2010 Week 5 NCAA Picks

Hey there guys,

As promised I am going to put the SEC picks up first. I will be putting up the rest of the picks later as I finish them.

I am currently 1-0 for the week, as I picked Oklahoma St to beat Texas A&M 38-31, and the Cowboys did defeat the Aggies, but I was four points off, as the final tally was 38-35.

Anyway guys, hope you enjoy the picks this week.

Week 5 Picks (by conference)

Just a little heads up, for the SEC and all games where Top 25 members play each other, I will be posting my Calculations (one of them, at least) Projected Passing yards and Projected Rushing yards. If you see in my projection for each game that I do not agree with my Calculation, that is because I am not a computer, and if I feel that a game is going to go differently I will not hide behind the calculation. Also if an SEC team plays an FCS opponent I will not post my numbers for those because of a lack of information needed to complete the calculation.

Louisiana-Monroe @ #10/#11 Auburn
While this game does not excite me, the Warhawks can make this a little intriguing. Remember that three weeks ag0 they held Arkansas, and Ryan Mallett, to just 7 points through 2 quarters of play. Granted Arkansas was heading to Georgia the following week, while Auburn is just headed to Kentucky. Cam Newton has played well for the Tigers, taking what defenses are giving him, and making good plays. Twice he has lead the Tiger offense to come from behind victories this season. Overall I look for Auburn to control this game, and rest the starters early.
My Pick: Auburn 49-13
Projected Pass: Auburn 292.5 / ULM 114.7
Projected Rush: Auburn 293.6 / ULM 72.1

Vanderbilt @ UCONN
Heading into the season the Huskies had this dark horse feel to them. Could they be the team to upset the order in the Big East? A win here would certainly help, as they have been throttled by Michigan, and upset by Temple. It is going to be interesting to see how they run their offense as they will be without RB Jordan Todman, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. The Huskies will play both QBs Zach Frazier and Cody Endres, but haven't developed a go to receiver just yet. Vanderbilt has had an underrated defense for several years now and this season is no different. The 'Dores have a fantastic front 4, and an underrated LB corps lead by Chris Marve. I believe they will create a lot of trouble for the Huskies up front, and force the duel QBs to win the game for UCONN. If Vandy is to pull off the upset they are going to have to get something out of QB Larry Smith. Smith has proved very inefficient at times this season, and has only competed 53.7% of his passes, for 383 yards, 1td and 1int. Zac Lacy and Warren Norman are outstanding backs for the 'Dores, but they are going to face a tough run defense, that despite having played both Michigan and Temple, two very good rushing teams, are doing a better than most job at stopping the run. It is going to come down to which QB is better, and given that option I'll take the home Huskies and Frazier and Endres over Larry Smith on the road
My Pick: UCONN 27-17
Projected Pass: UCONN 214.4 / Vanderbilt 143.2
Projected Rush: UCONN 205.1 / Vanderbilt 143.6

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
This is a very interesting game, as the Rebels have not looked anywhere near like an SEC team so far this season, but played a much better game this past week, routing Fresno St 55-38, while Kentucky has looked solid all throughout the season, up until this past weeks game @ Florida, where they were routed 14-48. Kentucky poses several problems offensively for the Rebels defense, including Derrick Locke, an '09 all conference back that can grind the clock and make big plays. QB Mike Hartline is having his best season as a Wildcat so far, and WR/QB/RB/KR Randall Cobb can hurt you in more ways than most humans have fingers. The Rebels defense has not played anywhere near the level that many, including myself expected them to play, and last week they lost '09 all conference DE Kentrell Lockett, and that is going to hurt a defense that my power rankings list as #80 in the county even more. The Rebels D did play a lot better this past weekend, until they got up by 31 in the 3rd. If the Rebels Defense can play a full 4 quarters than this could be the match up of the weekend. Offensively the Rebels showed something this past week which they haven't done all season, and that was the ability to run between the tackles. Add that into an offense that has speed in RB Jeff Scott, and power with RB Brandon Bolden, a mobile QB in Jeremiah Masoli and this Kentucky defense may be in trouble again, after giving up 466 yards to Florida. I thought that both of these teams were even heading into the game, but I will take Ole Miss, whose confidence should be on the rise after last weeks win, over Kentucky, whose confidence may be shaken after getting throttled by Florida last week.
My Pick: Ole Miss 35-31
Projected Pass: Ole Miss 192.7 / Kentucky 205.7
Projected Rush: Ole Miss 245.9 / Kentucky 130.3

Alcorn St @ Mississippi St
Don't overlook Alcorn St, Bulldogs. They are averaging 39 points per game, while only allowing 19 points per game. The numerous upsets by FCS schools should have Mississippi State fully aware though, and with their confidence rising after a big win over Georgia, I expect Dan Mullen's squad to roll through another one, as they try to build towards heading to the post season.
My Pick: Mississippi St 42-3

