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| Can Cam Newton break my cover curse (cover athlete 2-20 this season) and lead the Tigers to a title? |
Hey there guys,
It's that time. Time for the National Championship game.
We have the Pac-10 Champion Oregon Ducks, and the #1 Auburn Tigers, champions of the SEC.
Read my preview inside.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
#1 Auburn Tigers vs. #2 Oregon Ducks
#1 Auburn Offense v.s #37 Oregon Defense
Cam Newton. There is a lot more to Auburn's offense, but you simply cannot start talking about the Tigers without first mentioning Cam Newton. Hate him all you want, call him a cheater, ask his Dad how much for a transfer. But you have to admit he is an unbelievable football player. He possess a rare combination size (6'6 250) speed (4.4), shiftiness, and strength. He can run around, over, or away from you. Sometimes all three in one run. But now that I have that out of the way, let me talk about what really makes Auburn's run game work. Their offensive line. They are led by 4 senior starters, including All-SEC C Ryan Pugh, RG Byron Isom, and LT Lee Ziemba. This Oreogon defensive line has plenty of talent, including All Pac-10 DE Kenny Rowe, and DT Brandon Bair. But they are vastly undersized. The Ducks front four average 259 across the line. Auburn's starting o-line weighs in at an average of 306lbs. While this is not a power running offense, these are strong and experienced lineman that have played in a spread type of offense for three consecutive seasons. Duck OLB Casey Matthews (little brother of Packers LB), is a terrific pass rusher off the edge, and will often line up at DE. He is however a more complete linebacker than his All-Pro brother. How he plays the read option could be the real key in this game. Another key match up is going to be how well the Oregon linebackers match up with the Auburn RBs. They really play a 4-3, with a roving LB, Eddie Pleasant, but the other OLBs Spencer Paysinger and Josh Kaddu are both 230+lbs. How well can they handle Auburn RBs Mario Fanin, Ontario McCaleb, and Michael Dyer? They are going the have the tough challenge of trying to keep an eye on Cam Newton, and handle the other Tiger RBs as well.
While Cam Newton is a bigger threat on the ground than through the air, he still is not too shabby as a QB. He has a deep threat in WR Darvin Adams, and he really uses TE Phillip Lutzenkirchen effectively on play action and bootlegs. How effective Newton is will be HUGE in this game. He is going up against one of the most active secondaries in the country, as they directly cause 56% of their opponents incompletions. CB Cliff Harris has filled in magnificently since he became a starter earlier this season. Oregon however has not faced a QB quite like Newton this season. And I'm not talking about all of his physical attributes. I'm referring to a successful spread option QB that can throw. And no, they don't see that in practice every day.
#5 Oregon Offense vs. #25 Auburn Defense
Now the big question in this match up is not how Auburn's defense fairs against this spread attack. It's how well they can keep up. This fast paced offense gets plays off in a hurry, usually between 14-18 seconds in between plays, and one of Chip Kelly's goals is to try and wear out his opponents' front four as quickly as possible. Auburn has a very aggressive defense under DC Ted Roof, but the Ducks will screen, and screen, and draw, and option, and screen, and option the hell out of you. How Roof adjusts to this will be very interesting. The big key of the game though is obviously going to be how well conditioned Auburn's defense is. If they can get some stops, and their offense take some long drives it will be just what the doctor ordered. LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are two very good backs, but Auburn has a very athletic group of linebackers with All-SEC LB Josh Bynes, and former S Darren Bates. Auburn's weakness this season has not been in the rush defense. The media likes to make a lot of Auburn's defense being lower than where you would normally see an SEC defense, but trust me the run defense is not to blame. They allow just 112 yds/gm and 3.4 yds/att. Whether or not they can keep up with the Ducks offense will be the key in the game.
Just like Auburn, the Ducks are a run first team. And also like Auburn they have a big play receiver, Jeff Maehl, and effectively use their TE David Paulson. Their are two strong differences though. Oregon's QB Darren Thomas is also not as good of a passer as Newton. Thomas throws a lot of screens, yet his completion percentage is only 60%. That's good but again. A lot of screens. He doesn't make a lot of mistakes with only 7 interceptions, but I have to wonder if what he will do under pressure. If forced into passing downs, where Auburn can dial up a blitz and let Nick Fairley and Antoine Coleman loose it could be very interesting to see how well Thomas holds up. Of course he is playing a secondary that has been picked on all season long. Auburn plays two deep safeties, very deep safeties, and they mostly give up plays around the middle of the field. They give up a LOT of 10+ yards passes, but not very many 20+ yard passes. Also, Roof's defenses get tons better as the game goes along, so if this game is close in the end it will be very interesting to see how Thomas fairs.
Conclusion
The media has been pointing out that Heisman winners have not fared well in BCS National Championship games, that Auburn has had to deal with a lot of distractions, but let's be honest. Five weeks have passed. I am not a big believer in Gene Chizik, but he has surrounded himself with solid coordinators, and Muschamp, even with a small amount of time has enough weapons to put points up on the board. I expect both of these defenses to play better than most expect (remember Florida vs. Oklahoma '08?), but when it comes down to it, it's all going to depend on how well Oregon plays Cam Newton. I like the Tigers.
My Pick: Auburn 34 Oregon 23
Proj Pass: Auburn 228.8 yards (7.4 ypa) / Oregon 260.9 yards (7.3 ypa)
Proj Rush: Auburn 250.1 yards (4.4 ypa) / Oregon 234.7 yards (4.5 ypa)
Fans Pick: Auburn 77%
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Alright guys I want to thank all of my readers for following me, and putting up with all of my late work for another season. I am 12 days away from my return to Oxford, Ms, and while I am going to be focused on school I am going to be working on several things with the NBA, NHL, and some SEC Basketball and Baseball.
For all of those that participated in the Bowl Pick 'em, pay attention as I am also going to be doing an NCAA tournament bracket for the blog as well. So stay tuned.
Again guys, thanks for reading.
BATTEMAN
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