2010 Week 1 NCAA Football Picks

Hey there guys,

Its finally here! College football starts tomorrow with 18 games, including Marshall @ #2 Ohio St, Minnesota @ Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss @ South Carolina, Florida Atlantic @ UAB, Northern Illinois @ Iowa St, #15 Pittsburgh @ Utah, and #14 USC @ Hawaii.

I pick every game played by an FBS school throughout the season, and I have over the past two seasons, and I am looking to build off my 77% win percentage in '08, and 76% in '09. I am breaking in a new and improved calculation this season, that not only projects the score but the yards as well. Before the season even begins though I am going to let you know that I am still working a good amount of hours this year, so this will probably be the earliest that I get my picks up.

ANYWAY without further adieu here are my 2010 Week 1 Picks!

WEEK 1 PICKS

*Lines are not current; they are the open*

Thursday Sept. 2nd

Presbyterian @ Wake Forest
5:30 p.m.
My Pick: Wake Forest 45-10

Southeast Missouri St @ Ball St
6 p.m.
My Pick: Ball St 37-13
Rhode Island @ Buffalo
6 p.m.
My Pick: Buffalo 38-10

Hampton @ Central Michigan
6 p.m.
My Pick: Central Mich 31-10

Murray St @ Kent St
6 p.m.
My Pick: Kent St 38-7
Marshall @ #2 Ohio St
6:30 p.m.
Line: Ohio State -28 1/2
My Pick: Ohio State 42-7

Florida A&M @ #13 Miami (FL)
6:30 p.m.
My Pick: Miami 42-7

Towson @ Indiana
6:30 p.m.
My Pick: Indiana 49-10

Norfolk St @ Rutgers
6:30 p.m.
My Pick: Rutgers 38-7
Minnesota @ Middle Tennessee
6:30 p.m.
ESPNU
Line: Middle Ten -4
My Pick: Minnesota 24-20 <--- UPSET
Why? At first I was leaning towards Middle Tenn in this game, but Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year QB Dwight Dasher was suspended indefinitely, therefore I expect an experienced Minnesota Offense, that returns 9 starters, including their all time leading passer Adam Weber. I look for a close win on the road.

Southern Miss @ South Carolina
6:30 p.m.
ESPN
Line: South Carolina -14
Preview:
This is a very interesting game, as this will be a test for the Gamecocks offense, that is filled with talent yet has under-achieved during HC Spurrier's years there. Much has been made about the new and improved work ethic of QB Steven Garcia, but he is going to have to prove that, and the experienced Golden Eagles Defense that returns 9 starters. It will be an even bigger test for Garcia since All-Conf TE Weslye Saunders has been suspended indefinitely. The Gamecocks have plenty of talented receivers including Alshon Jeffery, who I expect to to have an even bigger impact this season, and Jason Barnes, who I expect to actually MAKE an impact this season. Also look for very highly touted running back Marcus Lattimore to make his debut Thursday as well. They should not have much to worry about with the inexperienced Eagles Offense (returns 3 starters) but they will have to shut down 2nd tm C-USA DeAndre Brown, who is one of the nations best. I expect for the Gamecocks to show some improvement along the offensive side of the ball and to win this one with some ease.
My Pick:
South Carolina 34-17
Calculation's Projected Pass:
S. Carolina - 305.6 yards / Southern Miss - 124.2 yards
Projected Rush:
S. Carolina - 142.0 yards / Southern Miss - 91.0 yards

Florida Atlantic @ UAB
7 p.m.
Line: UAB -13
My Pick: UAB 38-20

Northern Illinois @ Iowa St
7 p.m.
Line: Iowas St -3.5
My Pick: Iowa St 24-20

Southeastern Louisiana @ Tulane
7 p.m.
My Pick: Tulane 35-21

#15 Pittsburgh @ Utah
7:30 p.m.
Versus
Line: Utah -3
My Pick: Utah 28-24

North Dakota @ Idaho
8 p.m.
My Pick: Idaho 35-10
Eastern Washington @ Nevada
8:05 p.m.
My Pick: Nevada 42-14

