NCAA Week 1 Recap & Week 1 NFL Picks

Hey there guys,

This is something new that I will be doing this season, where I will show you my results from week 1, Straight up, against the spread, and vs the O/U. I am also going to be keeping track of how close my picks are to each teams actual final score. I will call this my Close Score %. Is that I get a win if I come within 7 of the projected score I had for each team. So if I call Team A 21-20, and Team B wins 47-21 I will still go 1/2 for that game because I did get Team A's score correct.

For fun I am also going to be keeping my pick records against some key prognosticators, and calculations in the media, including: AccuScore, Phil Steele, ESPN Conference Bloggers, ESPN Gameday Crew (including Celebrity Guests), the other writers for Where The Land Sharks Are (when they actually turn their picks in), and of course Kige Ramsey. This is more or less for fun, but also so my readers can see how I do against other knowledge people. And computer.

I am also going to be providing a few interesting notes on some of the games this past weekend that caught my attention, and that I think other hard core football fans would enjoy as well.

And at least for this Week I am going to publish my NFL Picks. This is the first season that I am doing NFL picks, so they may not be pretty ha ha.

WEEK 1 Pick Results

Straight Up: 71-7 (91.0%)
2010-11 Season Total: 71-7 (91.0%)

vs. the Spread: 19-18-2 (51.4%)
2010-11 Season Total: 19-18-2 (51.4%)

vs. Over/Under: 22-15-2 (59.5%)
2010-11 Season Total: 22-15-2 (59.5%)

Close Score%: 85/156 (54.5%)
2010-11 Season Total: 85-156 (54.5%)

If you'll notice I lost 7 games straight up this past week. I take a lot of pride in the fact that I am pretty accurate at picking the winner of games, and every week I am going to show you the games that I lose, and I will describe the game as a truly bad pick, or a close loss. A close loss is any game that the team I pick loses by 6 or less. Anyway here are my losses from Week 1

My Pick: Ole Miss 49-7
Final: Jacksonville State 49-48
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Ole Miss was up 31-10 at halftime, and lead the entire game before Jax State tied it up with 0:18 seconds to go in the game. In 2OT the Rebels were up 48-41, when Jax State scored on 4th down, and then as QB Coty Blanchard was being hit he dumped the ball off the RB who fell in for the win.

My Pick: Connecticut 28-24
Final: Michigan 30-10
Ruling: Truly Bad Pick
Why? I overrated UCONNs ability to run the football, and underrated how much Michigan would be improved this season.

My Pick: Kansas 42-14
Final: North Dakota St 6-3
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Kansas held the Bison to 168 yards of total offense and 10 first downs, but 3 crucial turnovers, and 2 missed field goals cost the Jayhawks the game.

My Pick: Navy 28-24
Final: Maryland 17-14
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Navy whooped Maryland all over the field, outgaining the Terrapins 485-272, and out FD'ing them 26-11. But the Midshipmen could not convert in the RZ as they would fumble twice inside the 5, be stopped on downs right before the end of the 2nd half, and then again on the final plays of the game, and would also miss a field goal. 7 trips inside the Terrapins' 20, and only 14 points.

My Pick: Virginia Tech 27-24
Final: Boise St 33-30
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Virginia Tech had one of the worst first quarters of a football game that I have ever seen, thanks to a fumble on the 2nd snap of the game, a blocked punt, and several more special teams mistakes the Hokies were down 17-0 after the 1st quarter. After that though they calmed down and would outscore the Broncos 30-16! from there on out, and they were up 30-26 with just over a minute to go. Take away that first quarter and Hokies win this football game.

My Pick: UAB 38-20
Final: Florida Atlantic 32-31
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? UAB outgained (424-347) and out FD'd the Owls (17-12) and were up 31-26 midway through the 4th quarter before fiving up a TD with 2:20 left to go in the game. Down 32-31 they drove into Owl territory and had the game winning field goal set up but it was blocked.

My Pick: Tulsa 35-27
Final: East Carolina 51-49
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Tulsa outgained the Pirates 579-538 in this back and forth game that saw 12 lead changes. Tulsa took the lead 49-45 with 1:22 left to go in the game, and it looked as if they were going to win as East Carolina had the ball on Tulsa's 33 but with only 0:02 seconds left to go in the game. The Pirates though hit a Hail Mary as time ran out to win.

As you can see in 6 of my 7 losses the team I chose lost by 3 points or less! If you combine all 7 of my losses together my teams lost by a total of 33 points (4.7 per game), and if you combine the close losses the total is 13 points! (2.2 per game). I could have easily gone 77-1 this week had a few more balls bounced my way. Oh well, I will work harder for next week and try to improve my record.

