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| Can Ryan Mallett lead the Razorbacks to a victory in their first ever BCS Bowl Game? |
I apologize for the lack of quality posts over the last couple of days, but then again It's my blog so get over it.
Ha, but seriously, working has put my a little bit behind, so I'm playing catch up.
Here is my preview for tonights SUGAR BOWL.
SUGAR BOWL
#6 Ohio State vs. #8 Arkansas
#18 Buckeye Offense vs. #27 Razorback Defense
The Buckeyes have a plethora of offensive talent, and at least according to the media, it all starts with QB Terrelle Pryor. His numbers as a passer are solid (212.6 yds/gm 65.8% +14 TD/Int ratio), but if Pryor where Pryor can really get you is with his feet (53.3 yds/gm 4td). Willie Robinson received a lot of negative press over the last two seasons as his defenses have been torched (especially in the air, he is also the secondary coach), but this season the Razorbacks have improved by leaps and bounds. This secondary has actually been the better part of the defense this season, so if they can keep Pryor in the pocket they should be able to slow down the Buckeye's passing attack. While Pryor is a game-changer with his feet, and he has put up some decent numbers through the air, he really has not had a "great" season that everyone was expecting. The biggest reason for that is that he still throws the ball up for grabs, and at times will attempt to scramble from the pocket when there is no need to scramble, getting himself in worse situations. His worst games this season have come against some of the tougher defenses that he has faced (Miami, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois). By the way don't laugh at Illinois, their defense may not do much right but they shut down Pryor, and Robert Griffin III, two very similar QBs. I'm just saying. Forcing Pryor to try to escape too early is not so much putting the pressure on him, because if you blitz too much it will burn you, but it's more about movement before the snap. If he is under the illusion of pressure he runs as far away as he can get. Ohio State's WRs are decent but I don't know if they are good enough to really break a game open themselves, against a decent secondary led by S Tramain Thomas. I actually think that if Arkansas can contain Pryor and force him to beat them with his arm than the Razorback secondary may have a pretty big advantage here (You think that's surprising to read, it's even harder to write.)
Where the Buckeye's have a real advantage is in the run game. They boast a big, physical offensive line, including all conference members LT Mike Adams, RG Justin Boren, and C Mike Brewster. At RB they have Dan Herron who has quietly done a very good job running the football this season. Arkansas' run defense is going to have to play it's best game of the season if they want to stop the Buckeye's from running the football. DE Jake Bequette is solid on the edge, and LB's Jerrico Nelson and Jerry Franklin are good linebackers but the rest of the group is going to be at a disadvantage in tonight's game. If Ohio State coach Jim Tressell knows whats good for him he is going to pound the football tonight.
#10 Arkansas Offense vs. #1 Ohio State Defense
I will ask my reader's to keep in mind that my power rankings listed above are purely numbers based. Because I don't believe that Ohio State has the best defense (if anything just look at how Big Ten defense's have performed thus far in the bowl season). But also, this is going to be by far the best QB that Ohio State will have faced this season. Ryan Mallett has an absolute cannon for an arm, and when he is on his game, he is also deadly accurate. He has started putting touch on the ball this season which has really helped him with his short passing game. He biggest problem is that he can be known to make the occassional bad decision or two (see fourth quarter vs. Alabama), but all-in-all he is a very good QB. Ohio State can force him to make a lot of quick decisions. Teams have been able to get to Arkansas at times this season, the Razorbacks allow 2 sacks per game, so I expect the Buckeyes to bring the pressure against Mallett. To me the most interesting match up of the game is the Buckeye's secondary vs. the Razorbacks receivers. Buckeye DBs Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrance are some of the best in the game, while the Razorbacks bring Greg Childs, Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Cobi Hamilton, and TE D.J. Williams to the table. Are there enough Buckeye athletes to cover them all?
One of the biggest reasons that the Razorbacks have improved this season (aside from having a defense) has been the emergence of a dangerous run game. That run game is led by Kniles Davis, the most productive back of Bobby Petrino's tenure as the Pig's head man. The 220lb Davis, along with 250lb Broderick Green and 230lb Ronnie Wingo, are powerful, right at you downhill type runner and they have become the perfect complement to the spread passing game. While Mallett and Co. have widened the defenses with their spread passing attack, Davis and Co. have gutted the middle of the defenses, pounding them with their physical style of play, and wearing out the LBs and DL. It's actually pretty smart. Ohio State, while pretty athletic, is not as big as they would like to be up front, as the combined starters come in at an average of 270lb. Arkansas may get a good bit of their offense from the run game this night.
Conclusion
While Ohio State has talent all over the place, and Tressell is a better coach than Petrino, I have to wonder how they have handled all of the distractions this offseason, with five players getting suspended for NEXT season, Pryor nearly getting in trouble for driving a car from a dealership, and then there is also the rumor that Tressell would retire (proven false) and all of the talk about Urban Meyer coming to Ohio State SHOULD Tressell retire. All in all it has been a big mess. Throw in the fact that the Big Ten has been annhilated so far this offseason by the SEC (SEC 138 points Big Ten 45 points in their three combined meetings), and Ohio State may come into this game lacking some confidence. I like Arkansas to mix in the run game well, and slow down the Buckeye's just enough to take home the win.
My Pick: Arkansas 31 Ohio State 24 (<-- UPSET)
Proj Pass: Arkansas 267.8 yards (7.2 ypa) / Ohio State 211.2 yards (7.0 ypa)
Proj Rush: Arkansas 134.1 yards (3.8 ypa) / Ohio State 204.9 yards (4.5 ypa)
Fans Pick: Arkansas 72%
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Alright guys, just to put your minds at ease, I am working on my National Championship game preview way ahead of time, so that I will not be late posting it. Ha. Take that work ethic.
Anyway if you guys have any questions, you know how to contact me, comment below, get on the facebook fan page, or just email me at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com
Thanks again for reading!
BATTEMAN
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