#14 USC @ Hawaii
10 p.m.
ESPN
Line: USC -21
My Pick: USC 28-20

Friday Sept. 3rd

Villanova @ Temple
4 p.m.
My Pick: Temple 45-10

Arizona @ Toledo
7 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Arizona -14.5
My Pick: Arizona 34-24

Saturday Sept. 4th

Miami (Oh) @ #4 Florida
11 a.m.
ESPN
Line: Florida -35
Preview:
Really this isn't going to be much of a game, as the Gators should run away with this game from the open, but this game still has some interesting points in that this will be the first major showing of all the new faces for the Florida Defense, and QB John Brantely makes his first start as the full time Gator QB. Miami (Oh) does return 19 starters and should make a push in the MAC, but in the swamp against Urban Meyer and one of the most talented teams in the country they are just trying to gain some meaningful experience against a talented team.
My Pick:
Florida 56-7
Projected Pass:
Florida 215.5 yards / Miami (Oh) 196.7 yards
Projected Rush:
Florida 210.9 yards / Miami (Oh) 83.9 yards

Youngstown St @ #19 Penn St
11 a.m.
My Pick: Penn St 45-3

Samford @ #20 Florida St
11 a.m.
My Pick: Florida St 41-10

Western Michigan @ Michigan St
11 a.m.
ESPN2
Line: Michigan St -21.5
My Pick: Michigan St 38-23

Eastern Illinois @ #9 Iowa
11:05 a.m.
My Pick: Iowa 38-2

Louisiana @ #23 Georgia
11:21 a.m.
Line: Georgia -28
Preview
This is another game in the SEC East that won't be much of a football game, but will provide an interesting look into some new aspects of the team. Georgia is starting new QB Aaron Murray, and is also breaking out their brand new 3-4 defense. Louisiana (former UL-Lafayette) went 6-6 last season including an upset of Kansas St (17-15) but playing between the hedges is going to be much more difficult, and while all conf CB Dwight Bentley might give UGA QB Murray a slight challenge but overall the Bulldogs should roll.
My Pick:
Georgia 45-14
Projected Pass
Georgia 336.5 yards / Louisiana 98.4 yards
Projected Rush
250.9 yards / Louisiana 53.3 yards

Illinois vs. Missouri
11:30 p.m.
Line: Missouri -13.5
My Pick: Illinois 35-21

South Carolina State @ #16 Georgia Tech
noon
My Pick: Georigia Tech 35-10
Weber St @ Boston College
noon
My Pick: Boston College 41-7

Colorado vs. Colorado St
1 p.m.
Line: Colorado -12.5
My Pick: Colorado 28-20

Northwestern St @ Air Force
1 p.m.
My Pick: Air Force 38-3

#5 Texas vs. Rice
2:30 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Texas -28.5
My Pick: Texas 42-17

New Mexico @ #11 Oregon
2:30 p.m.
Line: Oregon -34
My Pick: Oregon 42-10

Coastal Carolina # #25 West Virginia
2:30 p.m.
My Pick: West Virginia 42-7

Purdue @ Notre Dame
2:30 p.m.
NBC
Line: Notre Dame -11
My Pick: Notre Dame 31-27

Kentucky @ Louisville
2:30 p.m.
ABC
Line: Kentucky -3
Preview
This is one of the most interesting games of Week 1, as new Louisville HC Charlie Strong and new Kentucky HC Joker Phillips have faced each other before, as Joker has been the OC of the Wildcats and Strong was the DC at Florida. Joker has struggled against Strong throughout their career face offs, but Joker's Offenses have also struggled when they have traveled to Louisville. There is just so much going for Louisville outside of that, as they really don't have any other true rival, and with everyone predicting them to finish last or next to last in the Big East, they really don't have very much to lose. I am still going to take Kentucky here, because the big difference between each rookie Head Coach is that Joker has spent the last 7 seasons with the Wildcats, including two as recruiting coordinator, so he knows his team very well, and has handled some HC duties over the past couple of seasons, while Strong is still getting to know his team, and really has not done much outside of defensive coordinator before, not to mention Louisville has nowhere near the talent that Strong had while he was at Florida.
My Pick:
Kentucky 24-23
Projected Pass
Kentucky 214.0 yards / Louisville 195.9 yards
Projected Rush
Kentucky 210.5 yards / Louisville 143.3 yards

