Week 6 NCAA Picks

Hey there guys,

As usual because of a lack of time I am again putting the SEC picks up right now, and I'll see what I can get done and get up by Saturday.

SEC Picks

Tennessee @ Georgia
If you like watching two teams who used to be good, but suck now, going at it then this is the game for you. Tennessee is off a heart breaker at LSU, a game that LSU for all intents and purposes dominated but constant turnovers kept the Vols in the game, where they lost on the last play because of a giant, huge, monumental lack of awareness by Head Coach Derek Dooley. I don't even know where to start with Georgia. Something is wrong. That's actually all that needs to be said. All hope is not lost for the Bulldogs but if they are going to turn things around it starts with this game. It's hard to find too many weaknesses or strengths for each team. It's more like picking the lesser of too evils. Matt Simms or frosh Aaron Murray? I'll take Murray. Inexpereinced Dooley or overly Christian Richt? Jesus doesn't have anything to do with it but Richt is very experienced in the SEC and I'll take him over Dooley, whose playcalling seems unimaginative and conservative, and his decision making leaves many scratching their heads. Georgia has a huge special teams advantage and I like their homefield advantage between the hedges I expect the Bulldogs to look a little better tomorrow.
My Pick: Georgia 28-17
Projected Pass: Georgia 231.9 / Tennessee 192.5
Projected Rush: Georgia 176.4 / Tennessee 78.8

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (in Jerry World)
Everyone looks back to last years "blowout" and assumes the same thing is going to happen this season. Fact is that Texas A&M dropped 2 key passes, one in the endzone, and one inside the piggie's 5, and would turn the ball over either the next play or the one that followed. This season you would think that Texas A&M was going to get their revenge right? Well Arkansas's defense has actually looked better, and Mallett has learned that to become a more complete passer then you might want to put some touch on the ball. Thus the Hogs are top 15. I do not think that the Hogs have had to face a top QB so far this season, and Jerrod Johnson is a very underrated QB but is one of the best in the country. He can beat you running, he knows how to put touch on the deep ball, and can still zip a bullet when he needs to. His problem so far this season has been turnovers, as the Aggies more than likely beat Okie Lite last Thursday if Johnson does not turn the ball over 5 times. But this is not just a passing team, they actually run the ball very well and Christine Michael can take over games. Arkansas defense has a huge challenge ahead of them. That being said Texas A&M hasn't faced a "Ryan Mallett" so far this season either. The Hogs are coming off a bye week, and I think they have had enough time to get over the heart breaking loss to Alabama and should respond with a sound win.
My Pick: Arkansas 38-23
Projected Pass: Arkansas 283.3 / Texas A&M 227.4
Projected Rush: Arkansas 82.7 / Texas A&M 138.5

#1 Alabama @ #20 South Carolina
This game to me is quite similar to the Oregon @ Stanford game last season. Oregon was coming off a huge win that put them in the drivers seat to win the Pac-10 and no one gave any second thought to Stanford, the home team that was on the rise and coming off a bye. Well South Carolina, who played Alabama a lot closer than the 20-6 loss last year in Tuscaloosa indicates, gets a bye week for Alabama, and while Gameday is going to Columbia for the game, no one is giving the 'Cocks much of a chance. They have something that they did not have last season, a viable rush attack with true frosh RB Marcus Lattimore, and if he can get a little more room that would free the offense up, and hopefully keep QB Steven Garcia from making too many mistakes. South Carolina does not have a great defense, but they do have a very good defensive coordinator in Ellis Johnson, so they are always going to be tough, and now they have had an extra week to prepare. Florida showed last weekend that Alabama's offense can be stopped, holding the Tide to just 273 yards of total offense, keeping both Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram under 70 yards rushing (110 combined) and keeping everything in front of them in the secondary (QB McElroy 4.9 yards per pass). If they can build on that they could give themselves a chance. Columbia is going to be rocking for this game, and Bama is coming off two back to back top ten opponents. That being said I don't like Carolina QB Steven Garcia in big games, and I think Bama's defense will give him too many problems. Stanford had QB Andrew Luck and RB Toby Gerhart. Garcia and Lattimore are not as dominant as that duo. Tide wins.
My Pick: Alabama 27-17
Projected Pass: Alabama 210.5 / S. Carolina 208.8
Projected Rush: Alabama 175.7 / S. Carolina 132.1

Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt
I'll keep this one simple for you. Vanderbilt has a very underrated defense, and Eastern Michigan is pretty bad on offense. Vanderbilt really is only pretty decent at running the ball with Zac Stacy and Warren Norman. Eastern Michigan has a god awful run d. Next.
My Pick: Vanderbilt 42-14
Projected Pass: Vandy 233.3 / E. Michigan 147.4
Projected Rush: Vandy 266.8 / E. Michigan 96.0

