2010 Big Ten Preview

Hey there guys

It's only 9 more days till the start of the 2010 college football season!!

I am down to two conferences left, and today I will be going over the Big Ten, and Notre Dame.

This past season was filled with talk about expansion that was all started by the Big Ten. They made the first big move of the offseason grabbing Nebraska from the Big XII, and spent of the rest of the season with rumors of grabbing 4 more teams, though all they really want is Notre Dame. I really like the Nebraska pick up as I feel that a conference that is full of defense is about to get a wake up call with Bo Pelini's black shirt defenses.

This past season the Big Ten started rebuilding their image in the Bowl season after a couple of BCS wins with Ohio State beating Pac-10 champs Oregon and Iowa beating ACC Champs Georgia Tech. This season they have 4 teams ranked in both the coaches and ap polls with 2 in the top ten with Ohio State at #2 and Iowa at #9/#10. Wisconsin is #12 in both polls and Penn St is #19/#14. They will again look to rebuild their image and I have a strong feeling that this season one of the spots in the BCS National Championship game is going to be a Big Ten team.

As always guys you know I love to here what you think so just let me know.

Big Ten

(cp - coaches poll/ ap - associated press)

1. #9(ap)/#10(cp) Iowa Hawkeyes
'09 Final Record: 11-2 (6-2)

Offense (Pro Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #10 Scoring Off - 21.8 points per game
• #10 Rushing Off - 97.3 yards per game
• #10 First Downs - 16.4 first downs per game
• #10 3rd Downs - 33.9% conversion
• #10 Turnovers - 19

Returning: 6 Starters

• Passing: QB Ricky Stanzi (171-304 56.3% 2417yds 17td 15int), QB James Vandenberg (42-87 48.3% 470yds 2td 5int)
• Rushing: RB Adam Robinson (181att 834yds 4.6avg 5td), RB Brandon Wegher (162att 698yds 4.0avg 8td)
• Receiving: WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (45rec 750yds 16.7avg 2td), WR Marvin McNutt (34rec 674yds 19.8avg 8td)

The Hawkeyes have produced some very interesting offenses this past decade but none more so then the '09 version. I can't remember how many games that Iowa's offense would struggle through the first 3 quarters and then turn it on in the 4th. This season they return 6 starters on that offense including the reason for most of the struggles as well as the comebacks in HM B10 QB Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi struggled through the first 3 quarters but he completed 67% of his passes in the 4th quarter. I look for him to be more consistant this season despite the fact that Iowa only returns two starters on the offensive line, losing two all-conf OTs this past season. One of the new starters figures to be highly touted sophomore C James Ferentz (HC So). While this offensive line is much less experienced than in years past and is probably not as talented as the the '09 version, HC Kirk Ferentz is a former OL Coach in the NFL, and he always produces a solid unit. This group may not be as good as this past years group but with the return of some solid skill players, may help to produce better numbers. Of those skill players they return the highly dangerous 2nd tm All-Conf WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and WR Marvin McNutt who was the 2nd leading receiver on the team this past season, despite being a primary backup. Also keep an eye out for highly touted sophomore Keenan Davis (4rec 55yds 13.8avg 1td) as I expect him to have a much bigger role in the offense this season. One of the things that Stanzi did really well was use the TE really well and last season staring TE Tony Moeaki was a big part of the offense (30rec 387yds 12.9avg 4ttd). This season he departs but I am expecting very highly touted true frosh C.J. Fiederowicz (top five TE recruit out of HS) to make an immediate impact at TE this fall. In the backfield they return their top two rushers from this past season in HM B10 RB Adam Robinson along with very highly touted sophomore RB Brandon Wegher (combined 1475yds 14td), and they also get back RB Jewel Hampton, who was set to be the starter this past year before getting injured and missing the season. Despite the lack of experience up front I expect this offense to improve their numbers with more stable play out of Stanzi and their best rushing attack in two years.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #3 Scoring Def - 16.1 points per game
• #1 Passing Def - 159.0 yards per game
• #2 Opp first Downs - 16.0 first downs per game
• #3 Takeaways - 19

Returning: 8 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Jermiah Hunter (89tkl 2.5tfl 4pbu 1int), SS Tyler Sash (85tkl 5.5tfl 6pbu 6int)
• Sacks: DE Adrian Clayborn (70tkl 20tfl 11.5sk), DE Broderick Binns (63tkl 10tfl 6sk 9pbu)
• Interceptions: SS Tyler Sash, FS Brett Greenwood (55tkl 7pbu 3int)

Defensive Coordinator Norm Parker is entering his 12th season in Iowa City, but I don't think he has fielded better two better defenses in his career than the ones he produced in '08 (13.0ppg 291ypg) and '09 (15.4ppg 277ypg). This season they look to be even better as they return 8 Starters making this Parker's most experienced defense since '07. Up front they return all 4 starters in 1st tm All-Conf DE Adrian Clayborn, HM B10 DE Broderick Binns, and two HM B10 DTs in Christian Ballard (54tkl 9tfl 5.5sk) and Karl Klug (65tkl 14tfl 4sk 5pbu). This line is starting 3 seniors (2 multi year starters) and a junior, making this one of the most experienced D-Lines in the country. The rushing numbers actually got worse this past season as they allowed 124ypg 3.5ypc (94ypg 3.1ypc '08) but I expect the Hawkeyes to have their best rush defense since '04 and for them to have their highest sack total in a decade. This is one of the best defensive lines in the country. At LB they do lose a couple of All-Conf performers in Pat Angerer and E.J. Edds, but they return starting OLB Jeremiah Hunter (#2 tackler '09) and very highly touted OLB Tyler Nielsen (7tkl; top ten LB recruit out of HS). With the loss of their best 2 backers I expect them to drop a little bit this season. In the secondary they return 3 starters from last years outstanding unit (153ypg 49.6%), but their one loss is 1st tm All-Conf CB Amari Spievey. They do however return the best S duo in the conf with 1st tm All-Conf SS Tyler Sash and 2nd tm All-Conf FS Brett Greenwood. CB Shaun Prater (41tkl 8pbu 2int) had a pretty solid season starting opposite Spievey last season and I expect him to step and have an even better season. No matter who starts at the open CB spot this is the best secondary in the conference and one of the best in the country.

Conclusion

The Hawkeyes have a pretty manageable out of conference schedule as they take on Eastern Illinois, Iowa St, @ Arizona, and Ball St. The one snag in this group is @ Arizona. Arizona figures to be one of the better teams in the Pac-10 and played Iowa close in last years 27-17 Iowa home win. I still expect Iowa to come away 4-0. In conference they get a very favorable schedule as they face Penn St, @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St, @ Indiana, @ Northwestern, Ohio St, and @ Minnesota. They get all of their tough games at home this season, and their one tough road game, @ Michigan, they get a bye the week before. The Big Ten will be decided on Nov. 20 when Ohio St comes to town and Iowa has a legitimate chance to play for a National Title this season.

1. #2(ap)/#2(cp) Ohio State Buckeyes
'09 Final Record: 11-2 (7-1)

Offense (Multiple Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #2 Scoring Off - 27.8 points per game
• #11 Passing Off - 134.1 yards per game
• #1 Rushing Off - 199.5 yards per game
• #2 Turnovers - 12

Returning: 8 Starters

• Passing: QB Terrelle Pryor (167-295 56.6% 2094yds 18td 11int), QB Joe Bausermann (6-19 31.6% 124yds)
• Rushing: QB Terrelle Pryor (162att 779yds 4.8avg 7td), RB Brandon Saine (145att 739yds 5.1avg 4td)
• Receiving: WR DeVier Posey (60rec 828yds 13.8avg 8td), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (36att 570yds 15.8avg 6td)

