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| Tauren Poole will look to help Derek Dooley get a Bowl win in his first season with the Vols |
Just a reminder but I am at work right now (shhhh), and pretty much will be until my return voyage to Oxford, MS
So I am doing the best I can to put up a decent preview with limited numbers, and what I know about each team.
The Bowl Standings have been updated, so check them out if you want to see how well you are doing, and just how bad I am doing. Go ahead, rub it in.
Anyway, I was called into work early today, so I'm going to try to get these up as soon as I possibly can.
And will post updates as I put the other previews up.
*12:20pm The New Era Pinstripe Bowl preview is now up
*1:22pm I have the write up, and my pick for the remaining two bowl games, calculation numbers will be up shortly
*3:36pm I have added the numbers to the Music City Bowl and the Holiday Bowl. While working. Yup, i'm awesome.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
SMU vs. Army
Just a little FYI for those who didn't already know but this is the first time that all three service acadamies (Army, Navy, Air Force) all went to a bowl game in the same season. I chalk it up to 35 bowl games, but hey it's still pretty cool. SMU is coming off a rocky performance in the Conference USA Championship game, where their offense was held to just 7 pionts and 317 yards of offense (average
26.6ppg; 414.7ypg). SMU's sophomore QB Kyle Padron may have struggled against UCF, but Army's defense is not as talented, or as well coached as the Golden Knights. Army does not have the talent in the secondary to stop SMU's talented WR corps of Aldrick Robinson, Cole Beasley, and Darius Johnson, so I expect them to try and put as much pressure on the sophomore QB, who has struggled at times with his pre-snap reads. DE Josh McNally is going to be key in getting pressure on Padron, and he has the athletic ability, and the explosive first step to do it. He may be the best player on the Army team. MLB Stephen Anderson is also very good against the run, and it will be interesting to see how much SMU uses powerful RB Zach Line, who averaged 6+ yards per carry this season trying to keep the offense semi-balanced.
Offensively Army also has a sophomore QB in 2-year starter Trent Steelman, who has proven very capable of running the Black Knights triple option. SMU faced Navy earlier in the season, so they have seen a triple O before, not to mention they have had almost an entire month to prepare for this option. The Mustangs actually held Navy to one of their lowest yards per carry of the season (4.6ypc). One thing to worry about for Army is if they get down early, or get forced into a lot of third-and-long situations as Steelman is efficient in a quick five-yard passing system but is not a good drop back mid-to-long range passer.
While I give the athleticism advantage to SMU, and homefield advantage to SMU (playing on the Mustangs home field), I have to think that Army is going to be playing on a very high level as they have not been to a bowl game in over a decade ('98?). That said, SMU has experience against the option and should be improved on their second go around.
My Pick: SMU 28 Army 24
Proj Pass: SMU 294.4 yards (9.0 ypa) / Army 117.2 yards (7.0 ypa)
Proj Rush: SMU 133.9 yards (4.6 ypa) / Army 222.7 yards (3.9 ypa)
Fans Pick: SMU 82%
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State vs. Syracuse
I thought that Kansas State and Syracuse had a shot to make a bowl game this season, but I never thought they would have played as well as they did this season, with K State being ranked at one point this season, and Syracuse opening up 3-0 in Big East play. Kansas State has done well this season on the legs of RB Daniel Thomas is who is powerful, elusive, and fast. Unfortunately for Thomas he is about the only offense that K State has had this season. They have a pretty good offensive line led by Righ Guard Zach Kendall, but they will be going up against a tough front seven from Syracuse, with several players that have been active in stopping the run with DT's Bud Tribbey and Andrew Lewis and LB Doug Hogue being the most active. Syracuse however has not seen an offense like Kansas State's this season, and the Wildcats will do a lot more than just your normal handoff. They run two QBs in Collin Klein (more mobile) and Carson Coffman (starter; better passer), but will run and throw with both of them. The pressure is really going to be on Orange SS Shamarko Thomas is going to have to step up and help the LB's with the misdirection. If he is caught out of position too many times this K State offense (Thomas) will kill them. I don't think Kansas State can win this game in the air. Coffman, being the better passer, is still wildly inconsisten, and his accuracy can really sturggle sometimes. I think that Syracuse can leave their DB's on an island, in order to slow down the run game, and still come out successfully.
