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| RG3 looks to lead Baylor to it's first bowl win in...well it's been awhile |
I apologize for having not posted any previews recently, but I've been working all the time, and have been spending some holiday time with the family.
I'm not going to post any big previews, with the exception of SEC bowls, and the BCS Bowls, so most of this is going to come straight from my calculation and general stuff that I can recite off the top of my head, so hopefully I sound coherent, and make some kind of sense. I'm writing most of this on my breaks at work so if I have any mistakes just let me know and i'll try and fix them.
Anyway here are my short previews for today's games.
Military Bowl Pres. By Northrop Grumman
East Carolina vs. Maryland
Maryland is far and away the better team from top to bottom, with the small exception being the QB, where Boston College transfer Dominique Davis has excelled under Carlina OC Lincoln Riley's pass happy offense (learned under Mike Leach). Davis's top receivers are Dwayne Harris and Lance Lewis, both of whom have NFL Potential. Defensively Maryland has very good pass defense. What really makes them good is not just the play of their back four, but the coverage skills of their LB's as well. The Terps aren't "great" at rushing the QB per say, but they do well enough, however East Carolina's offensive line does employ the same wide splits that the Texas Tech OL had under Leach, so I expect for Maryland to only blitz occassionaly. CB Cameron Chism is a lockdown corner for the Terps, and if the Pirates have any real success throwing this afternoon, it won't be on his side of the field.
East Carolina gave up 200+ yards on the ground (per game) this season, and while the Terps don't have a dominant offensive line, I expect many of their two TE, two HB, sets to be used, and for them to run it down the Pirates throats this afternoon. Expect for Terps RB's Davin Meggett and Da'Rel Scott to each finish with 25 + carrier and both of them at least over 70 yards rushing. Maryland QB Danny O'Brien has played really well as of late having only thrown 2 interceptions in the last three games while tossing 10-11 touchdowns. I expect for Maryland to pound the ground, but don't be surprised if the Terps hit a few big passes as well. If the Pirates put 8-9 in the box to stop the run, WR Torrey Smith can kill you deep (much the same way his predecessor Darius Heyward-Bey did).
Teams play well when they know that it is their Head Coaches last go 'round so despite all of the offseason distractions (OC Franklin going to Vandy, HC Friedgen's "forced retirement") I think the Terps will go out and play hard for the "The Fridge" in his last game.
My Pick: Maryland 42 East Carolina 28
Proj Pass: Maryland 295.7 yards (8.0 ypa) / East Carolina 300.4 yards (6.6 ypa)
Proj Rush: Maryland 202.9 yards (4.9 ypa) / East Carolina 126.3 yards (4.2 ypa)
Fans Pick: Maryland 77%
Texas Bowl
Illinois vs. Baylor
If I didn't already know they were brothers I would not believe that Paul Petrino was related to Bobby Petrino. The older Bobby is known for his work with QB's and his Pass Heavy systems. In younger Paul's first season at Illinois the Illini have run twice as many times as they have thrown the ball. But they do it pretty well, running the option with mobile freshman QB Nathan Scheelhasse, out of many differents sets. RB's Mike LeShoure and Jason Ford both go 230+ so with Scheelhasse's speed, LeShoure and Ford can also pound opposing defense's. Despite LeShoure and Ford's power running ability, I expect for Baylor to put the pressure on the freshman QB. Baylor has two massive DT's (both weigh 330+) in Phil Taylor and Nicolas Jean-Baptiste and if they play at their best you can expect the middle of that defense to be clogged up all afternoon. Scheelhasse has burst onto the scene with his running ability but his passing still needs plenty of work. He has the arm but he does not make proper decisions and his accuracty can be erradic at times. That said I give A.J. Jenkins, Jarred Fayson (former UF QB), and Eddie McGee (backup QB) an advantage over Baylor's secondary, which has torched for most of the season. If Scheelhasse can get going it is going to be a long day for Baylor.
The Bears are led by an awesome, and unheralded QB in Robert Griffin III, or RG3 as I like to call him (both Duke and JP's Scooter know that I called his success before his freshman season so HA). He is accurate, has a strong arm, and is an All-American in track, which is just a fancy way of saying he is fast. He can make plays with his feet and his arm, which spells bad news for the Illini defense after their poor performance against Denard Robinson and Michigan earlier this season. Baylor likes to spread the football field, but then pound it up the middle with RB Jay Finley, but they may have a hard time doing that as the Baylor offensive line has not seen a DT like Corey Liuget, or big LBs like Martez Wilson (250 lbs) or
Ian Thomas (245 lbs), and SLB Nate Bussey (230) who often lines up next to the DE and either blitzes or covers the TE/Slot receiver. If not matched up with a TE I expect Bussey to blitz because there is no way he will keep up with Baylor Slot WR Kendall Wright. If Illinois DC Vic Koenning leaves him alone with Wright, expect Wright to top 150 yards receiving. The big problem for the Illinois defense to me is going to be how they keep RG3 in the pocket. If you let him sit back he can burn you with his arm, but if you pressure too much he can kill you with his feet. Normally a spy would work in this situation, but Wilson is not athletic enough to slow down Griffin. Expect for Griffin to have an all-around big day for the Bears.