Week 1 Pick Records

(In parentheses, I will have my record, in the games that they forecasted, so that you can compare)

AccuScore (Top 25 FBS only): 14-1, 93.3% (14-1, 93.3%; 0 games back)
Phil Steele (Most Games): 72-5 93.5% (70-7, 90.9%; 2 games back)
Chris Low (SEC): 10-2 83.3% (11-1 91.7%; 1 game ahead)
Adam Rittenberg (Big Ten): 11-0 100% (10-1 90.9%; 1 game back)
Adam Ubben (Big XII): 11-1 91.7% (11-1 91.7%; 0 games back)
Heather Dinich (ACC): 10-2 83.3% (10-2 83.3%; 0 games back)
Ted Miller (Pac-10): 7-3 70% (10-0 100%; 3 games ahead)
Brian Bennett (Big East): 7-2 77.8% (8-1 88.9%; 1 game ahead)
Andrea Adelson (Non-BCS): 6-6 50% (9-3 75%; 3 games ahead)
Lee Corso: 4-4 50% (6-2 75%; 2 games ahead)
Kirk Herbstreit: 2-5 28.6% (6-1 85.7%; 4 games ahead)
Celebrity Guest (W1 Big Boi): 7-1 87.8% (6-2 75%; 1 game back)
GenPatton (WTLSA): 3-5 37.5% (6-2 75%; 3 games ahead)
Kige Ramsey (Top 25 all): 19-3 86.4% (21-1 95.5%; 2 games ahead)

Week 1 Interesting Game Notes

• Despite outscoring the Golden Eagles 41-13, South Carolina would only outgain them 449-406, giving up 337yds through the air (66.7%). The Gamecocks would also only go 4-10 (40%) on 3rd Downs.
  
• Auburn's Offense put up 52 points and 608 yards of total offense against Arkansas St, but they only out FD'd the Red Wolves 23-22. The Tigers defense was a problem in '09 and this season they opened up giving up 366yds of total offense, including 323 passing yards (67.3% 1td).
  
• Arkansas's Offense looked good against Tennessee Tech, scoring 44 points and racking up 519 yards of total offense, but they did turn the ball over 3 times.
  
• Despite playing against a team that lost roughly 10 starters to suspension prior to the game, LSU had to stop North Carolina on downs in the Redzone to hold on for a 30-24 win. Playing against what essentially was North Carolina's backup defense the LSU offense was only able to muster 313 yards of total offense, and only picked up 11 first downs, turning the ball over 5 tims. The Tar Heels were also missing several key position players on offense, but they were still able to rack up 436 yards of total offense, 412 through the air (60.9% 3td), and 20 first downs.
• For the first time in Ole Miss' history they lost to an FCS team, 49-48 to Jacksonville St. Despite the loss the Rebels outgained the Gamecocks 479-355 and out FD'd them 23-17. Ole Miss did have 3 turnovers in the game, including one that resulted in a Jax St TD.
  
• Florida's offense struggled in their first game without Tim Tebow, as they were only able to muster 212 yards of total offense, 72 of which came from a Jeffrey Demps TD Run. The Gators were out FD'd by Miami (OH) 16-12, and only went 3-12 (25%) on 3rd Downs. If Miami (OH) hadn't turned the ball over 4 times, 1 of which resulted in a Gator TD, and had 9 penalties, several in the RZ that forced FGs who knows what the outcome of this game would have been.
  
• In Robbie Caldwell's first game as the new HC at Vandy, the Commodores would lose to Northwestern 23-21, but they would outgain the wildcats 432-365. The 'Dores would rush for 192 yards and much maligned QB Larry Smith would complete 19 for 33 (57.5%) for 240yds and 1td (1int). A big reason the 'Dores lost was that they did convert a single XP, missing one kick, and failing on 2 2XP tries. K Ryan Fowler would also miss a FG as well.
  
• Despite beating Towson 49-10, Indiana was outgained 392-360, and they would also convert only 2-10 3rd Downs (20%).
  
• While Iowa's offense looked pretty solid against Eastern Illinois, racking up 37 points 435 yards and 24 first downs, they did go -2 in the turnover battle.
  
• It took awhile for the Penn St offense to wake up against Youngstown St, as they were down 7-3 after the 1st Quarter and were only up at halftime 16-7. They would also only pick up 371 yards of total offense.
  