Tennessee @ #12/#10 LSU
I don't expect much from this game. In years past this might have been a big match up. But Tennessee had not shown much outside of the first half so far this season. QB Matt Sims has been inefficient, and their offensive line is showing it's lack of experience. Two things you do not want to see against this LSU defense, which my power rankings have as #1 in the nation. Many people considered Noel Devine to be a legit heisman candidate, and for Geno Smith to be a great mixture of Pat White and Jarrett Brown. A mobile QB and also a very good passer. For me it is safe to say that I would take West Virginia's offense over Tennessee's this season. And LSU's defense held the Mountaineers to 177 total yards of offense. LSU has not shown much offensively this season, and despite having, at least in my opinion, the best set of WRs in the SEC, and a solid run game lead by RB Stevan Ridley, LSU QB Jordan Jefferson is just not getting the job done. This season he is completing just 54.5% of his passes, for 104.8 yards per game, 2td and 4int. Tennessee's defense is the main cause for their half streakiness, as they have allowed just 3 touchdowns int he first half this season, but 8 in the second half. With that said I look for this game to remain close in the beginning but for LSU to pull away in the second half.
My Pick: LSU 28-3
Projected Pass: LSU 192.3 / Tennessee 125.6
Projected Rush: LSU 228.8 / Tennessee 62.9

Georgia @ Colorado
I stared at this game for the longest time. Colorado has not looked bad this season. They are 2-1, and in even their loss to California they played well, just turned the ball over in key areas, that lead to Cal touchdowns. But the return of A.J. Green is too much. The Buffalo's have played solid run defense all season long, but they have not faced a talent like Washaun Ealey. I think he can pound the ball and open up some lanes for true frosh QB Aaron Murray to find WR Green, and WR Taveres King, and TE Orson Charles. If Colorado has a weakness defensively it is definitely in the secondary, and that is not something you want to hear when A.J. Green comes to visit. Defensively the 'Dawgs from Athens have actually played pretty well this season, and their weakness is also in the secondary. However that is not a strength of the Colorado Offense. I do not like Tyler Hansen as a passer, and Cody Hawkins can make some critical mistakes. If UGA Head Coach Mark Richt is going to keep his job than it going to have to start this weekend. I like the 'Dawgs to win this one.
My Pick: Georgia 24-17
Projected Pass: Georgia 222.4 / Colorado 194.9
Projected Rush: Georgia 88.5 / Colorado 114.6

GAME OF THE WEEK
#7/#7 Florida @ #1/#1 Alabama
Alabama vs. Florida. Nick Saban vs. Urban Meyer. West vs. East. Ground and Pound vs. Spread and Speed. This is not just a matchup of two SEC teams. This is a rivalry. These are the two premier teams in the SEC, and they each bring something different to the game. And this season, I expect another great game. Alabama has a powerful rushing offense, with the Thunder and Hurricane combination of Heisman Winner Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, who may be better than Ingram when it is all said and done. And I expect Florida's defense to stack up against the run from the start. DT Jaye Howard is very good, and if he doesn't take any plays off can make life miserable for an interior lineman. While they do not have Brandon Spikes anymore the Gators still have a talented rotation of LBs that should also help slow down the run game for Bama. I expect for the Gators to force Greg McElroy win this football game. Greg McElroy has shown so far this season that he is a better QB than a year ago, but outside of one drive against Auburn last season (a Tiger team that was not known for it's defense), McElroy has yet to really go out and win a big game for Alabama. He struggled when teams stacked up against Ingram last season. See South Carolina and Tennessee '09. And Florida has a very good secondary, one that leads the nation in interceptions. Bama needs to stay out of passing situations, because I will take DE Justin Trattou over just about any LT in the country, and Alabama's RT D.J. Fluker struggled in pass protection against Arkansas last week. If they can establish some sort of ground game though, McElroy will be able to use play action and that is where he is dangerous. That being said I don't like Florida's offense in this game. Arkansas was able to create some open passing situations because of their brusing backs, pounding the interior of Bama's defense and Ryan Mallet's downfield passing. Florida QB Brantley has not attacked downfield that often this season, and Floria's speed rushing has not done much the last two seasons against Nick Sabans defense. Especially since Jeff Demps is hurt, playing, but still hurt. While Bama's defense is certainly not as good as the '09 version, I look for them to play well at home, and shut down the Florida offense, putting the Tide offense in good situations, where they can grind the clock and score enough to win.
My Pick: Alabama 27-17
Projected Pass: Alabama 220.0 / Florida 189.5
Projected Rush: Alabama 161.5 / 136.7

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Alright guys I am going to finish the rest of my picks and post them as I get done

As always you know I love to hear what you think so either leave a comment below, or contact us at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

Don't forget to follow us at Twitter @WTLSharksare, and also don't forget to become a fan of Where the LandSharks Are on Facebook!

BATTEMAN