Connecticut @ Michigan
2:30 p.m.
ABC
Line: Michigan -3
My Pick: UCONN 28-27 <--- UPSET
Why? Michigan has had all kinds of off season distractions, and now Rich Rod is feeling the heavy pressure from the Wolverine faithful. There is not much light being shown towards the Huskies, but they return 8 starters on each side of the ball including 1,000yd rusher Jordan Todman. Scott Lutrus is one of the most underrated LBs in all of the country as well. Michigan still hasn't named a QB just yet, and I just don't think they are going to come out focused and ready.

Jacksonville St @ Ole Miss
2:30 p.m.
My Pick: Ole Miss 42-7

North Texas @ Clemson
2:30 p.m.
ESPNU
Line: Clemson -23
My Pick: Clemson 38-14

UCLA @ Kansas St
2:30 p.m.
ABC
Line: UCLA -2
My Pick: Kansas St 27-21 <--- UPSET
Why? Simply put the Bruins lose an amazing DT in Brian Price, and the Wildcats at Kansas St are a fantastic running team, and they bring back Big XII offensive newcomer of the year in RB Daniel Thomas. I also like Bill Snyder, and haven't come away very impressed with Neuheisel in his first couple of season in UCLA.

UC Davis @ California
3 p.m.
My Pick: California 42-10

Western Carolina @ NC State
5 p.m.
My Pick: NC State 42-10

Richmond @ Virginia
5 p.m.
My Pick: Virginia 35-10

Syracuse @ Akron
5 p.m.
Line: Syracuse -8
My Pick: Syracuse 27-17

South Dakota @ UCF
5 p.m.
My Pick: UCF 38-7

UT Martin @ Tennessee
5 p.m.
My Pick: Tennessee 37-10

Sacramento St @ Stanford
5:30 p.m.
My Pick: Stanford 45-7

San Jose St @ #1 Alabama
6 p.m.
Line: Alabama -39
Preview
This is not going to be pretty. Mike McIntyre is the Spartans new head coach, and he doesn't have much to work with. He has had to flip players around to different positions, and is changing schemes on each side of the ball. He should consider himself lucky though, he gets to face this defense that returns only 2 starters, at it's most inexperienced, and he gets to face that Bama O that will be without mark Ingram. This is going to be a great chance for "backup" RB Trent Richardson to show what he can do as the feature back for the Tide, and despite the loss of Ingram this group is so deep, and so powerful that I expect them to absolutely dominate this game.
My Pick: Alabama 56-3
Projected Pass
Alabama 291.7 yards / San Jose St 150.9 yards
Projected Rush
Alabama 366.1 yards / San Jose St 60.5 yards

Utah St @ #7 Oklahoma
6 p.m.
Line: Oklahoma -31.5
My Pick: Oklahoma 48-17

Western Kentucky @ #8 Nebraska
6 p.m.
Line: Nebraska -35.5
My Pick: Nebraska 38-3

Tennessee Tech @ #17 Arkansas
6 p.m.
My Pick: Arkansas 56-10

Arkansas St @ #22 Auburn
6 p.m.
Line: Auburn -30.5
Preview
Yet again, another SEC game that should be a pushover, and again, its a new face at an important position that still makes this game interesting, as Cam Newton, who has received a large amount of hype this off season, will make his debut for the orange and blue. Arkansas St is a solid team in the Sun Belt, but they should not provide too much trouble for the Tigers. This also allows the Tigers to get many of their young receivers a chance to get some experience, and for very highly touted RB Michael Dyer should get some playing time as well.
My Pick: Auburn 45-17
Projected Pass
Auburn 313.6 yards / Arkansas St 116.4 yards
Projected Rush
Auburn 233.7 yards / Arkansas St 94.1 yards

