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| Could this be A.J. Green's (8) last game with the Bulldogs? |
What a day of bowl games yesterday huh?
SMU outgains Army by nearly 200 yards, and still loses 16-14, Syracuse gets the help of a "unsportsmanlike conduct" call to make K State have to attempt a 2-pt conversion from 18 yards away instead of 3 as the Orange hold on to win 36-34, North Carolina and Tennessee played a wild one that went to two overtimes before the Heels finally won 30-27, and Washington upset Nebraska 19-7.
Crazy.
Well today is going to be like yesterday where I am going to be racing to get everything done, because it just so happens that I am at work. The only one at the Huntsville Times that is at work today. Fan-freakin-tastic.
Anyway, I'll post the writeups first then my projections as I finish them.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
South Florida vs. Clemson
I'm going to be completely honest. I don't know that South Florida can score in this game. B.J. Daniels is probable for this game, but with a leg injury that is not 100% the duel threat QB loses some of his play-making ability. He has been solid with the option read all season long, but the front seven of Clemson has played outstanding all season long, lead by DT Jarvis Jenkins, DE De'Quan Bowers, and DE Andre Branch. LB Corico Hawkins leads a solid LB corps that has also stepped up to shut down the run this season. Moises Plancer and Demetrius Murray have been decent options out of the backfield this season, but Daniels is the show. I really don't see USF being able to run the football today, Clemson has every advantage up front, and when you have the added help of the LB's I think USF is going to have to win this game through the air. Which is also a problem for the Bulls. Daniels is not a very good passer. He has a cannon for an arm, but his accuracy is very questionable, and he often rolls out to run, not pass. WR Dontavia Bogan is a decent WR, but he drops waaay too many passes. Clemson should not have to blitz too much, as Bowers, Jenkins, and Branch have large advantages over the guys they will be matched up against and should be able to get pressure on their own, leaving an extra LB to spy Daniels and keep him from burning the Tigers on the ground. I just believe it is going to be a long day for the Bulls' offense.
On the flip side, Clemson QB Kyle Parker is a pretty good QB when he doesn't have his head up hiss ass. Parker is highly touted baseball prospect and he often plays as if he doesn't care, making poor decisions, and shrugging off every mistake as if it doesn't matter. Don't be surprised if highly touted sophomore Tahj Boyd gets a good amount of playing time today. No matter who is under center for the Tigers they will have a bit of a challenge as USF has a solid secondary, and a very good pass defense in general (pass rush, LB's on underneath routes). That said USF has not seen the kind of size and athleticism that Clemson will bring from the receivers in today's game. Jaron Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are both 6'2 and are both playmakers that really emerged down the stretch, and TE Dwayne Allen (6'4 255) has NFL type athleticism and can really make the LB's for the Bulls work to keep up with him. While I like Clemson's run game the Tigers offensive line needs to be ready to deal with an underrated rush defense of the Bulls, led by DT Terrell McClain. Tiger RB Jamie Harper is a load (235) but often plays way too high, and tries to dance and dodge tackles instead of running through defenders so it will be interesting to see if Clemson can get anything going on the ground today.
I think USF will play hard as the underdogs, but a 6-6 Clemson team is going to be ready to end the season on a good note, and they have the advantage in just about every facet of the game today.
My Pick: Clemson 21 South Florida 10
Proj Pass: Clemson 190.0 yards (6.0 ypa) / South Florida 151.0 yards (6.4 ypa)
Proj Rush: Clemson 139.2 yards (3.7 ypa) / South Florida 121.7 yards (3.5 ypa)
Fans Pick: Clemson 87%
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL)
Catholics vs. Convicts. Notre Dame vs. Miami. This was a HUGE rivalyr back in the late 80's and early 90's. Both schools just signed off to pick the rivalry up in the future, and they get to start it all off today around lunch. Notre Dame has had to deal with more than their share of injuries on offense this season, but most will be back and ready for the bowl game. Unfortunately their QB is not one of them and Tommy Ree's will get the start today. How the true freshman plays today will determine whether or not the Irish are actually in the game. The "U"'s defense has all kinds of NFL talent on it and it all starts up front with monster DE Allen Bailey and DT Marcus Forston. Both of these guys are relentless pass rushers and have dominated those in front of them on passing downs. The secondary is led by CB Brandon Harris, another NFL Talent, who has the speed, quickness, and reaction to stick with any slot receiver in the country. Everyone knows that Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is a pass happy guy, but for that to work WR Malcolm Floyd is going to have to win every jump ball against the talented Hurricane secondary, and the Irish O-Line is going to have play their best game of the season and give Rees an extra second to make a decision. OR Kelly could just run the football. Notre Dame has been fairly successful on the ground this season, and despite all of their talent, Miami has been pretty awful at times at stopping the run. They are often caught out of position/chargin upfield/taking poor angles. Randy Shannon may have been cleaning up the program but his defense was not very well coached. Cierre Wood and Robert Hughes should have decent games as long as Notre Dame does not abandon the pass too early, especially because of their contrast. Wood is a speedy back that loves to get to the outside and can break big plays, while the 245lb Hughes can play the part of wrecking ball into the middle of Miami's defense. If they are successful on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rees and that Irish Air Attack pick up and make some big plays.