These past two seasons the Buckeye's have had their worst two seasons of the last 5 years. This season the Buckeye's return 8 Starters from a season ago including QB Terrelle Pryor (former top five QB recruit out of HS). Pryor, who has great speed, chose Ohio St because he wanted to prove that he could stand in the Pocket and be successful as a QB, has shown flashes of being a great passer over his two seasons as the Buckeyes QB. I'm not quite yet ready to jump on the Pryor for Heisman bandwagon just yet, the Buckeyes have had their two worst seasons throwing the ball in the two seasons that Pryor has been the QB with last season's 55.1% was the worst for the Buckeyes since '04 (53.5%). He does return 4 along the offensive line including 1st tm All-Conf LG Justin Boren, and HM B10 RG Bryant Browning. Theis line is filled with very highly touted starters including new starter at LT Mike Adams. This should be one of the conferences best O-Lines. At WR they return 2nd Tm All-Conf WR Devier Posey and #2 receiver Dane Sanzenbacher. They lost #3 receiver Duron Carter to grades but this WR group is so talented I doubt they will miss him too much. They didn't utilize the TE too much this past season but I expect for very highly touted sophomore Jake Stoneburner (2rec 30yds 15.0avg; former top five TE recruit out of HS) to have a bigger impact for the offense this season. While the passing numbers have gone down the two years that Pryor has been the starter at QB the rushing numbers have gone up, which could also be contributed to Pryor (leading rusher '09) but they have a solid group of backs in 2nd tm All-Conf Brandon Saine and highly touted Jr. Dan Herron (153att 600yds 3.9avg 7td) and the two combined for 1339yds and 11td, and this season they add in very highly touted rFr Jamal Berry (former top ten RB recruit out of HS), and this should be one of the best RB units in the conference. I expect the offense to improve this season, with an even better running game, and a slightly better passing offense.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #1 Scoring Def - 12.6 points per game
• #2 Rushing Def - 80.5 yards per game
• #3 Opp First Downs - 16.1 first downs per game
• #1 Opp 3rd Downs - 30.6% conversion
• #1 Takeaways - 24

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Ross Homan (108tkl 5tfl 2sk 5pbu 5int), MLB Brian Rolle (95tkl 7tfl 1int)
• Sacks: DE Cameron Heyward (46tkl 10tfl 6.5sk), DE Nathan Williams (26tkl 8tfl 3.5sk)
• Interceptions: OLB Ross Homan, two tied at 2

Over the last 7 seasons the Buckeyes have had some of the best defenses in the country with their worst season being back in '04 when they allowed 18.3 ppg 332ypg. After that they have had Co-Defensive Coordinators in Jim Heacock and Luke Fickell, and each defense since then has been much better giving up only 15ppg or less, with their highest ypg allowed being 294ypg in '08. This season they return 6 starters on defense and only 1 on the defensive line, losing an All-Conf DE and DT. 2nd tm All-Conf DE Cameron Heyward is one of the Big Ten's best and DE Nathan Williams had a pretty solid season as a back up. I am also looking for highly touted sophomore DT John Simon (15tkl 4tfl 1.5sk). Even with the talent across the line, the lack of experience is makes me believe that they will not match last season's incredible numbers (91ypg 2.9ypc). They return 2 starters at LB this season including 1st tm All-Conf OLB Ross Homan and 2nd tm All-Conf MLB Brian Rolle. Like anywhere else on this defense they whoever takes over the open spot is going to be a highly touted recruit, and I expect for Etienne Sabino (former top ten LB recruit out of HS) to be the starter. With Homan and Rolle back this is one of the conference's best LB corps and is better than last years group. In the secondary they return 3 starters from last seasons solid pass defense (172ypg 54.2%) including two 3rd tm All-Conf CBs in Chimdi Chekwa (43tkl 7pbu 1int) and Devon Torrence (35tkl 1.5tfl 2pbu 2int) and I expect both to elevate their game even more this season. At S they return starting FS Jermale Hines (57tkl 3.5tfl 1sk 2int), and whoever takes over a the SS position is going to have some big shoes to fill, replacing 3rd tm AA Kurt Coleman. This is still one of the conference's best secondaries, and even with the inexperience up front this should still be one of the nation's best defenses.

3. #12(ap)/#12(cp) Wisconsin Badgers
'09 Final Record: 10-3 (5-3)

Offense (Pro Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #1 Scoring Off - 29.5 points per game
• #9 Passing Off - 197.4 yards per game
• #2 Rushing Off - 197.6 yards per game
• #2 First Downs - 21.3 first downs per game
• #3 3rd Downs - 45.0%

Returning: 10 Starters

• Passing: QB Scott Tolzien (211-328 64.3% 2705yds 16td 11int), QB Curt Phillips (7-12 58.3% 65yds 1int)
• Rushing: RB John Clay (287att 1517yds 5.3avg 18td), RB Montee Ball (98att 391yds 4.0avg 4td)
• Receiving: WR Nick Toon (54rec 805yds 14.9avg 4td), WR Isaac Anderson (30rec 480yds 16.0avg 2td)

Since hiring current Offensive Coordinator Paul Chryst in '06 Wisconsin has had 3 of their top 4 highest QB completion % of the last 10 seasons (58.9% '06, 57.3% '07, 64.1% '09) and 3 of their top 5 scoring offenses (29.2ppg '06 29.5ppg '07 31.8 '09) and ypg (409ypg '07, 399ypg '08, 417ypg '09). This season they return 10 starters from, what I consider to be the best Wisconsin offense of their modern era (31.8ppg 417ypg), and they are the most experienced group in the last 10 seasons. One of the big reasons is that they return the B10 Off POY in RB John Clay. They also return all 5 offensive lineman including 1st tm B10 members C John Moffit, and LT Gabe Carimi. They also get Clay's two primary backups back in RBs Montee Ball and Zach Brown (3 combined 2187yds 25td). With a talented and experienced offensive line, RB Clay, and his backups, this has the potential of not just being the best rushing offense in the B10 buy maybe the best Badger rushing offense in the last 20 seasons. Another big reason for the Badgers success came at the fantastic game managing of QB Scott Tolzien (64% completion), who in his first year starting lead the Badgers to 10 wins (most since 12 in '06), and had the Badgers air attack (213ypg 64.1%) since '05 (228ypg 59.3%). This season he gets back his leading receiver from a year ago in HM B10 WR Nick Toon, plus big play receiver Isaac Anderson (16.0ypc). The Badgers often play a Two-TE set, and while they lose an all-conf TE in Garrett Graham (624yds 7td), they do return the other starting TE in Lance Kendricks (29rec 356yds 12.3avg 3td). No matter who replaces Graham at the other TE spot I am expecting former HT WR recruit Kendricks to easily fill Grahams roll and maybe even top his numbers. With the top two WRs back, talented TE Kendrick, an experienced OL and the best Badger QB in the last decade, plus a solid rushing attack to help take the pressure off, I expect the Badgers to have a their bast passing game in a long time. This could be one of the best Badger Offenses in their entire history, and looks to be one of the top offenses in the country this season.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #10 Passing Def - 241.8 yards per game
• #1 Rushing Def - 72.0 yards per game
• #1 Opp First Downs - 15.3 first downs per game
• #3 Opp 3rd Downs - 33.6% conversion

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: MLB Culmer St. Jean (63tkl 4tfl 1.5sk 4pbu 1int), CB Devin Smith (55tkl 9pbu 2int)
• Sacks: OLB Chris Borland (54tkl 10.5tfl 5sk 1int), DE J.J. Watt (44tkl 15.5tfl 4.5sk 5pbu)
• Interceptions: CB Devin Smith, CB Niles Brinkley 38tkl 4pbu 2int)

Since becoming the full time defensive coordinator in '08 Dave Doeren's defenses have continuously improved going from 23.2ppg 357ypg in '07 to 26.5ppg 329ypg in '08, and 21.8ppg 306ypg in '09. This year the return 6 starters making them more experienced than last years outstanding defense. Up front they only return 1 DE, but they lose all-conf DE O'Brien Schofield. They do get back DE J.J. Watt who had a great season with 15.5tfl, and he spent most of it out with Swine Flu. If he can stay healthy I expect him to have a monster season. Replacing Schofield should be DE Louis Nzegwu (10tkl 3.5sk) who played pretty well as a backup this past season. On the interior of the line it is going to be hard replacing the experience they had there but they do replace it with some talent and athleticism in the form of highly touted rFr DT Jordan Kobout and former TE DT Patrick Butrym (24tkl 2.5tfl 1int). With the inexperience in the middle of the line I do not expect this group to match last years outstanding rush D (88ypg 2.9ypc) or their pass rush (37sacks) though they may still have a pretty solid pass rush. At LB they return 2 starters including B10 Frosh POY OLB Chris Borland, MLB Culmer St Jean (returning leading tackler) and OLB Mike Taylor (46tkl 6.5tfl 1sk 1int), who was leading the team in tackles before he was injured. This is a very solid group of LBs and should be one of the better units in the conference. In the secondary they Badgers return 3 starters including 2nd tm All-Conf SS Jay Valai (51tkl 3.5tfl 4pbu 1int). They also return both CBs in Devin Smith and Niles Brinkley. Jr. Aaron Henry (18tkl 4pbu) looks to take over at the vacant FS spot and I expect this group to improve upon last years numbers (217ypg 55.8%). This should be yet another solid defense for the Badgers and DC Doeren.

