Hey there guys,
While I love all sports, springtime brings out one of the best atmospheres of them all. College Baseball. Well maybe if you're an Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina, Florida or Arkansas student, where going to baseball games is actually acceptable.
I don't know how up to date I'm going to keep this, but I'm going to follow along with SEC baseball. Making some predictions here and there, throwing in some power rankings. The usual stuff.
This weekend is the first step in finding out which teams are for real. We (think we) know that Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas are legit. What about Kentucky (weak schedule), Ole Miss (inexperienced weekend staff), Georgia (swept by UCLA), Miss State (L 3 of last 4) and LSU (worst SOS in conference)? It's also time for teams like Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt to step up.
The games aren't too exciting to non-followers eyes. Kentucky will get their first test with #3 South Carolina and the conference's lone Top 25 match-up features State and LSU.
So grab a Budweiser, grill yourself a hot dog and prepare to enjoy the nation's past time: drinking, being lazy and over-analyzing a sport with more numbers than a binary code.
First Weekend Games
#3 South Carolina (15-1; 0-0) @ Kentucky (18-0; 0-0)
Friday: Michael Roth (2-0, 0.93 ERA) vs. Taylor Rogers (4-0, 4.24 ERA)
Saturday: Matt Price (2-0, 3.10 ERA) vs. Jerad Grundy (3-0, 2.25 ERA)
Sunday: Colby Holmes (3-0, 0.93 ERA) vs. Corey Littrell (2-0, 1.88 ERA)
Preview: We're going to find out really quickly whether or not Kentucky is legit. They've gone through a pretty powder-puff schedule so far so it's really hard to take them seriously at this point. We are going to find out just how good their bats are, as they lead the league in batting average, doubles and on-base-percentage, but are facing the best, and deepest pitching staff in the conference. The 'Cocks have an incredible 1.73 team ERA, led by starters Roth and Holmes. This looks like a sweep to me, however if UK is going to win it's going to be Saturday. Grundy has had a great start to the season with three wins in four starts and SC employs the 1-3-2 weekend rotation. If UK can get a win this weekend, I'll begin to take them seriously. Until then, they are overrated.
Completely wrong game by game predictions: Fri: SC 5-3, Sat: UK 5-4, Sun: SC 4-3
Tennessee (10-6; 0-0) @ #18 Georgia (13-5; 0-0)
Friday: Nick Blount (2-1, 5.56 ERA) vs. Alex Wood (3-1, 2.36 ERA)
Saturday: Zach Godley (3-0, 4.44 ERA) vs. Pete Nagel (0-0, 1.56 ERA)
Sunday: TBA vs. Michael Palazzone (0-1, 3.71 ERA)
Preview: I don't think Georgia could have had a worse weekend, getting swept by UCLA last weekend. Georgia, then #9, struggled from the plate and on the mound, allowing 16 runs, while only scoring 9. They responded by dropping 31 runs on Kennesaw state in the midweek. Tennessee comes into this series on a 3-game losing streak, dropping the back end to UL-Monroe, then losing a bad one to Tennessee Tech, 1-5. Tennessee is just not good. There's really no way to dance around that. They rank 11th in the SEC in batting average (.271), 11th in slugging percentage (.373) and are tied for 7th in on-base percentage (.388). On top of that they are 10th in ERA (3.81) and 9th in opponents batting average (.246). At least Georgia can pitch. Georgia Sweeps.
Completely wrong game by game predictions: Fri: UGA 5-2, Sat: UGA 4-1, Sun: 5-2
Vanderbilt (7-10; 0-0) @ #1 Florida (16-1; 0-0)
Friday: Kevin Ziomek (2-1, 3.09 ERA) vs. Hudson Randall (2-0, 3.65 ERA)
Saturday: Drew VerHagen (2-1, 3.93 ERA) vs. Brian Johnson (2-0, 4.12 ERA)
Sunday: Tyler Beede (0.2, 7.24 ERA) vs. Jonathan Crawford (1-1, 5.71 ERA)
Preview: Four teams were considered the front runners for the SEC championship heading into the season: Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Three of the four have lived up to the hype so far. Vandy is not one of them. They're in the bottom quarter of every major hitting statistic, have the conference's worst team ERA (4.93) and to top it off they have the worst fielding percentage (.953) as well. These are not things you want to be dealing with as you face the No. 1 team in the country. Florida is not going to overwhelm you with solid pitching, and they're not going to drop double-digit runs on you every game either. However, they are the most well-rounded team in the conference. With as rough as Vandy's pitching has been this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see them get rocked. I'm taking Florida with a sweep.