Elon @ Duke
6 p.m.
My Pick: Duke 37-13

Wofford @ Ohio
6 p.m.
My Pick: Ohio 35-7
Washington St @ Oklahoma St
6 p.m.
Line: Oklahoma St -14.5
My Pick: Oklahoma St 31-17
Sam Houston St @ Baylor
6 p.m.
My pick: Baylor 49-17

Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M
6 p.m.
My Pick: Texas A&M 56-10

Washington @ BYU
6 p.m.
Line: BYU -3
My Pick: BYU 31-24

Memphis @ Mississippi St
6 p.m.
ESPNU
Line: Miss St -21
Preview
This game is going to be interesting, not to see what new players are going to be taking over at key positions for the Bulldogs, but after finishing the '09 season the right way, and with all of the expectations they have this season, it is going to be interesting to see how this team performs in their opener. Memphis was pretty bad this past season and now they have a new HC in former LSU RB coach Larry Porter. Look for the rushing offense of the 'Dogs to run all over Memphis in this one.
My Pick: Miss State 38-14
Projected Pass
Miss St 257.8 yards / Memphis 137.7 yards
Projected rush
Miss St 267.4 yards / Memphis 79.8 yards

Army @ Eastern Michigan
6 p.m.
Line: Army -9 1/2
My Pick: Army 31-20

North Dakota St @ Kansas
6 p.m.
My Pick: Kansas 42-14

Bowling Green @ Troy
6 p.m.
Line: Troy -14
My Pick: Troy 38-21

Louisiana Tech vs. Grambling State
6 p.m.
My Pick: Louisiana Tech 31-21

Stony Brook @ South Florida
6:05 p.m.
My Pick: South Florida 41-10

Northwestern @ Vanderbilt
6:30 p.m.
Line: Northwestern -3.5
Preview
This is another very interesting game as Northwestern has a pretty solid offense, despite having to replace Mike Kafka, and Vanderbilt has had one of the most underrated defenses in the country over the past few seasons, as they usually have to deal with being on the field for an inordinate amount of time, with a poor offense. I was actually leaning towards Vandy at the beginning of the summer but I am going to take Northwestern here, since former HC Bobby Johnson surprisingly retired, leaving OL coach Robbie Caldwell to take over. This is a team that did not need any distractions, or anything to NOT go their way, and with a new head coach, I just don't see this team responding very well.
My Pick:
Northwestern 31-21
Projected Pass
Northwestern 269.0 yards / Vanderbilt 213.6 yards
Projected Rush
Northwestern 178.5 yards / Vanderbilt 146.3 yards

#24 Oregon St vs. #6 TCU
6:45 p.m.
ESPN
Line: TCU -13
Preview
I feel like this game is going to get more hype than it deserves. Oregon St is a solid team that is very well coached under HC Mike Riley, but the Beavers are not the very best during the first month of the season (10-10 in sept over last 5 seasons), they are breaking in a new QB in Ryan Katz, and now they have to travel to Texas for a "neutral" game against one of the best coached defenses in the country. I am a big fan of TCU QB Andy Dalton, and this Horned Frog offense is much more experienced offense with 9 returning starters, and they should control this game. The key for the Beavers is how they are going to get the Rodgers brothers involved against this fast, attacking defense. I think the Horned Frogs have a legitimate shot at making the National Championship game, and it starts tonight.
My Pick:
TCU 28-17
Projected Pass
TCU 211.8 yards / Oregon St 235.4 yards
Projected Rush
TCU 186.7 yards / Oregon St 89.4 yards

#21 LSU vs. #18 North Carolina
7 p.m.
ABC
Line: EVEN
Preview
I can't really preview this game when North Carolina may have to leave 16 players, a majority of them very key starters on both sides of the ball, back in Chapel Hill. If they travel than I expect for UNC to shut down an unsure LSU offense, but if not they will lose simply on lack of experience. Until the news is released though this pick is subject to change.
My Pick (for now) North Carolina 21-17
Projected Pass
North Carolina 188.4 yards / LSU 134.9 yards
Projected Rush
North Carolina 136.3 yards / LSU 93.7 yards