Conclusion

Wisconsin has a very manageable out of conference schedule with games @ UNLV, San Jose St, Arizona St, and Austin Peay. Bobby Hauck's air it out offense at UNLV and Mike McIntyre's new defense at San Jose St might give the Badgers a couple of seconds of trouble but they should easily dispose of both of them. Arizona St has a solid defense and that should be a pretty interesting game but I really doubt that the Sun Devils can handle the cold weather up in Wisconsin. I fully expect the Badgers to go 4-0 in their OOC. In conference is where their season will be made. They go @ Michigan St, Minnesota, Ohio St, @ Iowa, @ Purdue, Indiana, @ Michigan, and finally Northwestern at home. Whether or not they will contend for the Big Ten title all depends on whether or not they can take care of business on the road. Trips to Michigan St, Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan are all must wins if they want a legitimate shot at the Rose Bowl. I think they slip up a long the way but still have an outstanding season, and I think they'll match last years 10 wins.

3. #19(ap)/#14(cp) Penn State Nittany Lions
'09 Final Record: 11-2 (6-2)

Offense (Multiple Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #3 Scoring Off - 26.8 points per game
• #1 3rd Downs - 47.4% conversion
• #1 Turnovers - 10

Returning: 8 Starters

• Passing: QB Kevin Newsome (8-11 72.7% 66yds)
• Rushing: RB Evan Royster (205att 1169yds 5.7avg 6td), RB Stephfon Green (71att 319yds 4.5avg 3td)
• Receiving: WR Derek Moye (48rec 785yds 16.4avg 6td), WR Graham Zug (46rec 600yds 13.0avg 7td)

In '03 PennSt had one of its worst offenses (19.4ppg 313ypg) in HC Joe's Paterno 44 seasons. So in '04 he hired former Florida Head Coach Galen Hall to be Offensive Coordinator, and in his first season he lead the Nittany Lions to an even worse offense (17.7ppg 311ypg). But Joe Pa stuck with and he has been greatly rewarded as in 4 of his next 5 seasons Hall's offenses averaged 28.8ppg or more and 400+ypg. This season the Nittany Lions return 8 starters making them a lot more experienced than '09. One of the big reasons that Penn St has been so hot offensively over the last couple of seasons has been the outstanding play of 3rd all time leading passer QB Daryll Clark (5742yds '06-'09). This season though Clark is gone, but there is an extreme amount of talent ready to replace him with very highly touted QB Kevin Newsome (former top ten QB recruit out of HS), who spent the last two seasons studying under Clark, and two very highly touted true frosh in Robert Bolden (very mobile, former top five QB recruit out of HS), and Paul Jones (practiced with team in spring; former top ten QB recruit out of HS). Whoever takes over is goin to have some talent to work with as they return the top two leading receivers from a season ago in HM B10 WR Derek Moye, and the teams leader in TD rec's in WR Graham Zug, plus I expect a couple of highly touted underclassmen to start making an impact this season in rFr Shawn Kersey and soph Justin Brown. They do lose two NFL Draft Choice TE's, but replace them with former highly touted WR Andrew Szczerba, highly touted sophomore TE Mark Wedderburn, and highly touted true frosh Kevin Haplea. This is a very talented group but with the loss of Clark I am expecting a drop in the passing game after two fine seasons (243ypg 58.5% '08; 237ypg 60.7% '09). One thing that should definitely help take the pressure off of the QBs is the return of 1st Tm All-Conf RB Evan Royster, and his main back up RB Stephfon Green. The two combined for 1488yds 9td this past season and with an inexperienced QB should get more carries. They also return 4 offensive lineman, though they do lose all-conf LT Dennis Landolt. However they do return 1st tm All-Conf RG Stefen Wisniewski, and the rest of the starters were all highly touted recruits at one point. This is a very talented and experienced OL. With increased carries, RBs Royster and Green, and an experienced and talented OL I expect for the Nittany Lions to have their best rushing numbers since '08 (206ypg 5.2ypc).

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #2 Scoring Def - 14.9 points per game
• #3 Passing Def - 194.1 yards per game
• #3 Rushing Def - 116.1 yards per game
• #2 Opp 3rd Downs - 33.1% conversion

Returning: 5 Starters

• Tackles: FS Drew Astorino (62tkl 4pbu 1int), SS Nick Sukay (41tkl 11pbu 2int)
• Sacks: DE Jack Crawford (31tkl 14.5tfl 5.5sk), DE Eric Lattimore (21tkl 6tfl 3.5sk)
• Interceptions: SS Nick Sukay, three tied at 1

Defensive Coordinator Tom Bradley has been running the defense for the last 10 seasons but is on an absolutely fantastic run of 6 consecutive seasons of his defenses giving up less than 20.0 points per game. During that time frame only two of those defenses have given up more than 300 yards per game (305ypg '05; 308ypg '07). This season the defenses returns 5 starters but that makes them more experienced than last seasons outstanding defense (12.2ppg 274ypg). Up front they return 2 starters but lose 1st Rd NFL DC DT Jared Odrick (11tfl 7sk '09). They do bring back HM B10 DT Ollie Ogbu 30tkl 8tfl 2sk). Replacing DT Odrick looks to be highly touted Jr. Devon Still (19tkl 5.5tfl 2sk). I like the DE's that are coming back for the Nittany Lions including DE Jack Crawford, who I thought was overlooked when it came time for postseason awards as his 5.5sk and 14.5tfl were both second on one of the best defenses in the country. At the other DE spot I look for DE Eric Lattimore to split time with highly touted soph DE Sean Stanley (11tkl 2sk). Both looked pretty solid as back ups and together they should provide some solid play again this season. This Defensive line is on a ridiculous streak of 5 consecutive seasons of giving up less than 100ypg and 3.0ypc while also recording 30+ sacks in each of those seasons. Normally I would expect a drop off after the loss of a DT like Odrick, but with DT Ogbu and DE Crawford returning I expect them to have another fine season. At LB they are in a world of hurt, as they do not return any starters from a year ago, losing 3 NFL Draft Choices including Navorro Bowman (93tkl 17tfl 3sk 3pbu 2int '09) and Sean Lee (86tkl 11tfl 2sk 7pbu 1int), and you can't forget about Josh Hull (116tkl 8.5tfl 2pbu 2int). I just don't know how you can even come close to replacing a group that tallied 295tkl 36.5tfl 7sk 12pbu 5int combined last season. Even with those losses this is still a very talented group with highly touted's all over the 2 deep, including OLBs Bani Bbadyu (37tkl) and Nate Stupar (31tkl 1.5tfl 1sk 1int) who both saw a decent amount of playing time this past season. I would also keep my eye on a couple of true frosh in very highly touted Khairi Fortt (top five LB recruit out of HS) and highly touted Dakota Foyer, both of whom practiced with the team this past spring. No matter how talented this group is I just can't imagine a way that they even come close to ridiculous play of last years group. In the secondary they return 3 starters, and all 3 have all-conf potential in FS Drew Astorino (returning leading tackler), SS Nick Sukay (11pbu #1 on Tm LY), and CB D'Anton Lynn (35tkl 3.5tfl 5pbu). Soph CB Stephon Morris (30tkl 2tfl 1sk 1pbu 1int) saw plenty of action this past season, but I expect for highly touted rFr CB Derrick Thomas to have a run at the starting spot. No matter who wins this unit is more experienced than a year ago (0 returning starters) and in a defense full of streaks, they look to continue on their own (2 consecutive seasons of giving up less than 200ypg; 187ypg '08 and 185ypg '09).

Conclusion

Penn St's out of conference schedule is centered around one game. Sept. 11 @ Alabama. They should beat Youngstown St, Kent St, and Temple. But for this to be a successful OOC they are going to need to go 4-0. If their defense continues to play at a high level and they can get some solid play out of the QB position than they have a shot, but I don't think that Bama's defense is the best thing for a young QB to try his luck at so early in the season, and I expect them to go 3-1. In conference PSU goes @ Iowa, Illinois, @ Minnesota, Michigan, Northwestern, @ Ohio St, vs. Indiana (in Landover), and finally at home against Michigan St. I fully expect for the Penn St to have another solid season, and for the 3rd consecutive season get 6 or more conference wins. I however do not expect them to win @ Iowa or @ Ohio St. Those two teams are just so much further along than the Nittany Lions right now, and they are also two of the toughest places to go win on the road. This should still be another fine season for the aging legend.