Syracuse is also a run-first team, though they use a more downhill style of attack with RB's Delone Carter and Antoine Bailey. That does not bode well for the Wildcats who have given up almost 200 rushing yards (per game) this season. While they do get some people back from injury this defense has been noted for it's poor tackling, and that is really going to hurt them if Carter and Bailey can get to the second level. But just like their counterpart Syracuse has struggled to throw the football this season. QB Ryan Nassib, ever the confident one, still forces throws downfield into tight spots that he rarely hits. If K State stacks the box and forces Nassib to beat them it could be a very long day for the Orange.
I am looking for Syracuse, another team who has not been in a few years to be really up for this bowl game, and for K State, a team not used to playing in the cold in the Northeast, to come out a bit slow. Syracuse's defense should be ready to go, and whichever teams wins the battle on the ground should come out on top.
My Pick: Syracuse 27 Kansas State 24 (<-- UPSET)
Proj Pass: Syracuse 190.2 yards (6.7 ypa) / Kansas State 173.2 yards (6.4 ypa)
Proj Rush: Syracuse 182.5 yards (5.3 ypa) / Kansas State 190.1 yards (4.0 ypa)
Fans Pick: Kansas State 72%
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (<-- Ridiculously long sponsor name..sigh)
Tennessee vs. North Carolina
This is a very interesting game considering where most people had pegged these teams to start the season. UNC was the sexy pick in the ACC with all of their defensive talent, while man had Tennessee fighting with Vandy and Kentucky for last in the SEC East. After a slew of supsensions and injuries North Carolina finds themselves at 7-5, while Tennessee, on a four-game win streak, finds themselves at 6-6 and happy to make a bowl game. UNC is still beat up, especially in the backfield as Shaun Draugh and Johnny White are banged up (Darughn is questionable, White doubtful), and they look to start Anthony Elzy this afternoon in their place. I really don't see an advantage either way in the trenches, but UNC will be without a starting O-Lineman for the game. That could cause problems as I expect Vols DC Justin Wilcox to blitz (and forget how many players are supposed to be on the field) A LOT, and put a lot of pressure on Heel's QB T.J. Yates. Yates is a decent passer who can win games with his arm and he has the best unheard of receiver in the country in 6'5 220lb WR Dwight Jones. Jones has speed to kill, and the ups to go up and fight for jump balls. The Vols have a talented secondary, but it will be interesting to see how they cover Jones, as North Carolina loves to pound the ball, hit some underneath routes, and then attack deep with Jones. If UT sells out on the underneath Jones could burn them, but if they try to play it safe UNC could keep hitting their reliable underneath WR Erik Highsmith, TE Ed Barham, and FB Ryan Taylor all game long.
As for UT's offense they have started a true frosh at QB in Tyler Bray who has been pretty impressive so far, and he has plenty of options to work with. Mainly those are WR's Denarius Moore and Gerald Jones, TE Luke Stocker, and RB Tauren Poole. While UNC has a pretty solid CB in Kendric Burney he gives up a lot as far height is concerned which could be a problem on jump balls. I like how Tennessee's set of receivers and running backs match up with the UNC Secondary, but Tyler Bray needs to keep his eyes downfield, as the Tar Heels LBs are great in coverage and play dump-offs and screens very well. The key is going to be how UT's offensive line, which has started seven different combinations this season, plays against a very athletic Tar Heels D-Line. UT often keeps up to seven plays in front of Bray to protect him, but he is going to need solid play out of the interior of his O-Line more than anything else. Bray has a bad habit of holding onto the ball too long and if the Heels start getting pressure up the middle they can get a sack or force an errant throw or two, and Heel Safeteis D'Anoriss Searcy and Deunta Williams will eat errant throws up all day long. In fact Tennessee's offensive line is going to really be the key for them in this game. If they play well Tennessee can put up enough points to win comfortably with all of their weapons, but if they struggle against a very talented UNC front seven than they may not score at all.
While I always have problems going against the SEC, I really do have a hard time seeing the UT offfensive line performing well in this game. The Tar Heels could spend all day in the UT backfield, and slow down RB Poole and cause QB Bray to make too many throws on the run. I like for WR Jones to get behind the UT secondary at least once and that could be the difference in the game.