The big knock on the Notre Defense's for the past, oh I dunno, six years or so, has been that while they are highly touted and strong, they are often not fast enough to keep up with their opponent. That will be interesting to see how that plays out today. Miami uses a runningback-by-committee approach and we'll probably see at least three different runningbacks get five plus touches today. While Notre Dame has been just "average" against the run this season in their new 3-4 scheme, they get back NG Ian Williams who is a space eater at 300+ lbs. If he can demand double teams and eat up space in the middle that should allow Notre Dame's talented LB corps to make plays and shut down the "U" rushing attack. I expect two Miami QB's to play today, Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris. Harris has all the talent in the world, with a strong arm and the athletic ability to extend plays, but he can make some awful decisions and often just throws balls up for grabs. Morris is not as talented and does not have anywhere near the arm strength but his decision making during the play was much better than Harris's so at times the offense was actually better off with him in the game. The problem with Morris is that he very inexperienced and often struggled making his pre-snap reads, and forced balls into coverage. Miami WR's Leonard Hankerson and Laron Byrd are very good and both have the potential to make plays on Sunday. What Notre Dame's defensive backs lack in athleticism they make up for with good ball skills, and will often jump routes and make good plays. If Harris and Morris pick this up they can burn them early in the game and force them to sit back, which is not good for Notre Dame. The problem is that I don't know that Harris and Morris are smart enough to realize this.
While athleticism says that Miami should roll in this game, they are going to be without a coach and they come into this game having lost their last two, including a home loss to South Florida, while Notre Dame has won three in a row, one over ranked Utah, and another over USC in Los Angeles. I think the Catholics will be very confident and ready to play in this game while the Convicts are going to come out a little flat.
My Pick: Notre Dame 24 Miami 23 (<-- UPSET)
Proj Pass: Notre Dame 221.6 yards (6.2 ypa) / Miami 213.2 yards (6.3 ypa)
Proj Rush: Notre Dame 140.8 yards (4.2 ypa) / Miami 165.2 yards (4.3 ypa)
Fans Pick: Notre Dame 51%
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia vs. #25 Central Florida
I was actually pretty amazed that no one gave the 10-3 Golden Knights a chance in this game. I thought at least one person would look at the records and say hmm.. I think I'll go with 10 wins over 6. Oh well. Georgia comes into this game with a huge offensive TALENT advantage of Central Florida. UCF is very well coached however so we'll see how that works out. UGA has a much bigger offensive line than what the Golden Knights will produce, and even though Caleb King is going to miss this afternoon's game because of suspension I still look for Washun Ealey to be able to run the ball effectively today. Though UCF DE Bruce Miller is a relentless pass rusher and has unbelievable awareness when rushing the QB, Bulldog tackles Trinton Sturdivant and Josh Davis are so much bigger and stronger than Miller, who has been bullied in the run game at times this season. If the Dogs want to put him in their rearview mirror I believe they need to run right at Miller on almost every play, and wear him out so he is not effective in the second half. In the passing game UGA QB Aaron Murray has unbelievable poise and awareness for a freshman, makes great pre-snap reads and delivers the ball with solid accuracy. He is going to be good. Then again it helps to have WRs like Kris Durham, Tavares King, and AJ GREEN. Oh and TE's Orson Charles and Aron White are pretty good as well. I have a hard time seeing the UCF secondary being able to stop this offense. They are well coached but if UGA comes ready to play they should be able to have their way in today's game.
Central Florida runs a read option with playmaker QB Jeff Godfrey and RBs Latavius Murry and Ronnie Weaver. All three can burn you. Georgia is in the first year of DC Todd Grantham's 3-4 defense, but has played fairly well down the stretch (excluding that game vs. Auburn, but who can blame them). One thing that Georgia really needs to do well today is tackle, they have stuggled in that area all season long, and Weaver and Murray are really good at taking advantage of that. The Golden Knights do have some pretty solid talent at WR in Kamar Aiken and Jamar Newsome, and a speedy slot receiver in Quincy McDuffie. Georgia has two very talented CBs in Sanders Commings and Brandon Boykin, but the real question is going to be who covers the third guy? I'm not entirely sure that will matter as Godfrey is not going to beat anyone with his arm. He makes very questionable decisions, and has poor accuracy. If he can get out of the pocket he can make plays downfield and beat you with his legs. I look for Georgia to line up 8-9 in the box, and force Godfrey to win the game with his arm.
