/game, 155 yds/game over last 2 games) and a solid set of WRs including Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks. But it is the small things for McElroy, like taking sacks when he is outside of the pocket, or eyeballing his targets all the way down the field. His ineffectiveness on third and long, where Alabama is converting just 29%. The run game has been the strength this season though it did take a hit when Trent Richardson was announced as doubtful for this weekend. Mark Ingram did win the Heisman last season so I am not expecting this to be too much of a problem. This may be a battle of the two best defensive minds in the conference with Nick Saban of Alabama and Manny Diaz of Mississippi St. MSU has talent on defense but compared to other top defenses they are nowhere near as talented, yet they still play great defense, in conference play they are allowing just 4.9 yards per play!
This is going to be a great game, and while Bama is the better team, this game is going to be a lot closer than they like after a tough loss in Baton Rouge. I do expect for the Tide to pull it out in the end though.
My Pick: Alabama 23 Miss St 14
Proj Pass: Alabama 225.1 yards (6.9 ypa) / Miss St 138.9 yards (6.3 ypa)
Proj Rush: Alabama 148.9 yards (3.9 ypa) / Miss St 163.7 yards (4.2 ypa)
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Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think.
You can comment below, or if you have any other questions you can email me at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com
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Thanks for reading
BATTEMAN
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