5. Michigan Wolverines
'09 Final Record: 5-7 (1-7)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #9 Scoring Off - 22.1 points per game
• #9 First Downs - 17.4 first downs per game
• #11 Turnovers - 23

Returning: 7 Starters

• Passing: QB Tate Forcier (165-281 58.7% 2050yds 13td 10int), QB Denard Robinson (14-31 45.2% 188yds 2td 4int)
• Rushing: QB Denard Robinson (69att 351yds 5.1avg 5td), RB Vincent Smith (48att 276yds 5.8avg 1td)
• Receiving: WR Roy Roundtree (32rec 434yds 13.6avg 3td), WR Martavious Odoms (22rec 272yds 12.4avg 1td)

In Head Coach Rich Rodriguez's first season at Michigan the Wolverines had their worst offensive season in over a decade (20.3ppg 291ypg) but in his 2nd season they made avast improvement as their numbers increased to 29.5ppg 385ypg. Something to pay attention to with these numbers is that even though their numbers in Rodriguez's 2nd year look good, they only averaged 22.1ppg 321ypg in conference play. They hope to continue to increase those numbers this season as he returns 7 starters on offense, 3 short of last seasons 10 starters, but they are now in the 3rd year of Rodriguez's system. At QB they alternated mobile QBs Tate Forcier (118att 240yds 2.0avg 3td) and Denard Robinson during the first few games this past season, but Forcier took control towards the end, with Robinson getting some work in at RB. This season both return, and I expect Forcier's numbers to increase as he gets back 5 of his top 6 receivers, including '09 leading receiver WR Roy Roundtree. This group is very talented and while no one outside of Roundtree has really established themselves, there is enough talent to make up for it. They didn't use their TE that much this past season but I expect Jr. Kevin Koger (16rec 220yds 13.8avg 2td) to make a bigger impact. Roriguez' style of Offense is not going to showcase the Pass that much but their is plenty of talent now, and experience at QB so I will call for the best numbers of the Rich Rod era. At RB they do lose their top backs in Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown (combined 982yds 12td). They do return Vincent Smith who missed the last 3 games of '09 and this past spring recovering from an ACL injury, and they get highly touted rFr. Fitzgerald Toussaint. Up front they return 3 starters from a season ago including highly touted rFr LT Taylor Lewan. As previously mentioned this offense is geared more towards the run so they should continue to put up decent numbers even with the inexperience.

Defense (3-3-5)

Key '09 Stats

• #11 Scoring Def - 33.3 points per game
• #11 Rushing Def - 203.4 yards per game
• #9 Opp First Downs - 20.4 first downs per game
• #11 Takeaways - 9

Returning: 8 Starters

• Tackles: SS Jordan Kovacs (75tkl 4.5tfl 1int), MLB Obi Ezeh(69tkl 5tfl)
• Sacks: DE Ryan Van Bergen (50tkl 6.5tfl 5sk 4pbu), two tied at 2
• Interceptions: OLB Jonas Mouton (66tkl 3tfl 2int), three tied at 1

In HC Rodriguez's first season the Wolverines Defense gave up the most points per game in its last 10 seasons (28.9ppg) and 2nd highest ypg (367ypg). He then hired former Syracuse Head Coach Greg Robinson to take over the defense and in his first season the Wolverines gave up their 2nd highest ppg (27.5ppg) and the most ypg (393ypg). This season they are switching over to a 3-3-5, which is what Rich Rod ran at West Virginia, and they return 8 starters, making them the most experienced Michigan defense since '06. Up front they return 1 DE and 1 DT from a year ago, but they lose All-Conf DE Brandon Graham (26tfl! 10.5sk). Of the two they return are DE Ryan Van Bergen who had a pretty solid season this past year, but he will be needed to make a bigger impact this year with the loss of Graham, and DT Mike Martin (51tkl 8.5tfl 2sk) who will play strong DE in the the 3 man front. In between is very highly touted soph William Campbell (former top 5 DL recruit out of HS), who is also very big (6'5 324lb). This is a much bigger and much stronger front and they should improve upon last seasons poor rush D (172ypg 4.4ypc) but with the loss of DE Graham I expect a much worse pass rush. At LB they return all 3 starters from a season ago in highly touted soph OLB Craig Roh (37tkl 7.5tfl 2sk 1int), 2 year starter OLB Jonas Mouton, and MLB Obi Ezeh (HM B10 '08). Ezeh struggled in pass coverage this past season and was often replaced, but now that he is year 2 under Robinson I expect him to really improve this season. This is not an overwhelming group but they are experienced and in the 2nd year under DC Robinson, so I do expect a big improvement out of this group. In the secondary they return 3 starters but lose their best CB in Donovan Warren (7pbu 4int '09). This season they do get back SS Jordan Kovacs (returning leading tackler) and CB Troy Woolfolk (46tkl) who has started at every position in the secondary, and the 3rd S in the 5 back look Mike Williams (56tkl 1tfl). I expect a couple of highly touted rFr to take over the open positions in CB JT Turner and FS Cameron Gordon. This group is more experienced so they should improve but with the loss of CB Warren, and a pretty dismal looking pass rush, their may be a lot more pressure on the secondary to get things done. This past season was one of the worst defenses in Michigan History and with all the experience they get back I expect them to have a much better season, because if they don't they may be without a Head Coach this spring.

Conclusion

Michigan has an interesting out of conference schedule as they play Connecticut, @ Notre Dame, Massachusetts, and Bowling Green. They should win the last two easily but the opener with Connecticut is a toss up, as the experienced Huskies look to challenge for the Big East title, and they could make a big statement if they can take one in the Big House, and on the road at Notre Dame is also going to be a tough one as Rich Rod is 1-1 vs. Notre Dame in his career including a 17-35 loss in South Bend back in '08. I expect them to go 2-2, but wouldn't be overly surprised to see 3-1. In conference they go @ Indiana, Michigan St, Iowa, @ Penn St, Illinois, @ Purdue, Wisconsin, and @ Ohio St. Now I do expect for Michigan to be bowl eligible, and that means I see them winning @ Indiana, vs. Michigan St, Illinois, and pulling the upset either @ Purdue, or at home vs. Wisconsin. Rich Rod needs a big year to save his job, and I really don't think he is going to get it.

5. Northwestern Wildcats
'09 Final Record: 8-5 (5-3)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats

• #1 Passing Off - 270.8 yards per game
• #9 Rushing Off - 106.6 yards per game
• #1 First Downs - 22.9 first downs per game
• #2 3rd Downs - 46.3% conversion
• #3 Turnovers - 13

Returning: 7 Starters

• Passing: QB Dan Persa (20-34 58.8% 224yds 2td 2int)
• Rushing: RB Arby Fields (82att 302yds 3.7avg 5td), RB Scott Concannon (68att 241yds 3.5avg 2td)
• Receiving: TE Drake Dunsmore (47rec 523yds 11.1avg 3td), WR Sidney Stewart (42rec 470yds 11.2avg 2td)

In '05 Northwestern had perhaps its best offense ever averaging 32.3ppg 500ypg. In '08 Mick McCal was brought in to be the Offensive Coordinator and in both seasons that he has been leading the offense the Wildcats ppg in conference play have dropped, going from 25.9ppg in '07 to 23.9ppg in '08 to 22.3ppg in '09. This season they return 7 starters, making this unit more experienced than the '09 version. Their biggest loss however comes in the form of all-conf QB Mike Kafka (64.78% 3430yds 16td 12int '09). Kafka was also very mobile gaining 519yds rushing (lost 224 for a net 241yds 8td). His backup this past season, Dan Persa, is also the front runner for the job this fall. Persa is a pretty mobile QB as well, though he has been a little skittish with running after being injured vs. Iowa in '09. Also competing for the job is rFr. Evan Watkins, who is the highest rated QB recruit since all time leading passer Brett Basanez. Whoever takes over is going to have a hard time matching Kafka's passing skills and leadership. They also are going to have a hard time finding a solid set of receivers after losing their top two this past season, WRs Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen, to graduations (combined 148rec 1783yds 12td). They do get back TE Drake Dunsmore, who had a pretty solid season and looks to be an All-Conf candidate. After that they have Sidney Stewart, who is the returning leading WR, but that is that last of the noteworthy. I do expect for WRs Jeremy Ebert (21rec 226yds 10.8avg) and Demtrius Fields (24rec 225yds 9.4vavg 1td) to make a bigger impact into the offense, but I don't see any of them coming close to putting up the numbers that Brewer and Markshausen did. Combine the inexperience at receiver with the inexperience at QB and I am not expecting much out of the Wildcats passing game this fall. Up front they return 4 starters from a season ago including LT Al Netter (HM B10), C Ben Burkett (frosh AA '08), and I expect highly touted sophomore RT Patrick Ward to take over the open spt. This experienced OL should be able to help the new QB transition a little bit, as well as open holes for the RB by committee that returns intact. Four RBs shard the carries this past fall in Arby Fields (82att), Scott Concannon (68att), Stephen Simmons (59att 233yds 3.9avg 2td), and Jacob Schmidt (64att 217yds 3.4avg 1td). This season I expect much bigger production out of this group (combined 993yds 10td) and they should have a year that closer resembles the production of '06 (142ypg 4.0ypc).