While I'm sure that UCF is going to be ready and raring to play for this game the Conference USA has been in a similar situation the past two seasons with East Carolina playing Kentucky and Arkansas, and even with flat efforts from the Wildcats and Razorbacks the SEC came out on top. I think Georgia has a little bit more to play for this time around, and if they play well, with the talent advantage, it won't be close for longer than a half.
My Pick: Georgia 35 UCF 20
Proj Pass: Georgia 248.0 yards (7.3 ypa) / UCF 188.5 yards (8.8 ypa)
Proj Rush: Georgia 148.7 yards (3.6 ypa) / UCF 186.9 yards (4.2 ypa)
Fans Pick: Georgia 100%
Chick-fil-A Bowl
#20 South Carolina vs. #23 Florida State
This is the battle between two conference championship game losers. South Carolina was man-handled by Auburn by a margin that is so big, that if I repeat it could get me sued for damaging the mental state of many Gamecocks fans, while Florida State made it all the way to the conferenc championship game in Jimbo Fisher's first season at the helm. South Carolina, having just won their first SEC East Division title, did so on the legs of RB Marucs Lattimore. The frosh busted on to the season to the tune of 1,198 yards (0.2 yards shy of averging 100/game). He has been banged up at times this season, and when he is out of the lineup this offense really..well sucks. Florida State has been solid against the run this season, though they did struggle against Virginia Tech's offense, which is very similar to what the Gamecocks run (spread; zone read-run game; mid-to-long range passes with underneath screens). It is actually tough to defend the Gamecock's run game because you have to key in on Lattimore, who is compact, quick, and keeps his feet moving making him tough to tackle, but if Garcia can also beat you with his feet. While DC Mark Stoops (brother of OU and Arizona Head Coach), has really improved the Seminoles secondary they are going to be in for a TOUGH test against the tall and talented Gamecocks receivers, namely All-American Alshon Jeffrey. If the 'Noles focus too much on Jeffrey though Garcia has shown that he is not afraid to look at other targets, mainly Tori Gurley, though D.L. Moore did make his presence known late in the season. While Garcia may have had his best season yet with SC, he has been absolutely miserable when teams are able to get pressure on him. Florida State can do just that with DE's Markus White and Brandon Jenkins, and Stoops has done very well calling blitzes at the right times this season. I look for this defense to make Garcia beat them, coming up close to try and slow down Lattimore, and bringing the heat to keep Garcia scared all night long.
Florida State has two pretty good QB's in Christian Ponder and E.J. Manuel, with Ponder being considered a 1st-2nd round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Ponder's biggest problem though is that he is often hit by the injury bug, and while he will play today, Fisher said he may not get the start due to problems with his elbow. If he is ready to go he is one of the most accurate QBs in the country, and has done very well this season recognizing blitzes and making his reads throughout the play. Manuel, who is more mobile but does a good job of extending plays and making decent throws, will see the majority of the snaps if Ponder is still hurting. Whoever starts is going to have the chance to own the air tonight, as South Carolina's pass defense has been picked on all season long giving up 253.6 yds/game, allowing opposing QBs to complete 63.1% of their passes and going -13 Int/TD ratio. No bueno. Florida State has a very talented WR corps led by Bert Reed, Willie Haulstead, Taiwan Easterling, and Rodney Smith, and while they don't have a "standout" receiver all four complement each other, run good routes, and are fairly reliable receivers. On the flip side, South Carolina has been very good against the run, and if they can slow down the Seminoles ground game, they may be able to be more prepared for the pass. They are going to need all the help they can get.
South Carolina has shown a tendency to get disappointed and have hangovers under Steve Spurrier, and after getting destroyed by Auburn, I have to wonder if they are going to come out ready to play. I expect Florida State to be able to move the ball offensively, and their defense should slow down the Gamecocks just enough for them to get the win.
My Pick: Florida State 31 South Carolina 27 (<-- UPSET)
Proj Pass: Florida State 233.7 yards (7.7 ypa) / South Carolina 240.0 yards (7.5 ypa)
Proj Rush: Florida State 134.8 yards (3.9 ypa) / South Carolina 161.3 yards (3.8 ypa)
Fans Pick: South Carolina 62%
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Alright guys, I'll be working all day. Literally. So I'll be unavailable for most of the day, but I wish all of you a happy new year, and thanks for making this first year of Where the Land Sharks Are a good one.
As always thanks for reading.
BATTEMAN
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