NCAA Football Week 2 Recap

Hey there guys,

It was another great week of football, and this season seems to be the year of the FCS (formerly known as Div. I-AA). In week 1 they pulled of two wins over FBS opponents and this past weekend they picked up four more, none more notable than James Madison's 21-16 win over Virginia Tech. Things look to be shaping out to be a good season and I hope it keeps up this way.

Click below to find out how I did in Week 2!

My Week 2 Pick Results

As you can see below I am keeping my records of how I do straight up, against the spread, and against the over/under. I am also keeping what I call a Close Score %. For those who don't know what I mean by that, a close score is any pick I make that comes within 7 points of the what the teams actual final score is. If I picked team A to win 24-20, and team B won 31-24 I would still go 1/2 because I projected team A's score within 7. Below are my week 2 pick records, and my season totals.

Straight Up: 59-11 (84.3%)
2010-11 Season Total: 130-18 (87.8%)

vs. the Spread: 25-18-1 (58.1%)
2010-11 Season Total: 44-36-3 (55.0%)

vs. Over/Under: 14-28-2 (33.3%)
2010-11 Season Total: 36-43-4 (45.6%)

Close Score%: 62/140 (44.3%)
2010-11 Season Total: 147/296 (49.9%)

Alright guys, this week I lost 11 games. For those who did not read the Week 1 Recap, what I am about to do is show you all of the games that I lost, and just how close I am coming to picking the winner. I take great pride in my accuracy in picking games straight up, and over the last 2 seasons I have picked 77% ('08) and 76% ('09) right. This season I want to do even better. But because I am so confident in my picks I will show you the games I missed and I will grade them either a truly bad pick, or a close loss. For a game to be a close loss the team I chose must have lost by 6 points or less. Anyway here are my 11 losses from Week 2:

My Pick: Miss St 31-27
Final: Auburn 17-14
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Poor Miss St QB play. Combined the two MSU QBs went 16 for 34 (47.1%) for 129 yards (3.7 ypa) and 1 int. With less than a minute to go, MSU WR Leon Berry, who had already dropped 3 passes through the 1st three quarters, dropped a 4th, this time inside the Auburn 15 yard line, that would have given MSU a chance to get the win, or at least force OT.

My Pick: Minnesota 38-14
Final: South Dakota 41-38
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? If Minnesota plays the entire game like they played the 2nd half, they win this game. In the final 2 quarters Minnesota would outscore the lower Dakota 28-27, and outgain them 277-232. Minnesota would go 0-2 on 4th down conversions, turn the ball over twice, and missed a FG, which was the difference in the football game.

My Pick: Notre Dame 28-27
Final: Michigan 28-24
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? The Fighting Irish outgained the Wolverines 535-532 and out FD'd them 23-22. Take away the 3 turnovers, one of which indirectly lead to a Michigan TD, and you give the Notre Dame QBs a little more accuracy on their errant passes to end the first half and the game, and this one goes the way of Touchdown Jesus.

My Pick: Georgia Tech 28-17
Final: Kansas 28-25
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Georgia Tech outgains the Jayhawks 407-320 and lead 17-14 at halftime but in the 2nd half they turned the ball over on downs 3 times, and fumbled away another opportunity, all of which were either at midfield, or in Kansas Territory.

My Pick: Virginia Tech 42-10
Final: James Madison 21-16
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Virginia Tech outgained JM 362-235, out FD'd them 23-14, and had the lead (16-14) heading into the 4th quarter, but would turn the ball over 3 times, including 2 of the final 3 times, and was stopped on downs on the other. They also would have had one final shot had they not run into the JM kicker late in the game, allowing the Dukes to run the clock and get the upset.

My Pick: North Texas 35-34
Final: Rice 32-31
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? North Texas outgained Rice 420-351, and out FD'd them 17-13. They had the lead 31-26 in the 4th, but another turnover would do them in as it indirectly lead to a Rice TD. That was 1 one of 3 North Texas turnovers in the game. Down by 1 North Texas would be stopped on downs in Rice Territory just outside of FG range.