My Pick: North Carolina 27 Tennessee 17
Proj Pass: North Carolina 248.6 yards (7.5 ypa) / Tennessee 259.3 yards (7.1 ypa)
Proj Rush: North Carolina 142.3 yards (4.0 ypa) / Tennessee 140.6 yards (3.8 ypa)
Fans Pick: Tennessee 59%
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
#18 Nebraska vs. Washington
This game is a rematch of an earlier game (slaughter) that was played at Washington, in which the Cornhuskers rolled over the Huskies (a lot) - (a little). Nebraska comes into this game a little bit disappointed as for the second season in a row they had a lead in the fourth quarter in the Big XII championship game yet end in a mid-range bowl game against the Pac-10. Taylor Martinez opened up the season with a bang running all over people, and occassionally throwing the ball, and was considered, alongside Michigan QB Denard Robinson, an early odds-on favorite to win the Heisman. Since then he has been hurt, and been under much scrutiny as he has not had the same explosion, and has been criticized by his coaches for his decision making. He is should be healthy for this game, and if he is right mentally as well, he combines with Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead to be the most dangerous read option in all of college football (Auburn you don't run a read option, you run a "Maybe Cam will hand it off this time, nope, he ran with it again" style of offense). Using that style of offense they ran all over Washington's defense to the tune of 383 yards on the ground earlier this season. Expect Washington to make some changes. Or just let them score on the first play, as to give their offense more opportunities. Seriously though I do expect a better game out of the Huskies defense, as their DC Nick Holt is one of the better defensive minds in the country (Belichick and Carroll understudy) and should come up with a better plan to stop them. Where this will be key for the Huskies is on 1st and 2nd down, because if LB Mason Foster and Co. can slow down the rushing attack they should have a strong advantage through the air. The Cornhuskers main passing threat is WR Niles Paul, who catches just about all of the lame ducks tossed at him by Martinez and turns them into big plays. The problem with that is Paul is hurt (questionable) and even if he does play, he has a foot injury that will surely slow him down by a step or two.
QB Jake Locker is having a "Jevan Snead" type of season this year for the Huskies, after having been the sexy QB after last season, with many thinking he was the best QB in this year's class. If he is, he'll have to prove that at the next level because he lost a lot of money this season. I'll actually do some research and highlight some of his poor efforts for you guys. If you combine his worst games (Nebraska, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and UCLA...huh the tougher defenses on his schedule) he has combined to throw for
109.2 yds/game, completing just 46.2% of his passes, while throwing for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. If you struggle like that against decent defenses, Nebraska is not who you want to face. They have futre 1st-3rd round picks scattered all over their defense in the form of DE Pierre Allen, DT Jared Crick, LB Lavante David, FS Eric Hagg, CB Prince (you try and spell this off the top of you head) Amukumara (?), and CB Alfonzo Dennard. In their first meeting I thought one of Washington's problems was that they abandoned the run waaaay too quickly and if they are going to generate any kind of offense they are going to need to make sure that RB Chris Polk gets a good share of touches. That should keep the defense honest, and if they can roll Locker out, he makes more plays while moving, than I feel that could help him regain some of his confidence and maybe get that offense in rhythm.
This just feels like one of those bowl game upsets. Nebraska comes in, being so close to making winning the Big XII in their last year in the conference, and making a BCS Bowl, and instead they are having to face 6-6 Washington, a team they have already killed...sigh. They have a talented, but young QB who has shown decision making problems, and some injuries at key positions. While Washington is coming in seeking revenge, this is also the first time that any of these players have been in a bowl game so you know they are excited, and they have to be looking to send their senior QB out with a big win. I could write this story before it even happens. Unfortunately I still feel that Nebraska will win this football game.
My Pick: Nebraska 31 Washington 21
Proj Pass: Nebraska 196.6 yards (7.8 ypa) / Washington 171.4 yards (5.9 ypa)
Proj Rush: Nebraska 278.4 yards (5.4 ypa) / Washington 146.8 yards (4.0 ypa)
Fans Pick: Nebraska 95%
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Alright guys, tonight while I am watching these games, I am going to begin working on tomorrow's previews so I don't get stuck in a jam like I did today. I apologize for the lateness.
As always though guys, thanks for reading.
BATTEMAN
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