SEC Week 8 Picks

Hey there guys,

You'll notice that I am now just calling it the SEC picks. Haven't had time to put up anything else so far this season. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and craps out little duck pellets, might as well call it a duck.

I will say that I will not be providing the numbers to my calculation this week. The website I normally go to for my numbers recently removed two very key split statistics that I use, meaning that I believe that my calculation is incomplete. I am going to go back and compile all of the numbers for the SEC games myself, and provide an even more in depth SEC projection starting either next week, or the following week. We'll see whenever I can get it done. It's gonna be awesome.

Anyway guys, here are this weeks picks. Maybe this weekend in the SEC won't be nearly as bad for me, though I do predict it to be somewhere near as hectic.

SEC

Ole Miss @ #23 Arkansas
Houston Nutt is 2-0 vs. Arkansas since he left after the '08 season. And I have to be honest with you. I see Ole Miss winning again this week. Call me a homer. I don't care. This is just a pure gut feeling from a normally pessimistic (for good reason) Rebel fan. But this just looks like a game that Ole Miss can win. The Ole Miss defense played there best game of the season this past week against Alabama, and if they didn't allow an 85 yard screen pass, the Rebels would have actually out gained the Crimson Tide. I realize that is a big if, but an if nonetheless. My point remains that Ole Miss defense played lights out, and has played lights out against Arkansas under Tyrone Nix, having given up only 342.5yds per game in 2 seasons against a Petrino lead offense, and only 19 points. Arkansas has a solid offense, as it showed against Auburn this past weekend, racking up 566 yards and 43 points, but they were held scoreless in the first half against Louisiana-Monroe, and only scored 20 on Alabama (not bad really), and 24 vs Texas A&M. What worries me about this offense is that they are going to start QB Ryan Mallett this weekend. Mallett is a very good QB but one of his biggest problems has been questionable decision making, and now he is coming off of a head injury. Not trying to be funny, but a dumb person can't afford too many hits to the head. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a few mistakes this Saturday that cost their offense some points. The real problem for the Razorbacks is their defense, as they are giving up 427.7 yards per game in conference play, including the 470 they gave up to Auburn this past weekend. They really only gave up 51 points, as I am excluding the fumble return, and the TD that was set up by a blocked punt. But anything over 30 is bad in the SEC. Ole Miss has the weapons to move the football, and if Rebel QB Jeramiah Masoli can play as well as he did in the 2nd half vs. Alabama then the Rebs should be able to move the football this weekend. Neither team has done very well as far as special teams are concerned, so it will really come down to whoever makes the least amount of mistakes. Petrino is a name. Bobby Petrino and Ryan Mallett are the reasons why this team is ranked right now. Houston Nutt is not the greatest coach in the world, and sometimes his play-calling can leave even the dumbest fan scratching their head in confusion. But if there is anything Nutt does well is play well against Top 25 teams. Ole Miss wins.
My Pick: Ole Miss 31 Arkansas 28 <---- UPSET

#6 LSU @ #4 Auburn
Easily the game of the week. This game pits my #1 Defense in LSU against my #1 Offense in Auburn. Cameron Newton is not the world's greatest passer but he sure is one of the best mobile QB's that I have ever watched in college football. He is a like a tougher Matt Jones. I say that Newton is not the greatest passer because the majority of his throws are screens, swing passes, or deep throws. He is able to hit the deep throws because secondaries have to stay up because they do not want Newton to run all over them. LSU finally presents a match up that can slow down Newton. They have a defensive line that has performed extremely well this season, averaging 10TFLs on the road and 8.5TFLs in conference play this season, and they have also only allowed 1.8 yards per rush and 2.8 yards per rush in those same situations respectively. The Linebackers at LSU are also very good lead by Kelvin Shepard, who I believe is the best LB in the SEC. And in the secondary there is not a better corner in the country than Patrick Peterson. I think the LSU defensive line will be able to put pressure on Newton, and the LSU LBs are athletic enough to be able to contain his running abilities for the most part. If Newton is forced to pass I am not sure that Auburn can win this football game. LSU has a top 25 pass defense, and in the games vs. BCS conference opponents (that have held Newton to less than 100 yards rushing) Cam Newton has completed 18-33 (54.5%), for 339 yds (169.5/game) and 4td 3int. Not very impressive numbers. They resemble more Jevan Snead than they do Heisman Candidate. I expect for LSU's front 7 to be prepared this weekend. LSU's offense hasn't exactly been the best all season and their only bright spot has really been RB Stevan Ridley. They are going to need more than just Ridley if they plan on pulling the upset this weekend as Auburn has one of the best run defenses in the SEC, lead up front by DT Nick Fairley. Les Miles has already announced that he will start Jordan Jefferson this weekend, but I don't think anyone can be so dumb as to keep him in for the majority of the game. I think that Jefferson will make some mistakes that will force Miles to play QB Jarrett Lee. Auburn's secondary hopes that I am wrong. Jarrett Lee is completing 72% of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and has the 3rd best QB rating (149.24) of any QB to throw 50 passes or more since 2004 (the other two are All SEC Qbs Matt Flynn and JaMarcus Russell). Yes those numbers are meant to hype him up a bit, and in reality he isn't great. But it doesn't take a great QB to take advantage of Auburn's secondary. An inexperienced QB Tyler Wilson, receiving his first major playing time of his career picked Auburn's secondary apart like nothing I have ever seen. If Lee plays I expect him to attack Auburn's secondary and effectively use Ridley. I do expect Lee to play. And I do expect LSU to win. The Hat finds a way to get it done.
My Pick: LSU 27 Auburn 24 <--- UPSET