Nicholls State @ San Diego St
7 p.m.
My Pick: San Diego St 45-14

Texas St @ Houston
7 p.m.
My Pick: Houston 45-14

Southern Utah @ Wyoming
8 p.m.
My Pick: Wyoming 38-7

Arkansas - Pine Bluff @ UTEP
8:05 p.m.
My Pick: UTEP 41-17

Portland St @ Arizona St
9 p.m.
My Pick: Arizona St 42-3

Cincinnati @ Fresno St
9 p.m.
ESPN2
Line: Cincinnati -1
My Pick: Fresno St 28-24 <--- UPSET
Simply put I'm not sold on Zach Colloras, a mobile QB, who had his best games while backing up Tony Pike, a pure pocket QB, and I don't know exactly how good Collaros is going to be when the other team can gameplan towards him. I am also not sold on new Bearcats head coach Butch Jones, who won games at Central Michigan but he also had QB Dan LeFevour his entire time there. The Bearcats defense returns only 5 starters, and while more experienced than the '09 version, they are still not very experienced, and they are going to have to face an offense that lost its backfield, but does bring back its QB and all 5 starters up front. Fresno St always gets up for BCS teams, as they have gone 5-10 over the last 5 seasons, but the average difference in the games for the Bulldogs is only -3.4, including last seasons 20-28 loss at Cincinnati. I expect for an experienced Bulldogs team to feed off their home crowd and pull off an early season upset.

#12 Wisconsin @ UNLV
10 p.m.
Versus
Line: Wisconsin -20.5
My Pick: Wisconsin 45-24

Sunday Sept. 5th

Tulsa @ East Carolina
1 p.m.
ESPN 2
Line: Tulsa -7
My Pick: Tulsa 35-27

SMU @ Texas Tech
2:30 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Texas Tech -13
My Pick: Texas Tech 41-20

Monday Sept. 6th

Navy vs. Maryland
3 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Navy -7
My Pick: Navy 28-24

*GAME OF THE WEEK*

#3 Boise St vs. #10 Virginia Tech
7 p.m.
ESPN
Line: Boise St -2.5
Preview
This has been the most talked about game of the opening week of the season since the end of the '09 season. Boise returns 20 starters (10 on each side of the ball), including QB Kellen Moore, who is considered by many to be a legitimate heisman candidate, and DE Ryan Winterswyck (9 sks '09). Virginia Tech only returns 12 starters, but they do return one of the best backfields in the country in Ryan Williams (1655yds 21td '09) and Darren Evans (1265yds '08). Boise State has made a name for themselves for upsetting BCS teams over the past few seasons, including 2 wins over Oregon the past two seasons, and the infamous win over Oklahoma in the '06 Fiesta Bowl. This however will be the farthest east that the Broncos have travelled to play a game, and unlike their other upsets they won't be able to sneak up on anyone this season. Virginia Tech may not be as experienced but they have one of the better defensive coordinators in the country in Bud Foster, and despite their general lack of experience they should still have a solid unit that. Offensively I just don't see the Broncos being able to stop Williams and Evans, and Hokie QB Tyrod Taylor has been improving every season, and I expect him to have a solid game as well. This is essentially a home game for the Hokies as well and Boise is the favorite. Only twice over the past five seasons have the Hokies been underdogs at home, when they defeated #10 Clemson 24-7 and #9 Miami 31-7.
My Pick:
Virginia Tech 27-24 <----- UPSET
Projected Pass
Virginia Tech 202.0 yards / Boise st 271.8 yards
Projected Rush
Virginia Tech 214.6 yards / Boise St 131.6 yards

____________________________________________________________________

Alright guys, I was planning to write a lot more about each of the games but due to a lack of time this is what I could do. That being said if you have any questions on any of the games I will give you my full analysis including my calculations projected numbers. You can request that game either through the comments, or by emailing me at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think

Thanks for reading

Batteman