#12 LSU @ #14 Florida
Any and everyone that I have talked to this week all believes that Florida is going to run away with this game. I don't necessarily believe that. Many people are discrediting LSU because they got lucky in beating Tennessee last week. Understandable. But not a single one of those people knew that LSU outgained Tennessee by well over 200 yards. It was just 4 turnovers that killed them. My Power Rankings have LSU's defense #1, and Florida's offense has not looked overly impressive, outside of one outing against Kentucky. Trey Burton provides a threat that they Bayou Bengals are going to have to pay attention to but this LSU defense has the best front 7 in the SEC with the line led by DT Drake Nevis, and the LBs led by Kelvin Shepard. They are athletic and well coached by DC John Chavis. Think that Florida WRs have struggled so far this season? Wait till they have to go up against the best CB in the country in Patrick Peterson. Don't underestimate this LSU team. Florida has also struggled a bit this season in their punt coverage. Julio Jones is a great athlete, but a mediocre punt returner. He burned the Gators for a 41 yard return that set up a score last weekend. If you don't contain Peterson on a punt return he will score on you. Where Florida has a clear advantage is when their defense is on the field. Stevan Ridley is a good back, but he is no Ingram/Richardson and I expect Florida to focus on stopping him and force either Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee to win the game. Jordan Jefferson has been setting new standards for bad QB play so far this season. His completion % (51.7%) is 11th out of 11 qualifying SEC QBs, as is his yards per attempt (5.0), and his TD-INT ratio (2-6), and his QB Rating (88.01). Off 17 QBs that have attempted a pass he is 13th in yards per game (89.8) including behind BOTH Miss St QBs. Jefferson starts because he can make plays with his legs, but Lee is the better passer by far. He is completing 72% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, and his QB Rating is 133.22. Whoever starts will have the complete benefit of working with the best receiving corps in the SEC. Problem however is that whoever starts will also have the disadvantage of playing the best secondary in the SEC, and maybe even the country. I look for LSU to win the field position battle, with their defense and special teams but for an inefficient offense and a late turnover by Lee to lose this game in the end.
My Pick: Florida 20-17
Projected Pass: Florida 159.2 / LSU 123.0
Projected Rush: Florida 115.4 / LSU 148.8

#8 Auburn @ Kentucky
This game is actually pretty intriguing. Kentucky beat Auburn last season 17-14, running all over them. They did not have QB Hartline either. Kentucky may as well have been preparing for this game last week as Ole Miss is very similar to Auburn. Mobile QB, run first, underrated WRs, though Auburn has a better O-Line. Same on defense. Strong front 4, stout against the run, very underrated LBs, but a weak secondary. This is also going to be huge in Lexington as this is HC Joker Phillips first top ten team that he welcomes into the not to friendly confines of Commonwealth Stadium. 'Cat QB Mike Harline could very well have a big day. Normally this would be an easy upset pick for me. But Kentucky struggled to stop the run last weekend, and Auburn definitely has a more potent rushing attack then Ole Miss. Also, while Kentucky was able to run all over last season, the emergence of Tiger DT Nick Fairley, and the injury plagued Wildcat O-Line don't bode well for that to happen this year. I think Kentucky keeps it close, but Auburn has had some great 2nd halves so far this season and I see them pulling away in the end.
My Pick: Auburn 38-27
Projected Pass: Auburn 162.8 / Kentucky 222.2
Projected Rush: Auburn 228.4 / Kentucky 119.3

Mississippi St @ Houston
I was thinking that Mississippi St was going to pull of an upset in Houston before the season began. Now that thought has changed. I still think that MSU wins. But now they are the favorite. Why? I'll imagine it has something to do with their solid defense, that and Houston playing their 3rd string QB, and losing one of their top wideouts to suspension prior to this game. MSU's defense has played very well so far this season, and I expect them to keep it up, with DT/DE Pernell McPhee putting pressure on the QB form inside and outside. Houston is not that good on defense and I think that MSU runs the ball all over them, keeping the Cougar Offense on the sidelines.
My Pick: Miss St 31-24
Projected Pass: Miss St 206.2 / Houston 216.7
Projected Rush: Miss St 195.2 / Houston 140.1

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I am about to eat some dinner, and then I am going to lock myself away and try to get as many picks as I can possibly get done.

If you have any questions just email me at wherethelandsharskare@gmail.com

BATTEMAN