NCAA Week 7 Picks

Hey there guys,

Here are my week 7 picks.

SEC

Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Did Georgia finally figure out what was wrong against Tennessee last weekend? Or is UT just that bad? I'm not sure if Vandy is the right team to prove either way, though this game does present some interesting points. #1 being how can Washaun Ealy handle being the main running back again after being benched for his fumbles in key situations? It may not even matter, as I think that Georgia will have to win through the air as Vandy has had some solid run defense so far this season and their front four have given people fits all season long. Their secondary however is not as strong so I expect A.J. Green and Aaron Murry to have pretty big days. Georgia's defense has struggled at times this season but it's main strength has been rush defense, however Vandy's ONLY strength on offense is rushing. I give Georgia the talent edge here, and I expect 'Dore QB Larry Smith to make enough unforced errors to allow Georgia to get a comfortable lead.
My Pick: Georgia 31-14
Proj Pass: Georgia 237.8 / Vandy 152.4
Proj Rush: Georgia 196.5 / Vandy 80.7

#12 Arkansas @ #7 Auburn
I have been going back and forth with this game all week but I think I have settled on an answer. At first glance this game looks like it is going to be a track meet. Arkansas' defense is improved but still poor, and they have struggled against the run at times so far this season. Auburn has been able to run the ball with ease through their first 6 games of '10, lead by Heisman Candidate Cam Newton and a host of other backs. At the same time though Auburn's secondary has struggled for the majority of this season, and Arkansas also has a Heisman Candidate for a QB, though Ryan Mallett is known more for his arm and not his legs. Both of these offenses have the ability to hit it big at any time, as Auburn is #2 in the SEC in plays of 30 yards or more and Arkansas leads the SEC in plays of 40 yards or more. That being said I expect both defenses to try and keep the big plays in front of them. Arkansas has LBs athletic enough to stay with Cam Newton, and force him to move the ball with his arm. Newton is pretty good at throwing the ball downfield, but that is mostly because teams have to respect the fact that he could take off at anytime, therefore bringing the DBs up. If Arkansas is successfully able to keep Newton in the Pocket, he really hasn't shown enough to as a short to mid range passer for me to believe that they Auburn can move the football. Arkansas on the other hand has heavily relied on the big play so far this season. They were held to 7 points at halftime by UL-Monroe, and only put up 24 points on the "Big XII" defense of Texas A&M. I expect for Auburn's D-Line to get pressure, and force Mallett into making some hurried decisions, and a lot of mistakes, while Auburn runs the ball and wears out the Arkansas defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn come from behind to win this game as well.
My Pick: Auburn 28-24
Proj Pass: Auburn 195.9 / Arkansas 287.9
Proj Rush: Auburn 252.5 / Arkansas 82.1

#10 South Carolina @ Kentucky
My initial though was to go with Kentucky here, mainly because this just seems like the perfect hangover game for a team like South Carolina, who is coming off what is probably the biggest home victory in school history after knocking off a #1 team. That said I have absolutely no faith in the Kentucky run defense. They have been scorched so far this season, giving up 176 yards and 5 touchdowns to Florida, 211 yards and 3 touchdowns to Ole Miss, and 311 yards and 4 touchdowns to Auburn. South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore should have a field day. 'Cock QB Stephen Garcia played the best game of his career last week, as it was mostly mistake free. If he can build on that, and again play a game with minimal mistakes then South Carolina should be able to move the ball with ease Saturday. Kentucky has many weapons on offense, though it looks doubtful that All-Conference RB Derrick Locke will play this weekend. They still have QB Mike Hartline, who is having a great season thus far, and WRs Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews. Both have All-Conf type ability. They will match up though with a secondary that played a great game despite the numbers against Alabama, causing many coverage sacks. I think Kentucky will be able to move the ball a bit through the air, but with Locke being hurt I expect for South Carolina to prepare for Hartline and Co. first and force Kentucky to win the game on the ground. Oh and South Carolina's rush defense held Bama RBs Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram to less than 50 yards.
My Pick: South Carolina 31-21
Proj Pass: S. Carolina 225.0 / Kentucky 245.8
Proj Rush: S. Carolina 199.0 / Kentucky 121.3