• Despite beating Western Michigan 38-14, and outgaining them 483-323, Michigan St was only able to out FD the Broncos 19-16
• Oklahoma's Defense looked very questionable this past weekend as they 24 points, 421 yards, and 21 first downs to Utah State. They would give up 341 yards and 2 TD through the air, though they did pick off 3 passes.
  
• The Longhorns offense struggled a little bit this past weekend, in their first start without Colt McCoy, scoring only 34 points and gaining only 369 yards of total offense vs. Rice. Garrett Gilbert only hit 14 of 23 (60.9%) for 172 yards, and while he showed flashes of solid talent, he also showed some flashes of a first year starter, and the Longhorns offense was only able to muster 3 TDs, none of which came through the air.
  
• Although they did beat rival Colorado St 24-3, Colorado's offense wasn't very good, picking up only 307 yards of total offense and 18 first downs.
  
• Although Boston College beat Weber St 38-20, it wasn't pretty as they only outgained Weber St 411-381, and Weber St out FD'd the Eagles 24-17. Both teams turned the ball over 3 times each, though one of Weber St's turnovers resulted in a BC TD.
• While Clemson was outgained (462-423) and out FD'd (25-15) by North Texas in the Tigers 35-10 win, you have to keep in mind that the Tigers offense only had possession for 18:08 seconds. In those 18 minutes they racked up 35 points, 423 yards, and 15 first downs.
  
• In Lane Kiffen's first game as HC of the USC, the Trojans offense looked good at Hawaii, racking up 49 points, 524 yards (278pass/246rush), and 25 first downs. Their defense though was not as good as they allowed 36 points, 588 yards (459pass), and 31 first downs.
  
• Oregon's offense looked unstoppable vs. New Mexico this past weekend scoring 8td (56 of the 72 points) and rolling up 720 yards of total offense (351pass/369rush), and picking up 35 first downs. The defense was equally as impressive as they pitched a shutout, allowing only 107 yards (82pass/25rush) and allowing only 8 first downs.
  
• TCU's 30-21 win over Oregon St was not as close as the score indicated as TCU turned the ball over twice, but outgained the Beavers 453-255 and out FD'd them 28-13.
  
• Utah also dominated a lot more then the final showed as they outgained Pitt 405-266 but turned the ball over 3 times as they went on to win 27-24 in OT
• West Virginia struggled a little bit Saturday as they were only up on Coastal Carolina 10-0 at Halftime and turned the ball over 3 times.
  
• In what was expected to be an offensive shootout the defenses shined bright in Fresno State's upset win over Cincinnati, as neither neither offense put up 300 or more yards (Fresno - 296; Cinci - 234)

Week 1 NFL Picks

Ok guys, I am not going to hide the fact that I am a college guy. That being said the NFL is a close #2. So this season I am going to attempt to pick the NFL games each and every week, using a calculation similar to what I used for my '09 NCAA picks. Anyway way guys here are my week 1 NFL Picks

Thursday Sept. 9th

Vikings @ Saints -4.5 (51)
My Pick: Saints 28-21

Sunday Sept. 12th

Browns @ Buccaneers -3 (36.5)
My Pick: Buccaneers 24-20

Dolphins -3 (37.5) @ Bills
My Pick: Bills 21-17 <----- UPSET

Bengals @ Patriots -5.5 (43)
My Pick: Patriots 27-17
Colts -3 (46.5) @ Texans
My Pick: Colts 24-23

Broncos @ Jaguars -2.5 (40)
My Pick: Jaguars 21-17

Falcons -2.5 (38) @ Steelers
My Pick: Steelers 24-17 <----- UPSET

Raiders @ Titans -6.5 (41)
My Pick: Titans 27-17

Panthers @ Giants -7 (41)
My Pick: Giants 24-14

Lions @ Bears -7 (42.5)
My Pick: Bears 28-17

Cardinals -4 (38.5) @ Rams
My Pick: Cardinals 21-20
Packers -1 (44) @ Eagles
My Pick: Packers 27-20

49ers -2.5 (38) @ Seahawks
My Pick: Seahawks 20-17 <----- UPSET

Cowboys -3.5 (41.5) @ Redskins
My Pick: Cowboys 24-17

Monday Sept. 13th

Ravens @ Jets -3 (37)
My Pick: Jets 21-17

Chargers -5.5 (45) @ Chiefs
My Pick: Chargers 24-20

____________________________________________________________________

Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think. I am going to start plugging the numbers into my calculation for this weekends NCAA Games.

If you have any questions, comments or ideas, you can always comment below or email us at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

Don't forget to become a fan of WTLSA on Facebook, and to follow us on Twitter

Thank you for reading

BATTEMAN