My Pick: Army 28-23
Final: Hawaii 31-28
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? I honestly cannot believe I lost this one. When this game started at 11 a.m. at Michie Stadium in New York, it was 7 a.m. Hawaii time. I though that Army would open up big while the Warriors were still waking up, and then the run the clock down and hold on. Instead it was Hawaii who opened up big, getting up 14-0 in the 1st quarter, outgaining Army 132-13. They would then open up the 2nd quarter with a 48 yard TD pass to be up 21-0. From that point on Army would outgain Hawaii 295-120, and would outscore them 28-10. Unfortunately for Army 3 of that 10 would come from a game winning 31yd FG with 7 seconds remaining. Army also missed FG during that time.

My Pick: Akron 31-14
Final: Gardner-Webb 38-37 OT
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Akron had a two TD lead, 31-17, with under a minute to go in the 3rd Quarter before 14 unanswered points sent the game into overtime. Akron had a chance to win it with just under 2 minutes to go in the game but missed a 36 yard field goal. In OT Akron got on the board first but then G-Webb blocked the xp, and scored and converted in their half of OT to win.

My Pick: Ohio 35-17
Final: Toledo 20-13
Ruling: Truly Bad Pick
Why? I never agreed with Nebraska when they fired Frank Solich after he compiled an astounding record of 58-19, which included a Fiesta Bowl win over Tennessee in '99, and trip to National Championship game in '01. Since he has been at Ohio, the Bobcats have played good football. But I gave the Bobcats offense too much credit, expecting them to do much, and they never lead after the first quarter of this game, and were atrocious all throughout the second half.

My Pick: Ball St 34-17
Final: Liberty 27-23
Ruling: Close Loss
Why? Simply put, a missed FG, 2 lost fumbles, and a blown lead in the 4th quarter. Special teams mistakes, turnovers, and complacency, also known as the recipe for an FCS upset.

My Pick: Arkansas St 28-27
Final: Louisiana 31-24
Ruling: Truly Bad Pick
Why? Over the last 4 seasons Arkansas St has played better in this series on the road, and I thought with Louisiana winning last season they would have the motivation to keep that streak up. Not to mention both teams went on the road to SEC teams the week before, Arkansas St went to Auburn, and Louisiana was at Georgia, and Arkansas St came away looking like the better team. I was wrong in this case. I could have very well made this a close loss, as although Louisiana was up 31-7 after 3 quarters, Arkansas St put up 17 unanswered points in the 4th, and had the ball with just over 2 minutes to go and a chance to tie the game, but threw an interception and Louisiana ended their hopes by running out the clock.

There you go, 11 losses, and only 2 bad picks. If you combine all of my losses together from week 2 they combine for 41 total points, that's 3.7 points per game! For the season I have 18 losses, and if you combine them all together it is 74 points that I have lost by, or 4.1 points per game! Basically what that says is that If I am wrong the team that I picked will be in the game the entire time! And of my 18 total losses this season, only 3 have been ruled bad picks!

Comparing Pick Records

For those who didn't read this past week's recap, I thought it would be fun this season to compare some of the picks of the bigger names out there to mine. I have compiled a list of worthy opponents, in AccuScore and TeamRankings.com, both are computer projections that are noted for their accuracy, and used on ESPN.com, I have Phil Steele, a picking pro, who has the most accurate college football magazine over the last 11 years, then I have the conference bloggers from ESPN, the Gameday crew (including the Celebrity Guests), Where the Land Sharks Are writers (whenever they actually turn in their picks), and the great Kige Ramsey.