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #5 Scoring Def - 24.9 points per game
• #5 Total Def - 354.1 yards per game

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Quentin Davie (90tkl 11.5tfl 5sk 3pbu 1int), MLB Nate Williams (86tkl 7tfl 1sk 4pbu 2int)
• Sacks: OLB Quentin Davie, DE Vince Browne (39tkl 8tfl 5sk)
• Interceptions: SS Brian Peters (67tkl 3tfl 3int), two tied at 2

In '08 Mike Hankwitz was hired to take over as DC and in his two seasons in Evanston the Wildcats have had their best defenses over the last decade giving up 20.2ppg 341ypg in '08 and 24.5ppg 350ypg in '09. This season the Wildcats return 6 starters on defense making this group the least experienced defense in the last 4 seasons. Up front they only return 2 starters but they loose all conf DE Corey Wootton. They do get back DE Vince Browne, whose 8tfl was 2nd on team this past season, and DT Corbin Bryant (30tkl 5.5tfl 2.5sk), who has all-conf potential. The replacements this season are both highly touted in Jr. DT Niko Mafuli (6tkl) and soph DE Quentin Williams (14tkl 1int). I also expect for highly touted true frosh Chance Carter to see some time in games this fall as well. With the loss of Wootton I expect the pass rush to drop a skosh but they could improve upon this past seasons rush defense (129ypg 3.8ypc). At LB they return all 3 starters from a season ago in MLB Nate Williams, OLB Quentin Davie, and OLB Ben Johnson (28tkl 3.5tfl 1sk 1int). Davie and Williams both had all-conf type seasons, and I expect them to again have some solid production. This is one of the most underrated LB corps in the country. In the secondary they return just 1 starter from a season ago, losing two 1st tm all-conf performers in CB Sherrick McManis (7pbu 5int) and FS Brad Phillips (86tkl 5tfl 3sk 1int). They also lose SS Brendan Smith (40tkl 1tfl) who was all-conf material before getting hurt. The DB they do return is CB Jordin Mabin (75tkl 2int; frosh AA '08) and backup SS Brian Peters. I look for Jr. David Arnold (34tkl 4.5tfl 2sk) to take over at the open FS spot, but with this defense being this inexperienced I expect them to have a worse season than '09 (222ypg 59.2%).

Conclusion

Northwestern too has a very manageable out of conference schedule as they travel @ Vanderbilt, Illinois St, @ Rice, and Central Michigan. If they can get that first tough road game out of the way, and don't laugh because any time you travel to the SEC it is tough, than I expect them to go sweep the rest and go 4-0 in the OOC. In conference they go @ Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan St, @ Indiana, @ Penn St, Iowa, vs. Illinois (Wrigley Field), and @ Wisconsin. I am by no means expecting Northwestern to a power house this season but just by looking at the beginning of this schedule they could open up 4-0 before they head over to Happy Valley. From then on I expect them to stumble but they should match the 8 wins put up by the '09 team.

5. Michigan State Spartans
'09 Final Record: 6-7 (4-4)

Offense (Multiple)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #11 3rd Downs - 33.0% conversion

Returning: 7 Starters

• Passing: QB Kirk Cousins (198-328 60.4% 2680yds 19td 9int), QB Keith Nichol (49-91 53.8% 764yds 7td 3int; Moved to WR in spring)
• Rushing: RB Larry Caper (120att 468yds 3.9avg 6td), RB Edwin Baker (85att 427yds 5.0avg 1td)
• Receiving: WR B.J. Cunningham (48rec 641yds 13.4avg 4td), WR Mark Dell (26rec 449yds 17.3avg 1td)

Over the past 5 seasons the Spartans offense has increased in '05 (33.8ppg 497ypg), then decreased in '06 (25.2ppg 357ypg), then increased in '07 (33.1ppg 417ypg), then decreased in '08 (25.1ppg 343ypg), and again increased in '09 (29.7ppg 406ypg). In 3 of those 5 seasons they have returned 7 starters, 6 in '07, and 8 in '05. This year they again return 7 starters and I have to wonder if the trend will continue? They do get back HM B10 QB Kirk Cousins, who was a captain last year as a sophomore, and this season he gets back 4 of his top 5 receivers but he does lose 1st tm WR Blair White (70rec 990yds 9td) but in his place starts Cousins backup QB last season in Keith Nichol (former top ten QB recruit out of HS; Oklahoma Transf), who the coaches are raving about. WR B.J. Cunningham is the returning leading receiver so he should make a pretty strong impact as well, and WR Mark Dell who averaged 17.3 yards per catch. Keep an eye on Keyshawn Martin, who is also the return man, and he has big play ability once he gets the ball in his hands. At TE they return HM B10 Charlie Gantt (22rec 348yds 15.8avg 2td) but I would also keep an eye on very highly touted soph TE Dion Sims (former top ten TE recruit out of HS). If Nichol lives up to the coaches expectations than this Spartan air attack could resemble the '06 pass game (295ypg 66.1%). For them to be that good however they are going to need some solid play from the O-Line that only returns 2 starters, and loses 1st tm all-conf Joel Nitchman. They do return HM B10 LG Joel Foreman and last years RT D.J. Young. There is some talent across the line with highly touted Jr. RG Antonio Jeremiah and highly touted rFr. David Barrent. How they come together will determine how much time Cousins will have to throw and how much running room highly touted sophomore RBS Larry Caper and Edwin Baker (combined 895yds 7td) have to run. I look for another name to crack the rotation this fall in highly touted true frosh Nick Hill. Again if the line can come together than this offense has a shot at stopping the up and down streak, but if they struggle....

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #11 Passing Def - 268.5 yards per game
• #9 Opp 3rd Downs - 48.5% conversion
• #11 Takeaways - 9

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: MLB Greg Jones (154tkl 14tfl 9sk), OLB Eric Gordon (92tkl 7.5tfl 3.5sk)
• Sacks: MLB Greg Jones, DT Jerel Worthy (37tkl 9tfl 4.5sk)
• Interceptions: FS Trenton Robinson (67tkl 1int), CB Chris L Rucker (58tkl 3tfl 1sk 7pbu 1int)

Under DC Pat Narduzzi this defense has only improved once, in his first season here in '07 (28.4ppg 364ypg '06; 26.6ppg 346ypg '07). Since than their overall numbers have been decreasing but again if you pay attention to the conference numbers you will see that in his 2nd and 3rd seasons they gave up less than 30.0ppg for the first time since '04. This season they return just 6 starters making them less experienced than the '09 defense. Up front they get back 2 starters from last seasons solid rush Def (113ypg 3.4ypc) but they do lose HM B10 DE Trevor Anderson. They do get back DE Colin Neely (24tkl 7tfl 3sk) and soph DT Jerel Worthy and both of them were pretty solid this past season, more so worthy with 9tfl in his frosh season. Taking over at the open positions are a pair of highly touted sophomores in DT Blake Treadwell (11tkl) and DE Tyler Hoover (13tkl 0.5sk). This is a pretty solid group and despite the loss of Anderson, should still have another solid season. At LB they get back 2 starters including 1st tm AA MLB Greg Jones and OLB Eric Gordon (#2 tkl'r '09). Keep an eyeon the next 3 guys in the rotation, with highly touted sophomore OLB Chris Norman (11tkl 1tfl) projected to be the other starting OLB, and two true frosh in very highly touted OLB William Gholston (top five DL recruit out of HS; 6'7 260), who could also play some DE if needed, and highly touted MLB Max Bullough, who practiced with the team in the spring. HC Mark Dantonio said that both newcomers will play this fall. With Jones and Gordon and the talented newcomers this is one of the bust LB Corps in the conference. In the secondary they return 2 starters from a year ago but they do lose an all-conf CB. I'm a pretty big fan of CB Chris Rucker and FS Trenton Robinson. Don't be surprised to see highly touted true frosh Mylan Hicks and Isaiah Lewis find their way into the rotation this season. They should have a much better year after having a poor pass defense in '09 (268ypg 60.9%).

Conclusion

The Spartans have one of those out of conference schedules with three teams that they should beat in Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic (in Detroit), and Northern Colorado, but then they have that one game that their entire OOC is centered around, and that game would be Sept. 18 vs. Notre Dame. I have a feeling that this defense will have a great game and that they will finish the OOC at 4-0, though I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they went 3-1. In Conference play they get Wisconsin, @ Michigan, Illinois, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, and @ Penn St. Of the teams that I have tied for 5th I believe that Michigan State is the best of them but they have a rough intro into the conference and could open up 1-4 in the conference. They should top last years 6 wins though.