Mississippi St @ #22 Florida
The talent is there. The coaching is there, I think. So what is missing for Florida? I have to think leadership. And they need to find some in a hurry. People may not be talking about MSU too much but they have a solid defense, and very quietly went to Houston last weekend and destroyed the Cougars 47-24. Florida is reeling after two very tough losses. They were embarrassed publicly (6-31) in a game closer than the score @ Bama, and embarrassed physically (243-385) in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score vs. LSU. QB John Brantley has not played very well this season, and he is the main reason why teams are able to stop Florida's offense. Brantley does not attack down field, more often choosing to go to the short cross, or hit his backs out in the flats. That is allowing opposing teams to bring in their secondary, and help stop the run, while also being in position to stop the pass as well. MSU has a pretty good defense and have the ability to do the same things to Florida's offense that other teams have been able to do. That being said there are two main reasons as to why I think Florida still wins this game. One is that Florida's small and speedy backs are going to matched up with some unathletic LBs at MSU, and if Brantley will take some chances he has the ability to pick apart State's D by working the TE and RBs out in the open. And Secondly MSU has had some shoddy QB play so far this season, and Florida's secondary is not the team you want to struggle against. I think MSU keeps this game very close, scary close, maybe even taking the lead at some point. But a key mistake from whoever is playing QB for the Bulldogs will cost them the game.
My Pick: Florida 24-20
Proj Pass: Florida 215.6 / Miss St 139.5
Proj Rush: Florida 148.1 / Miss St 149.5

McNeese St @ LSU
Either LSU is going to destroy McNeese St or the Bengals are going to win on the final play of the game. Using a fake punt. And fumbling. Twice.
My Pick: LSU 42-3

Ole Miss @ #8 Alabama
This game poses some interesting questions, for instance how does a team that never loses react to a.....loss? I expect one of two things. This game is either going to be scary close for Alabama, or the tears of McElroy and his stolen Tebow speech are going to light a fire in a team that is already one of the best teams in the country and my beloved Rebels are going to be a David without God or the slingshot vs Goliath with an Uzi-like Bazooka. Speaking of the Mac, how is he going to respond after last weeks game? His numbers look great, but there were plenty of times where he did not get rid of the ball on 3rd downs, and it killed Alabama. I don't know if Alabama will be in too many of those situations on Saturday, as many of those sacks were coverage sacks. Ole Miss big weakness on defense this season has been their secondary. The front seven of Ole Miss has the ability to hold Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram to less than 150 combined yards for the 3rd game in a row, but if McElroy and Co. get to moving the ball through the air, then the running lanes will open up and Alabama will have a field day. On offense the Rebels present more problems than any other team in the SEC. They have speed backs that can run the ball outside, ala Jeff Scott, they have power backs to run the ball between the tackles, like Brandon Bolden, they have a mobile QB in Jeremiah Masoli, who is also pretty accurate (61%), while they have deep play threat in WR Markeith Summers, and a 6'8 WR in Melvin Harris. The big weakness for the Rebels thus far this season has been the O-Line, as they started 4 different combinations through 4 games before sticking with the same group in their past two games. They are starting two freshman and a sophomore, and I don't know that these guys are experienced enough to take on the talent up front that Bama will present. Florida and South Carolina were able to move the ball on Bama with short accurate passing, and Arkansas was able to move the ball by attacking downfield. If Masoli has a good game than Ole Miss has a chance to move the ball on this Tide defense. Vegas says that Alabama will win by 3 touchdowns, but historically this game is closer than many believe.
My Pick: Alabama 34-17
Proj Pass: Alabama 248.8 / Ole Miss 143.3
Proj Rush: Alabama 165.1 / Ole Miss 127.4
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Off to work, hope yall enjoy and let me know what yall think

BATTEMAN