AccuScore (Top 25 FBS only): 17-1 (16-2)
2010-11: 31-2 93.9% (30-3 90.9%; 3 games back)
TeamRanking.com (Top 25 FBS only): 16-2 (16-2)
2010-11: 30-3 90.9% (30-3 90.9%; 0 games back)
Phil Steele (Most/All Games): 58-12 (59-11)
2010-11: 130-17 88.4% (129-18 87.7%; 1 game back)
Chris Low (SEC): 8-1 (8-1)
2010-11: 18-3 85.7% (19-2 90.5%; 1 game ahead)
Adam Rittenberg (Big Ten): 9-1 (8-2)
2010-11: 20-1 95.2% (18-3 85.7%; 2 games back)
Adam Ubben (Big XII): 11-1 (11-1)
2010-11: 22-2 91.7% (22-2 91.7%; o games back)
Heather Dinich (ACC):6-4 (8-2)
2010-11: 16-6 72.7% (18-4 81.8%; 2 games ahead)
Ted Miller (Pac-10): 8-0 (8-0)
2010-11: 15-3 83.3% (18-0 100%; 3 games ahead)
Brian Bennett (Big East): 7-1 (7-1)
2010-11: 14-3 82.4% (15-2 88.2%; 1 game ahead)
Andrea Adelson (Non-BCS): 6-4 (7-3)
2010-11: 12-10 54.5% (16-6 72.7%; 4 games ahead)
Lee Corso (Gameday): 7-2 (8-1)
2010-11: 11-6 64.7% (14-3 82.4%; 3 games ahead)
Kirk Herbstreit (Gameday): 8-0 (7-1)
2010-11: 10-5 66.7% (13-2 86.7%; 3 games ahead)
Celebrity Guest (Gameday/W2 Bobby Bowden): 7-2 (8-1)
2010-11: 14-3 82.4% (14.3 82.4%; 0 games back)
GenPatton (WTLSA): 18-4 (19-3)
2010-11: 21-9 70% (25-5 83.3%; 4 games ahead)
Kige Ramsey (Top 25/Random): 25-10 (31-4)
2010-11: 44-13 77.2% (52-5 91.2%; 8 games ahead)

Week 2 Interesting Game Notes

• Florida would have another slow start in their 38-14 win over South Florida, as they were down 7-0 after the 1st quarter, and tied 7-7 at the half. Their offense would put up 3td and a FG and their defense would add a TD as they ran away with the game in the 2nd half. USF QB BJ Daniels would only complete 5 passes on 20 attempts, throwing for 84 yards and 4int (1td).
• The passing game wasn't very pretty in LSU's 27-3 win over Vanderbilt, as LSU starter Jordan Jefferson went 8-20 for 96 yards and 1 int, and Vandy starter Larry Smith went 8 for 15 for 70 yards.
  
• Arkansas struggled to start their game against UL-Monroe as they were only up at half time 3-0. They also continued to struggle with turnovers as they lost 3 again this week. While their 6-14 (42.8%) on 3rd downs is ok, their 1-4 (25%) on 4th downs was also noticeably bad considering they played a Sun Belt team.
• The Tennessee - Oregon game started out a lot differently than the final score indicated (48-13 Oregon). Tennessee jumped out to a 6-0 lead before lightning forced the game to stop for a while, and when the game restarted the Vols weren't the same, being outscored 48-7 from there on out.
  
• It was another great first another great first half for the Ole Miss Rebels as they were up 14-0 over Tulane at the end of the 1st, and 24-3 at the half. But to start the 2nd half the Rebels were outgained 0-156, and for the 2nd half they were outscored 10-3 and outgained 90-214. The Final tally was an Ole Miss win 27-13, but they only outgained the Green Wave 374-312, and were out FD'd 16-19.
• Even though the score was close in Wisconsin's 27-14 win over San Jose St, the numbers show a much bigger win, as the Badgers outgained the Spartans 403-307 and out FD'd them 22-13. They controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball rushing for 212 yards (4.6ypc) and holding the Spartans to 50 yards rushing (2.8ypc).
• Despite winning 30-17 over FAU, Michigan State only outgained the Owls 367-301, and were actually out FD'd 17-20. QB Kirk Cousins struggled at QB completing just 9 for 17 and an int, though he did throw for 142 yards (8.4ypa) and a td. They were also just 1-7 (14.3%) on 3rd downs. Defensively, despite holding the Owls to 1.3ypc on 34att (45yds) they still managed to give up 300+, and allowed the Owls to convert on 7 of 16 3rd downs (43.8%) and both of their 4th down attempts.
  