I like Nathan Scheelhasse and I think one of these days he could be a potential all-conference performer but RG3 is just too good, and if the inconsistent Illinois defense does not play their best football of the season, he is going to torch them. I also expect the Bears to be playing at a high level considering they haven't graced the postseason in many many years.
My Pick: Baylor 38 Illinios 28
Proj Pass: Baylor 259.3 yards (7.5 ypa) / Illinois 209.1 yards (7.5 ypa)
Proj Rush: Baylor 163.4 yards (4.6 ypa) / Illinois 250.7 yards (4.9 ypa)
Fans Pick: Baylor 67%
Valero Alama Bowl
Arizona vs. #14 Oklahoma State
Man, how different this writeup would have been if it had been earlier in the season when Arizona was top 15 and Okie Lite was still unranked. But since then the Cowboys tied for 1st in the South Division of the Big XII, while Arizona lost four in a row heading into the post season. Arizona has a pretty solid passing attack led by QB Nick Foles, who has all of the tools to become a solid starter in the NFL. He has a strong arm, and delivers a tight accurate ball to his receivers. He does not often make bad decisions either. Okie Lite DC Bill Young is known for mixing and matching his coverages and blitzes with the best of them, but where Foles excels above all else is his pre-snap reads, so I don't expect for that to phase him in the slightest. Where those varying defense will come into play is going to be the protection of Foles, who is not really moble enough to escape the pocket that well, and during Arizona's worst games offensively this season Foles has been under pressure all game (including being hurt for a few games). If the pressure gets to Foles and begins to hurt the offense, I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see more mobile backup QB Matt Scott (who increased the Wildcats' production because he was able to escape pressure) see some action. RB Keola Antolin and WR Juron Criner are both excellent receivers (Criner is considered a mid round NFL prospect) both should do well against a pass defense that finished next to last in the Big XII.
Okie Lite OC Dana Holgersen will be coaching in his last game with the pokes, but he has had the biggest impact on an offense that I have ever seen, leading the way for a team that was predicted to finish dead last in their division, and had them playing for the division title at the end of the season. Kendall Hunter is a former AA, and Holgersen uses him very effectively often with a 240+ pound FB as a lead blocker from shotgun formation. QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon are the real leaders of this offense thow, with Blackmon considered a first round pick, after winning the Biletkinoff this season. Blackmon has recorded 100+ receiving performances, and has caught at least 1 touchdown in every single game that he played this season. I expect him to do the same in tonight's game as well, but what it will come down to for the Wildcat's defense is whether or not they can stop the other receivers, from getting in on the action. The Wildcat's don't really have the secondary to do that so I expect them to blitz like hell, and DE's Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed are relentless, quick pass rushers and can get to Weeden in a hurry. Weeden does not have the prettiest footwork, and often makes poor decisions, and even worse throws when under pressure. If they don't get to Weeden, then expect this to be a loooong day for the Wildcats.
This could very well be a blowout but I'm not entirely sure that it will be. Yes the Wildcat's have lost four games in a row, but they are also the heavy underdogs in this game, and have heard all postseason about how they can't and won't win this football game. Not to mention everyone seems to be under this idea that Okie Lite is pissed off, raving mad that they did not win the division. I honestly think they are going to be disappointed, knowing that they could have been in the Fiesta Bowl, on a national stage, instead they are in the Holiday Bowl. Remember last season, after a disappointing finish to the season, the Pokes came out and laid an egg in the Cotton Bowl in a loss to Ole Miss. Gundy may very well be a man, but he is not that good of a motivator.
My Pick: Oklahoma State 35 Arizona 27
Proj Pass: Oklahoma State 316.7 yards (7.5 ypa) / Arizona 277.8 yards (6.7 ypa)
Proj Rush: Oklahoma State 185.0 yards (4.7 ypa) / Arizona 127.8 yards (3.7 ypa)
Fans Pick: Oklahoma State 97%
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Alright guys, I hope that wasn't too bad.
If you have any questions just let me know, I'm at work for the time being but I will try to answer them asap.
Thanks again for reading.
BATTEMAN
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