Completely wrong game by game predictions: Fri: Florida 10-2, Sat: Florida 10-2, Sun: Florida 12-3
Alabama (8-9; 0-0) @ #4 Arkansas (16-2; 0-0)
Friday: Charlie Sullivan (2-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. D.J. Baxendale (5-0, 2.45 ERA)
Saturday: Taylor Guilbeau (1-1, 3.98 ERA) vs. Ryne Stanek (4-0, 1.12 ERA)
Sunday: Trey Pilkington (0-1, 5.91 ERA) vs. Randall Fant (1-1, 4.40 ERA)
Preview: I have to say I'm really surprised by the Tide's performance so far this season. I wasn't expecting them to compete for an SEC west title, but with sluggers like Taylor Dugas and Ben Moore, I was thinking they would at least enter conference play above .500. Instead, they are struggling mightily at the plate as a team, hitting an SEC low .250 for the season. They are the proud owners of the worst walk-to-strikeout ratio (1.92), and their on-base percentage is actually lower than Kentucky's batting average (.342 - .343). Arkansas on the other hand has played extremely well to start the season with wins over Texas Tech, Texas and a solid mid-week sweep of Gonzaga. Week in and week out I debate whether or not Arkansas isn't the best team in the SEC. They are rocking the SEC's second best team ERA (2.18) and average seven runs per game. Bama's bats have been cold recently, which isn't good considering the Razorbacks have a 1.50 ERA over the last 10 games. Maybe I'm in love with the brooms this weekend, but I don't see the Tide taking one.
Completely wrong game-by-game predictions: Fri: Ark 8-0 Sat: Ark 8-0 Sun: Ark 10-1
Auburn (10-7; 0-0) @ #12 Ole Miss (14-3; 0-0)
Friday: Derek Varnadore (1-1, 5.55 ERA) vs. Bobby Wahl (3-0, 1.96 ERA)
Saturday: Will Kendall (2-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. R.J. Hively (3-0, 2.08 ERA)
Sunday: Daniel Kroger (1-1, 1.82 ERA) vs. Mike Mayers (2-1, 3.43 ERA)
Preview: Maybe it's the Ole Miss fan inside me, but this is a series the Rebels could lose. Their weekend starters, who have performed at a high level this season, have yet to start a conference game in their careers. Not saying that Auburn is suddenly going to provide a much superior test, but the Tigers are always a solid hitting team as evidenced this year by their team .319 batting average which is good enough for third best in the conference. Also, Auburn's pitchers are young, but solid. Kendall (Soph.) and Kroger (Fr.) have been pitching very well, allowing a combined 4 earned runs between the two. This is a series that the Rebels of the past two seasons would come in favored, and leave with their tails tucked between their legs. That said this year's version is much better than both of those teams.
Completely wrong game-by-game predictions: Fri: Miss 9-2 Sat: Miss 6-2 Sun: Miss 7-3
#21 Mississippi State (14-5; 0-0) @ #13 LSU (14-3; 0-0)
Friday: Chris Stratton (4-0., 2.57 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (4-0, 1.32 ERA)
Saturday: Nick Routt (1-1, 3.31 ERA) vs. Ryan Eades (3-1, 2.13 ERA)
Sunday: Kendall Graveman (1-0, 2.82 ERA) vs. Austin Nola (3-0, 1.80 ERA)
Preview: This is the series of the weekend. They're both top 25 teams and are each playing pretty good ball heading in to the weekend. It seems for the first time since I have been following college baseball LSU isn't being considered as a legitimate candidate to win the conference, with everyone's eyes on SC, Florida and Arkansas. And I agree with the idea, mainly because of the Bayou Bengals struggles on the mound. They come into this weekend with a 3.18 ERA, but allow opposing hitters to hit for .240 off of them. This is really concerning considering that LSU has played the weakest schedule of any team in the conference (SOS 220). LSU does have a solid set of bats, but they will be facing the third best ERA in the conference with State (2.60). I'm going to take LSU to win this series, but only because State enters the game having lost three of their last four.
Completely wrong game-by-game predictions: Fri: LSU 4-3 Sat: LSU 5-4 Sun: MSU 4-3
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