8. Illinois Fighting Illini
'09 Final Record: 3-9 (2-6)

Offense (Multiple Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #11 Scoring Off - 18.5 points per game
• #10 Passing Off - 176.8 yards per game
• #3 Rushing Off - 176.4 yards per game
• #3 Turnovers - 13

Returning: 5 Starters

• Passing: QB Eddie McGee (25-47 53.2% 303yds 1td 3int; moved to WR in spring)
• Rushing: RB Mikel Leshore (108att 734yds 6.8avg 5td), RB Jason Ford (97att 588yds 6.1avg 4td)
• Receiving: WR Jarred Fayson (16rec 218yds 13.6avg 1td), WR Jack Ramsey (16rec 182yds 11.4avg)

One very interesting thing about this Illinois offense is that they haven't really had "bad" offenses. They have struggled at times, particularly in '03 (16.9ppg 340ypg), '04 (21.8ppg 338ypg) and '06 (19.6ppg 345ypg). But they haven't been just downright awful, the interesting thing is that they have finished in the negative in turnovers over 9 out of the last 10 seasons (-6.8 over the last 10; -8 in the 9 neg). This season though they return only 5 starters, making this the most inexperienced Illini offense in at least a decade. The big loss is 3rd all time leading passer Juice Williams (8037yds '06-'09) whomade a name for himself in '08 when he hit 269ypg with 56.7%. Juice was also pretty active with his feet rushing for 507yds 4td in '09. In the spring his 2yr backup, Eddie McGee, was moved to WR, and highly touted rFr Nathan Scheelhaase took command, as the coaches say that he has taken a huge leadership role and supposedly has deadly accuracy and dangerous speed. We will see. His receiving corps is full of highly touted players including former top ten WR recruit out of HS, Jarred Fayson (former Florida Transf), and former QB Eddie McGee who has lightning speed and has spent time at WR over the last 3 seasons, but I really like what highly touted Jr. A.J. Jenkins (10rec 123yds 12.3 avg 1td) and highly touted soph Jack Ramsey bring to the table. This has the potential to be a very solid WR corps, and if Sheelhaase plays like the coaches say than they very well could have similar passing numbers to '03 (230ypg 60.8%). The run game though is where the Fighting Illini are going to make their living and they return their top two RBs from a year ago in Mikel Leshoure and Jason Ford (combined 1322yds 9td) and 3 on the Offensive Line, including both Guards in Hugh Thornton and Randall Hunt, and LT Jeff Allen (frosh AA '08). The new C appears to be highly touted sophomore Graham Pocic. This looks like a pretty decent Offensive Line with a solid mixture of experience and talent. I look for the rushing numbers to increase and for this to be a pretty solid offense.

Defense (3-4)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #9 Rushing Def - 179.8 yards per game
• #10 Opp First Downs - 21.0 first downs per game
• #9 Takeaways - 11

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Ian Thomas (95tkl 4.5tfl 1sk 4pbu), CB Tavon Wilson (74tkl 3.5tfl 7pbu 1int)
• Sacks: DE Clay Nurse (31tkl 10.5tfl 5.5sk, DT Corey Liuget (36tkl 8tfl 2.5sk 3pbu)
• Interceptions: three tied at 1

Over the last 2 seasons the Illini gradually giving up more ppg, going from 21.8ppg in '07, to 26.6ppg in '08, and 30.2ppg in '09. I don't find that it is any coincidence with their D-Line getting worse in that same time span, with their rush D going from 132ypg 3.7ypc in '07, to 153ypg 4.0ypc in '08, and 154ypg 4.2ypc in '09, this also includes their pass rush (40sk '07, 32sk '08, 19sk '09). This season they return 6 starters making them slighly more experienced than '09, as they hope to stop the slide this year. Up front they return one starter in DE Clay Nurse (5.5sk #1 tm 10.5tfl #1 tm). They do have some athletic DT's this season in former TE Corey Liuget and rFr Akeem Spence. DE Nurse has all-conf potential but I am uncertain about the two in the middle so I will call for another rough season for the DL. At LB they return 3 starters and while both OLB Ian Thomas and Nate Bussey (43tkl 0.5sk) are solid LBs their best is clearly MLB Martez Wilson (all-conf '08; inj '09). With Wilson back I expect this to be a much improved group. In the secondary they return 2 starters, who happen to be the outstanding CB duo of Tavon Wilson and very highly touted soph CB Terry Hawthorne (30tkl 5pbu 1int). The Safeties are both question marks but with the return of Wilson and Hawthorne I expect the pass defense to improve upon last years horrid numbers (249ypg 61.4%).

Conclusion

Illinois has a very interesting out of conference schedule as they get Missouri (in St. Louis), Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, and @ Fresno St. Missouri has owned the Illini in St. Louis over the past 3 seasons (avg score 28.3 - 43.0) and Norhtern Illinois could be a pretty tough opponent, especially if the Illini don't find a solid defensive front, and I'm not sure if they can handle a trip out to California. I expect for Illinois to go 2-2 but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see them go 1-3 or 3-1. In conference play they open up with Ohio St, @ Penn St, @ Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, @ Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern (at Wrigley Field). They key to whether or not Illinois can make it to a bowl game is Nov. 20 at Wrigley field when they take on Northwestern. If they can pull off the upset they could be 6-6 and just might make it back to the post season for the first time since '07s Rose Bowl squad.

8. Purdue Boilermakers
'09 Final Record: 5-7 (4-4)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #3 Passing Off - 260.6 yards per game
• #3 First Downs - 19.6 first downs per game

Returning: 5 Starters

• Passing: QB Caleb TerBush (4-10 40% 22yds)
• Rushing: FB Jared Crank (3att 15yds 5.0avg), RB Al-Terek McBurse (4att 0yds)
• Receiving: WR Keith Smith (91rec 1100yds 12.1avg 5td), TE Kyle Adams (29rec 249yds 8.6avg)

The past two seasons for Purdue they have thrown for 250ypg 58.8% in '08 and 255ypg 60.9% in '09. They are the only school in the Big Ten that can say that those numbers can qualify as below average years as the Boilermakers are used to the 275-300ypg range and 62-65%. This season they only return 5 starters which actually makes this group more experienced than the '09 offense. All over the offense though they too huge hits including QB Joey Elliot (61.7% 3026yds 22td 13int '09). Elliot was one of the more underrated QBs across the country this past season, and he wasn't a bud runner either (268yds 4td). This season his replacement looks to be Miami, FL transfer, highly touted Jr. Robert Marve. Marve has a couple of weapons to work with including 2nd tm All-Conf WR Keith Smith and 4th leading receiver TE Kyle Adams. Former QB Justin Siller may also see some action at WR this fall too. These are not the weapons that Marve is used to working with after a couple of seasons at the "U" but Keith Smith is a fantastic wideout and in this system Marve should do a pretty decent job, but I doubt he will match Elliot's numbers from a year ago. In the them of losing, the Boilermakers only return 2 starters up front and lose two all-conf lineman and a 3yr starter. They do return LT Dennis Kelley and I feel he is a solid OL. The inexperience is going to be hard to overcome and while I think it should affect the pass game it should hurt the run game even more, as they lose their top back Ralph Bolden (935yds 9td '09) to an ACL injury in the spring, and their #2 back Jaycen Taylor (387yds 4td) to graduation. If Bolden can't return than the Boilermakers will return 15 total rush yards, all coming from a fullback. This is going to be a rough season offensively for the Boilermakers.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #9 Scoring Def - 28.5 points per game
• #2 Passing Def - 182.9 yards per game

Returning: 6 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Joe Holland (81tkl 3.5tfl 1.5sk 1int), OLB Jason Werner (77tkl 14.5tfl 4.5sk 1int)
• Sacks: DE Ryan Kerrigan (66tkl 18.5tfl 13sk), two tied at 4.5
• Interceptions: DT Kawann Short (48tkl 4tfl 2int), three tied at 1

During the 1st 5 seasons ('00-'04) of the this decade the Boilermakers defense didn't give up over 350ypg or 24ppg (20.4avg 328.0avg) but in the last 5 seasons of this decade ('05-'09) they haven't given up LESS than 350ypg or 24ppg (27.1ppg 397.2ypg). This season will be the 2nd of current DC Donn Landholm and he returns 6 starters making them slighly less experienced than '09. Up front they return 3 starters from a season ago, but do lose all-conf DT Mike Neal (11.5tfl 5.5sk '09), but of the 3 they do return outstanding DE Ryan Kerrigan (13sk 18.5tfl). The other returning starters are pretty decent as well in DE Gerald Gooden (47tkl 8tfl 4.5s) and DT Kawann Short. This is a really young interior line with the 3 deep at both NT and DT filled with either Sophomores, redshirt Freshman, or true frosh. With the inexperience in the middle, plus the loss of All-Conf DT Neal I expect their rushing numbers to take a big hit, but with the return of DEs Kerrigan and Gooden, they should still continue to put pressure on the QB. At LB they return all 3 starters from a season ago and all 3 of these guys are pretty solid including OLBs Joe Holland (leading returning tackler) and Jason Werner (14.5tfl #2 on team), and MLB Chris Carlino (71tkl 2tfl 4bpu 1int). Overall with their experience they should be one of the better LB corps in the conference. In the secondary, however they don't return any starters, in fact very few of them have every even played in games. FS Albert Evans (30tkl 2pbu) seems pretty decent, but outside of him this looks to be a very weak secondary and they should have their worst defense in a while.