• In yet another close call with an FCS team, Purdue beat Western Illinois 31-21, though the Leathernecks ougained the Boilermakers 406-402, and they both put up 22 first downs. Despite the hype of Robert Marve, he has yet to impress, and even though he completed 23 of his 34 attempts (67.6%) he only threw for 171 yards (5.0 ypa) and an int (1td). The Boilermakers also went just 5 for 13 (38.5%) on 3rd downs.
  
• The Ohio St vs. Miami, FL game was not as close as the final score indicated. Ohio St won 36-24, but outgained the Hurricanes 414-352, but did only out FD them 21-19. The Hurricanes the ball over 4 times, all 4 were Jacory Harris interceptions, and they were only able to score 1 offensive TD, as 14 points came from returns (1 kick, 1 punt). In a game that had a lot of focus on both QBs neither impressed throwing the football as Miami QB Harris went 22-39 (56.4%) for 232yds (5.9 ypa) 1td, and 4int, and Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor went 12-27 (44.4%) for 233yds and a td. Pryor did rush for 113yds and a td though.
• Though Illinois defeated Southern Illinois 35-3, ougained them 407-230, and out FD'd them 19-14, it could have been much worse had the Fighting Illini not turned the ball over 3 times during the game.
• In game that Nebraska dominated from the start (they won 38-17) it was at first interesting to see that they were out FD'd 24-18 by Idaho. It doesn't look as good when you see that Idaho ran 77 plays, compared to the 59 of Nebraska. This was still a turnover heavy game (10 total) as Idaho turned the ball over 6 times, and Nebraska gave it back 4 times.
• Despite beating Colorado 52-7, California did not destroy them as much as the score indicates. The Golden Bears only outgained the Buffaloes 356-239 and out FD'd them 18-17. A big reason for the Buffaloes poor offensive showing was turnovers as they turned the ball over 5 times, 2 of those directly resulting in California touchdowns. The Bears offensively also only converted 4 of 11 (36.4%) 3rd down attempts and went 0 for 2 on 4th downs.
• Even though Troy kept it close, only losing to Oklahoma St 41-38, the game itself was not as close as the final score, as Oklahoma St outgained the Trojans 522-371, and out FD'd them 24-22. The problem, for both teams, was turning the ball over as Troy turned the ball over 4 times, and Oklahoma St turned the ball over 5 times. Troy also had a 100yd kick return for a touchdown right before the end of the 1st half that switched the momentum around.
• In yet another turnover heavy game the Texas A&M Aggies and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs combined to turn the ball over 8 times on Saturday, each having 4. I don't know how much they affected the outcome as Texas A&M outgained La Tech 565-269 and out FD'd them 27-17, on their way to a 48-16 victory.
• Kansas St may have won 48-24, but the game was a lot closer than the final score indicated, as the Wildcats only outgained Mizzou St 493-447, and were out FD'd 23-25. The Wildcats also struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 10 chances (30%).
  
• In another game that was closer then the final score indicated, the Texas Tech Red Raiders defeated the New Mexico Lobos 52-17, but they only outgained them 462-433 and only out FD'd them 24-23. New Mexico played a very sloppy game as they turned the ball over 3 times, were stopped on downs once, and had 16 penalties (145yds)!
• While there wasn't an overly large amount of turnovers (6 total) by Duke and Wake Forest, 1 turnover ended up being the difference in the 54-48 shootout win by Wake. Up 14-7 at the beginning of the 2nd quarter the Blue Devils had a botched exchange that was recovered by Wake and returned 18 yards for the tying TD. That was just one of 4 turnovers by Duke, 3 of which were Int's thrown by Blue Devil QB Sean Renfree.
  