#21 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt
Believe it or not this game has been rather close over the past 4 seasons, and one of my calculations, which averages together games from the past 4 seasons, putting more weight on more recent games, games at the location that this seasons game takes place, and games that involve both the current Head Coaches, and averages the scores all together, says that South Carolina will win 17-16. And I would not be surprised to see that score this weekend. Though it did not show this past weekend at Georgia, Vanderbilt seems to field a surprisingly decent defense every season and I think they might be able to keep South Carolina in check on Saturday. Especially since Marcus Lattimore is doubtful for the game. Lattimore has been the key to the South Carolina offense, and after he was taken out with an injury at Kentucky the Gamecocks would not score again. Vandy doesn't have much of a homefield advantage but I do give them a slight advantage in special teams as Warren Norman and Zac Stacy, their two big name backs, also return kicks. I think that Spurrier will pull off the win here, but as long as Lattimore remains hurt, this South Carolina team has a large uncertainty in it's future.
My Pick: South Carolina 27 Vanderbilt 17

UAB @ #24 Mississippi St
I did not believe that MSU would be ranked this season, but they have proven me wrong and enter in the BCS, Coaches, and AP Polls ranked at #24 after a win in the Swamp vs Florida. UAB is a dangerous team (ask UT), but if there is anything that Miss St has done extremely well so far this season it is take care of business in their out of conference schedule. I think they will do so again this week.
My Pick: Miss St 45 UAB 14

#8 Alabama @ Tennessee
The Crimson Tide are still searching for some answers offensively as they are averaging just 314 yards per game in the month of October. Teams have formed a giant line up by the line of scrimmage to stop Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram, and the combo have produced to average just over 3 yards per carry in Oct. McElroy has taken sack after sack and just hasn't shown that he can really lead the offense when the game is put on him. He averaged less than 6 yards per pass against Florida, took a lot of crucial sacks against South Carolina, and if you exclude an 85 yard screen pass against Ole Miss than he only throws for 134 (5.6 ypa). Lucky for the Tide they will be facing a Tennessee defense that is still figuring out just how many need to be on the field at one time. This Vol defense has seen it's share of troubles this season: 9/11 they gave up 48 points and 447 yards to Oregon; 9/25 they give up 544 yards and 29 points to UAB, also playing with just 10 men on the field, twice; 10/2 give up 434 yards to an atrocious LSU offense, and with the game on the line Dooley sent two too many men on the field and they lose on the next play; 10/9 they give up 402 yard and 41 points to Georgia, and once again, go out to play with 10 men on the field. Offensively they haven't had the best of luck either, and Alabama, who is playing a little banged up, and tired (this will be their 8th consecutive week in a row to play) has a bye week to look forward too meaning I think they will be balls to the wall. I believe that this game will be close early, but as UT's lack of depth starts to take it's affect in the second half I believe that Alabama will find it's way and win fairly big.
My Pick: Alabama 35 Tennessee 14

Georgia @ Kentucky
This is a very interesting game. The question for Kentucky is how do you avoid the same hangover that just happened to the team you beat? If Kentucky can keep their heads in the game than this is a very winnable game for them. Keep in mind that this Georgia team has only one win in conference play so far this season and that was at home against Tennessee. Kentucky has lost two games in the conference on the road, and their loss at home was against Auburn, right after they tied it up with the Tigers too I might add. I have to be honest though. I do believe there will be a hangover of sorts for the Wildcats, and after watching Aaron Murray and the Bulldogs offense have a monster game last week, I expect them to avenge last season's loss and have another big game. The chaos inside of me wants to pick Kentucky so they can win the east. If you haven't heard my Kentucky chaos theory just ask. It's totally believable too. But seriously Dogs win.
My Pick: Georgia 38 Kentucky 28

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Aight guys, this is what I got. Hopefully by next week I will be able to have my new calculation ready, and be able to show it off. We'll see.

Batteman