Hey there guys,
As I mentioned in last weeks picks I am still working nearly 40 hours a week, and this new calculation requires a little bit more time, so it takes a little bit longer to put the numbers in. That said, if there are games Tues - Fri I will put those picks up early. This Thursday there are two games including an SEC match up as #21 Auburn heads to Starkville to take on Mississippi St, and Central Michigan takes on Temple.
Without the luxury of much time I won't be able to do much writing for these as I have to race to finish the rest of my picks to get them up in time. So anyway here are my Thursday picks.
Thursday September 9th NCAA Picks
Central Michigan @ Temple
6 p.m.
ESPNU
Line: Temple -7.5 (48.5)
My Pick: Temple 28-21
#21 Auburn Tigers 1-0 (0-0) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs 1-0 (0-0)
6:30 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Auburn -2.5 (55)
Preview:
This past weekend Auburn beat Arkansas St 52-26 and Mississippi St beat Memphis 49-7. What bothered me about Auburn's win, was that they struggled stopping the pass, allowing 323 yards (67.4%; 1td 0int). Arkansas St starting QB R. Aplin threw for 278 yards. Auburn Miss St used two QBs against Memphis, and both Chris Relf, who is more mobile, and Tyler Russell, a pure pocket passer, each threw for over 75%, Relf throwing for 116 yards 1td and 1int, and Russell for 256 yards and 4td. I realize that it was against Memphis, but Russell is a much better passer than Arkansas St's Aplin. Auburn needs to improve their secondary play or it is going to be a rough night for them tomorrow. I expect for the Bulldogs to work the spread option with Relf, and for Russell to pick apart the Tiger Secondary when needed. The only reason why I don't think that Russell will explode on Auburn tomorrow night is because Auburn is bringing a lot more pressure this season and Russell has yet to see anything like that just yet. Cameron Newton looked pretty good in his debut against Arkansas St, but this Mississippi State defense figures to be much improved from a season ago and they did do pretty good against Memphis, holding them to 237 yards of total offense, but the most impressive part of the MSU D was that they held Memphis to just 2-15 on 3rd downs. Bulldog fans believe in HC Mullen, and with this being the big game on Thursday night, against a ranked SEC West Rival, on ESPN, I expect Davis Wade Stadium to be packed with 55,000 + cow bell crazed fans and for an excited team to pull off the upset.
My Pick:
Mississippi State 31 Auburn 27 <----- UPSET
Calculation Projected Passing Yards
Miss St - 167.6 / Auburn - 179.6
Projected Rushing Yards
Miss St - 215.1 / Auburn - 150.7
6 p.m.
ESPNU
Line: Temple -7.5 (48.5)
My Pick: Temple 28-21
#21 Auburn Tigers 1-0 (0-0) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs 1-0 (0-0)
6:30 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Auburn -2.5 (55)
Preview:
This past weekend Auburn beat Arkansas St 52-26 and Mississippi St beat Memphis 49-7. What bothered me about Auburn's win, was that they struggled stopping the pass, allowing 323 yards (67.4%; 1td 0int). Arkansas St starting QB R. Aplin threw for 278 yards. Auburn Miss St used two QBs against Memphis, and both Chris Relf, who is more mobile, and Tyler Russell, a pure pocket passer, each threw for over 75%, Relf throwing for 116 yards 1td and 1int, and Russell for 256 yards and 4td. I realize that it was against Memphis, but Russell is a much better passer than Arkansas St's Aplin. Auburn needs to improve their secondary play or it is going to be a rough night for them tomorrow. I expect for the Bulldogs to work the spread option with Relf, and for Russell to pick apart the Tiger Secondary when needed. The only reason why I don't think that Russell will explode on Auburn tomorrow night is because Auburn is bringing a lot more pressure this season and Russell has yet to see anything like that just yet. Cameron Newton looked pretty good in his debut against Arkansas St, but this Mississippi State defense figures to be much improved from a season ago and they did do pretty good against Memphis, holding them to 237 yards of total offense, but the most impressive part of the MSU D was that they held Memphis to just 2-15 on 3rd downs. Bulldog fans believe in HC Mullen, and with this being the big game on Thursday night, against a ranked SEC West Rival, on ESPN, I expect Davis Wade Stadium to be packed with 55,000 + cow bell crazed fans and for an excited team to pull off the upset.
My Pick:
Mississippi State 31 Auburn 27 <----- UPSET
Calculation Projected Passing Yards
Miss St - 167.6 / Auburn - 179.6
Projected Rushing Yards
Miss St - 215.1 / Auburn - 150.7
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Thank you for reading
BATTEMAN
i respectfully disagree. auburn's defense was playing about nine yards off the wide recievers. Roof made the players run a base defense in order to save up for mississippi state. same with the offense. we ran the ball alot more than we will against miss state. i think auburn still has some work to do, but miss state is still not good enough to beat us. 52-35 auburn
ReplyDeleteI understand your point. Most teams run a base defense early in the season against easier opponents to save up for the conference action. That being said, no other SEC defense, outside of Ole Miss' horrendous second half, and South Carolina's defense gave up more than 300 yards to a non BCS Opponent. And over 100 of the yards that South Carolina allowed came in the last 15 minutes, aka garbage time, against Southern Miss. The majority of the 366 that Arkansas St put up against Auburn came with the starters in. And Arkansas St lost their starting QB and all 3 starting WRs from a season ago.
ReplyDeleteYou allowed the 3rd most yards (only South Carolina and LSU's defenses allowed more) of any SEC team in week 1. Base defense or not, you can't ignore that.
It should still be a good game, and while my main calculation calls for Auburn 28-26, but Miss St played very good at home in Mullen's first season, nearly upsetting Georgia Tech, LSU, and Florida, and upsetting Ole Miss. This is the biggest home game they have had under Mullen, and in Chizik's first season Auburn lost road games by an average of 11 points per game.
Should be fun to watch though. The SEC always is
Another thing you didn't mention is auburn's turnover bug. They can't lay the ball on the ground against an sec team and still expect to be in good shape. However 9 times out of 10 fumbles are flukes (ie. Bad exchange, perfect hit on the ball, etc) so if they can get that under control and don't beat themselves they should put up lucrative numbers again. With that being said auburn loves shooting themselves in the foot whether it be with turnovers or penalties or what have you so I expect Dan to have his team chomping at every opportunity they are given. I like your pick..but put some more pouts on the board Batte. It's gonna be a basketball game.
ReplyDeleteBoth of these teams have heavy mixtures of run in their offense, including both starting QBs, and I expect them to each control the clock a little bit. Both offenses should have great games, but both defenses should still be improved. Like picking State when my calculation says Auburn, the lower than expected score (which still picks the Over as far as vegas is concerned) is also a gut feeling
ReplyDelete