• Boston College did not look good in Week 1, and they did not show much improvement in week 2, beating Kent St just 26-13. They were only up 3-0 at the end of the 1st, and up 6-3 at halftime. In fact if you take out the 3rd quarter, where BC outscores Kent St 14-3 (115-39), then the final score is BC 12-10. Kent St also helped out by turning the ball over 5 times, which made a big difference in the game.
• Even though Clemson beat Presbyterian 58-21, and outgained them 414-279, they only out FD'd the Blue Hose 19-17, and on 3rd downs Clemson went just 2 for 10 (20%). They also turned the ball over once, completed just 11 of their 20 pass attempts, and were stopped on downs.
  
• Maryland just destroyed Morgan St on the scoreboard, 62-3, and while the Terrapins defense did do a fantastic job, holding Morgan St to just 85 total yards, 9 first downs, and only allowing them to convert 2 of 14 (14.3%) 3rd downs attempts, their offense wasn't as pretty. They only gained 370 yards, and picked up 24 first downs. Their special teams and defense did most of the work, as Terrapin Punt Returner Logan returned 4 punts with a 32.0yd return average, and the defense forced 3 turnovers. The Terrapins also went just 5-13 (38.5%) on 3rd downs.
• Though NC State upset UCF (yup) 28-21, it was more like the Golden Knights lost the game then NC State winning it. UCF outgained the Wolfpack 308-239 and out FD'd them 16-15, but 5 turnovers, 1 of which directly resulted in a NC State TD, and a missed FG were the difference in game that should have gone the other way.
  
• For the 2nd straight week USC has won, this time beating Virginia 17-14, but they have also been outgained each time, this time losing the yardage battle 329-340. Virginia also out FD'd the Trojans 22-18. Neither of these teams looked overly impressive during the game as they both struggled on 3rd downs, with Virginia going 4-15 (26.7%) and USC going 5-15 (33.3%), and they were both heavily penalized, Virginia getting flagged 9 times for 101 yards and USC 13 times for 140 yards.
• Though Washington St did pull out their first win of the season, 23-22 over Montana St, they did not look good doing it. The Cougars were outgained 407-316, and out FD'd 24-17. At the end of the 3rd quarter they were down 22-7, scoring two TDs in the 4th and kicking the game winning FG with less than 3 minutes to go in the game. Montana St missed a FG and failed on a 2pt conversion in the 3rd, and both would end up being the difference in the game.
  
• Stanford, who was poor defensively last season, looks much improved so far in 2010. This past Saturday they shut out the UCLA Bruins, in Los Angeles, holding them to 233 total yards (81 pass / 152 rush), forcing 4 turnovers, and only allowing them to convert 1-9 (11.1%) 3rd downs, and stopping them on both of their 4th down attempts.
  
• While it was clear all throughout the game that West Virginia was the better team than Marshall, they did not show up until the 2nd half, down 14-6 at halftime. In the 2nd half the Mountaineers would outscore the Thundering Herd 18-7, and outgain them 309-135, as they tied the game up 21 a piece before winning in overtime.
• For the second consecutive week, Pittsburgh has looked sloppy, this time in a 38-16 win over New Hampshire. While Pitt did outgain the Wildcats 445-298, they only out FD'd them 21-20. Pittsburgh turned the ball over once, was stopped on downs once, racked up 7 penalties for 66 yards, and only converted 3 of their 10 (30%) 3rd down attempts.
• Rutgers may have beaten FIU 19-14, but they were not the better team this past Saturday, as they were outgained 172-371, and out FD'd 8-15. What lost FIU the game was 5 turnovers. Rutgers also went just 2 for 13 (15.4%) on 3rd down conversions in the game.
  

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Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think. I am going to start plugging the numbers into my calculation for this weekends NCAA Games.

If you have any questions, comments or ideas, you can always comment below or email us at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

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Thank you for reading

BATTEMAN