Conclusion

Purdue has a pretty intriguing out of conference schedule as they go @ Notre Dame, Western Illinois, Ball St, and Toledo. A weak secondary is not the thing to have against a Brian Kelly lead offense, and they need to be careful with an improved Ball St, and Pass heavy Toledo. I still expect them to go 3-1, but wouldn't be shocked if they went 2-2. In conference play they go @ Northwestern, Minnesota, @ Ohio St, @ Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Michigan St, and Indiana. Each of these games is going to be tough but they should be able to take care of Minnesota and Indiana at home, and I wouldn't be surprised if they upset Michigan again this year (won L2Y) and make it to a bowl.

10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
'09 Final Record: 6-7 (3-5)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #11 Rushing Off - 97.1 yards per game
• #11 First Downs - 15.8 first downs per game

Returning: 9 Starters

• Passing: QB Adam Weber (191-367 52.0% 2582yds 13td 15int), QB MarQueis Gray (6-15 40.0% 62yds 1td 1int)
• Rushing: RB Duane Bennett (98att 396yds 3.8avg 6td), RB DeLeon Eskridge (74att 294yds 4.0avg 3td)
• Receiving: WR De'Jon McKnight 917rec 311yds 18,3avg), WR Troy Stoudemire (26rec 306yds 11.8avg 2td)

OC Mitch Brownings last seson in '06 (28.9ppg 375ypg), both of OC Mike Dunbars seasons: '07 (26.3ppg 408ypg) and '08 (23.2 323ypg), and OC Jedd Fisch's only season last year (20.9 323ypg) all have something in common: They have been 4 of the 5 worst Minnesota offenses over the last 10 seasons. Last years just so happened to be the worst. What makes this all the more curious is that in this time span they have had their all time leading passer at QB in Adam Weber (8238yds '07-present) and all time leading receiver in WR Eric Decker (3119yds '06-'09). This season the OC duties will be shared by RBs coach Thomas Hammock, and QBs coach, Jeff Horton (former UNLV and Nevada Head Coach). This season they return 9 starters making this group the most experienced offense since '05. They do get back QB Weber who has started each of the past 3 seasons, and while he is perhaps the most experienced QB in the nation, this past season was not his type of offense, and he struggled (52% 15int). This season though they are switching back to the spread and I expect him to have a fantastic season, even though he does lose his two favorite targets in all-conf WR Decker and all-conf TE Nick Tow-Arnett (505yds 3td). They do however return some solid talent and experience with #3 and #4 receivers WR Da'Jon McKnight and Troy Stoudemire, and should fill in the open positions with a couple of highly touted players in Jr. WR Brandon Green (21rec 293yds 14.0avg 1td) and highly touted juco TE Tiree Eure. Even with the loss of their top two receivers I still expect for the Gophers to have their best passing numbers since '08 (219ypg 62.2%). They should also have a much improved run game as they return 2 from their 3 man committee last season in RBs Duane Bennett and DeLeon Eskridge, and the two combined for 670 of the groups 1037yds, and 9 of the their 11tds. This season they fill in the open spot with highly touted true frosh Lamonte Edwards. They also return all 5 starters up front including 4 Senior Starters, including RG Matt Carufel (former ND transfer). With experienced up front and an experienced set of backs with an infusion of talent, I expect for the rushing numbers to greatly improve from last seasons dismal numbers (99ypg 3.0ypc).

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #9 Passing Def - 235.5 yards per game
• #10 Opp 3rd Downs - 49.2% conversion

Returning: 2 Starters

• Tackles: SS Kim Royston (86tkl 1.5tfl 1sk 6pbu 1int), FS Kyle Theret (73tkl 2tfl 4pbu 3int)
• Sacks: CB Ryan Collado (34tkl 4tfl 2sk), DE Anthony Jacobs (19tkl 4tfl 2sk)
• Interceptions: FS Kyle Theret, SS Kim Royston

In DC Ted Roof's one season in Minnesota he greatly improved the defense as they went from 36.7ppg 519ypg in '07 to 24.8ppg 384ypg in '08. Roof than left to become the DC at Auburn, so now the DC duties are shared by Kevin Cosgrove and DB coach Ronnie Lee, and in their first season they again improved the defense going to 23.8ppg 369ypg in '09. This season though I think the improvement will stop as they only return 2 starters making this the most inexperienced defense in over a decade for the Gophers. Up front they don't return any starters but what they have their isn't awful as they are projected to start DEs Anthony Jacobs and DL Wilhite (4tkl 3sk) and both looked pretty decent in their limited playing time as did DTs Brandon Kirksey (16tkl 3tfl) and Jewhan Edwards (8tkl 1.5tfl). Keep an eye on very highly touted rFr Ra'Shede Hageman (top ten TE recruit out of HS). This unit looks to have a slighly worse rush D (152ypg 3.8ypc '09) and pass rush (22sk '09) than last year. At LB they too don't return any starters but do have a couple of highly touted sophomores in OLB Keanon Cooper (43tkl 2.5tfl 1sk) and Spencer Reeves (1tkl), and MLB Gary Tinsley (21tkl 2.5tfl 1sk) looked semi decent in his playing time this past season. Again with very little experience this group should be down from a year ago. In the secondary they return 2 starters and both Safeties in FS Kyle Theret and SS Kim Royston. Highly touted sophomore CB Michael Carter (11tkl 1sk 2pbu) looked pretty decent this past fall and I expect him to have a decent season, but even with the return of both Safeties, I think their will be too much havoc being wreaked on the defense and it wouldn't surprise me to see their pass def get worse as well.

Conclusion

The out of conference schedule could be really tough for the Gophers as they travel to Middle Tennessee, South Dakota, USC, and Northern Illinois. To be honest I only have the Gophers going 2-2 but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 1-3. MTSU is the favorite in Murphreesboro, South Dakota might upset them if they get caught looking ahead to USC, who should kill them, and Northern Illinois is a pretty solid team. 3-1 is a major victory here. In conference they get it rough as they face Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, @ Purdue, Penn St, Ohio St, @ Michigan St, @ Illinois, and in the end they get Iowa. I think they'll sneak in a win somewhere, probably at home vs. Northwestern, but that is going to be it. I do not think they will make it to a 3rd consecutive bowl.

10. Indiana Hoosiers
'09 Final Record: 4-8 (1-7)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats

• #2 Passing Off - 262.5 yards per game
• #9 3rd Downs - 36.8% conversion

Returning: 9 Starters

• Passing: QB Ben Chappell (268-428 62.6% 2941yds 17td 15int), WR Mitchell Evans (3-7 42.9% 21yds; moved to SS in spring)
• Rushing: RB Darius Willis (123att 607yds 4.9avg 6td), WR Mitchell Evans (33att 131yds 4.0avg; moved to SS in spring)
• Receiving: WR Tandon Doss (77rec 962yds 12.5avg 5td), WR Demarlo Belcher (61rec 770yds 12.6avg 5td)

In '08 this offense (and team) was pretty miserable, especially in conference play as they only scored 14.5ppg 294ypg against their conference rivals (outscored by 26.5). This past season however they made HUGE strides as they averaged 24.4ppg 373ypg vs Conference foes (outscored by 7.4). This season they return 9 starters making them the most experienced group in the last 3 seasons. The biggest name to get back is that of QB Ben Chappell who lead this Hoosier air attack to its best numbers of the past decade (248ypg 61.8%). This season Chappell gets back his top 5 receivers including 1st tm All-Conf WR Tandon Doss, #2 receiver Demarlo Belcher, and TE Max Dedmond (18rec 141yds 7.8avg 1td). I am also a pretty big fan of #3 receiver WR Terrence Turner (46rec 443yds 9.6avg 1td). With Chappell back, and his top receivers from a season ago they could very well top last seasons outstanding numbers. At RB they return Darius Willis, who was the leading rusher despite being often injured, though he does lose his two primary backups. Up front they return 3 starters including highly touted soph C Will Matte, and with an experienced O-Line and a healthy RB Willis (4.9avg '09) they could very well have their best rushing numbers in the last few seasons. This is one of the most underrated offenses in the country.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats

• #10 Scoring Def - 31.8 points per game
• #10 Rushing Def - 182.1 yards per game
• #11 Opp First Downs - 23.1 first downs per game
• #11 Opp 3rd Downs - 52.2% conversion
• #2 Takeaways - 21

Returning: 4 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Tyler Replogle (80tkl 6.5fl 2sk 1int), DT Adam Replogle (32tkl 5tfl 4sk)
• Sacks: DT Adam Replogle, OLB Tyler Replogle
• Interceptions: three tied at 1

Co-Defensive Coordinators Brian George (DTs) and Joe Palcic (DBs) are entering their 6th season sharing the duties, and last season they had their est of those 6, and it showed in conference play, as they gave up their lowest ppg (31.8) and ypg (417) in at least 7 seasons. This season however they only return 4 starters from that defense, making this the least experienced Hoosier defense of the last decade. They do return 2 up front but they lose two all-conf DEs in Jamie Kirlew (14.5tfl 6.5sk '09) and Greg Middleton (8.5tfl 3sk '09). What they do return are two pretty solid sophomore DTs in Adam Replogle (4sk '09) and Larry Black (29tkl 7.5tfl 1.5sk). As far as DE's go Sr. Deonte Mack (2tkl) started 10 games back in '08, and Jr. Darius Johnson (8tkl 1sk) looked semi decent when he played. With two pretty solid, and now experienced, DTs I expect for the Hoosiers to improve their run defense but with the loss of two superstar DEs I expect for the Hoosiers to have a much much worse pass rush. At LB they return 1 starter but lose a couple of All-Conf LBs in Matt Mayberry (108tkl 11tfl 5.5sk 3pbu 3int '09) and Will Patterson (67tkl 4tfl). They do get back solid OLB Tyler Replogle and have highly touted juco Jeff Thomas (practiced with team in spring) and the coaches love his athleticism, work ethic, and speed. Even with the loss of Mayberry and Patterson this has the chance to be just as good if Thomas lives up to the hype. In the secondary they return just 1 starter, but lose all-conf CB Ray Fisher (40tkl 2pbu '09). They do return a couple of experienced guys at CB including CB Adrian Burks (21tkl 1pbu) and Richard Council (22tkl 2pbu), both started multiple games this past season. At FS Chris Adkins (14tkl 1tfl 1int) had some solid playing time, and they get former WR Mitchell Evans (33rec 366yds 11.1avg 3td) at SS. Evans actually came in as a DB when he was a frosh, but was moved over to offense where he played a large role, and they created plays for him. Despite the loss of CB Fisher I don't think this pass D will drop that much.

Conclusion

The Hoosiers have a pretty easy out of conference schedule as they play Towson, @ Western Kentucky, Akron, and Arkansas St. I really don't think that any of these teams will give them that much trouble and I will be surprised if I don't see them go 4-0 in their OOC. In conference they face Michigan, @ Ohio St, @ Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, @ Wisconsin, Penn St (in Landover), and @ Purdue. While I am only expecting one conference win out of this group, don't be surprised if you see an upset of the Wolverines on Oct. 2. They have a legitimate shot at making the post season.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
'09 Final Record: 6-6

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats (National)

• #32 Scoring Off - 30.1 points per game
• #5 Passing Off - 323.5 yards per game
• #84 Rushing Off - 128.3 yards per game

Returning: 5 Starters

• Passing: QB Dayne Crist (10-20 50.0% 130yds 1td 1int)
• Rushing: RB Armando Allen (142att 697yds 4.9avg 3td), RB Robert Hughes (88att 416yds 4.7avg 5td)
• Receiving: WR Michael Floyd (44rec 795yds 18.1avg 9td), TE Kyle Rudolph (33rec 364yds 11.0avg 3td)

Despite having offensive genius Charlie Weiss as a Head Coach the Notre Dame offense actually struggled in '07 (16.4ppg 242ypg) and '08 (24.7ppg 355ypg). But in '09 Weiss finally took over the play calling duties himself and the offense skyrocketed averaging 30.1ppg 452ypg. This season however there is a new HC in Brian Kelly, whose offenses at Cincinnati were some of the best in the country. For the Big East. My Big problem with Kelley is that his offenses are actually kind of inconsistant, in '07 his UC offense averaged 36.3ppg, but the bearcatsonly topped 30 twice after their first 5 games, and if you take out the 52 they dropped on Syracuse, they only averaged 26.6ppg, almost 10 points per game less. In '08 they only topped 30 4 times all season, putting up 26 @ Oklahoma (two returns for TDs), 17 @ Akron, 13 vs. Rutgers, 16 @ Connecticut and 7 vs. Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Take out their 40 points over Eastern Kentucky and 45 vs. Miami, OH and they only average 23.2ppg. In '09 they did have a very solid season, but again the inconsistancy is what bothers me as they only put up 28 vs. Oregon St, 28 vs. Fresno St, 28 vs. Syracuse, and 24 vs. West Virginia, and 24 vs. Florida. This season he only returns 5 starter making this the least experienced offense he has had in the last 5 seasons, and theleast experienced Irish Offense in the last 3 seasons. While they lose 2nd all time leading passer Jimmy Clausen (8148yds '07-'09) I'm not entirely sure that will hurt them that much. In an era where everyone judges wins Clausen went 16-21 as a starter at one of the most historic football programs in the college football history. He also had help from 3 of the better receivers in the country. They lose one of those in Biletkinoff Winnwer Golden Tate (93rec 1496yds 15td) and Tate, time and time again, made crucial and acrobatic catches that would save some pretty miserable throws by Clausen. Replacing Clausen this season is very highly touted sophomore Dayne Crist (former top five QB recruit out of HS) and if there is anything that Kelly did well it was develop QBs and I think that Crist has the talent to be special. Of those 3 receivers I mentioned their only loss is WR Tate, but they also get back Michael Floyd, who was having an AA type season before he was injured and missed 5 games (he was supposed to miss the rest of the season), and TE Kyle Rudolph. Weiss was a fantastic recruiter so this unit is filled with very highly touted receivers and not matter who takes over at the other positions I expect this to be a very good passing attack. At RB they return Seniors Armando Allen and Robert Hughes (combined for 1113yds 8td '09) but they also get the infusion of very highly touted rFr Cierre Wood (former top five RB out of HS). They do only return 2 starters up front which is a pretty big question mark for me, but as previously mentioned Weiss was a pretty solid recruiter so there is plenty of talent there. Cincinnati never blew me away running the football so I really don't expect their to be much change here. This should be a decent offense, though it all depends on the inexperience of a QB and 3 new OL.

Defense (3-4)

Key '09 Stats (National)

• #63 Scoring Def - 25.9 points per game
• #76 Passing Def - 227.5 yards per game
• #89 Rushing Def - 170.3 yards per game

Returning: 9 Starters

• Tackles: OLB Brian Smith (71tkl 5.5tfl 1.5sk 2int), SS Harrison Smith (69tkl 6.5tfl 4pbu)
• Sacks: DE Ethan Johnson (32tkl 6.5tfl 4sk), OLB Darius Fleming (29tkl 12tfl 3sk)
• Interceptions: OLB Brian Smith, CB Robert Blanton (38tkl 2pbu 2int)

If you can read above at the Stats it is pretty easy to see that Notre Dame had some struggles at Defense under former HC Weiss. And again when it comes to Kelly I don't think he was consistant enough in a conference like the Big East to really be impressive. Anyone think that UCONN has an outstanding offense? Because Kelly sturggled to stop them giving up 40 to them in a loss in '08 and 45 in a close win '09. Illinois struggled on offense last year but still found a way to put up 36 on the Bearcats, and Pittsburgh was up by a solid 31 at one point before UC's offense came to the rescue. And who can forget what Tebow and Co. did to this team in the Sugar Bowl this past season? This season though the Fighting Irish return 9 Starters making the the most experienced group that Kelly has worked with and the most experienced Irish defn since '06. They play a 3-4 and return all 3 starters from a season ago including DEs Kapron Lewis-Moore (46tkl 7tfl 2.5sk) and Ethan Johnson and NG Ian Williams (39tkl 6tfl 1int). With experience and talent dotted all along the D-Line I expect them to greatly improve upon last seasons poor numbers (172ypg 4.8ypc). At LB they return OLBs Darius Fleming and Brian Smith, and 1 ILB in very highly touted soph Mati Te'O (63tkl 5.5tfl 1sk; former top five LB recruit out of HS). Again there is all kinds of talent and experience in this unit so I expect some decent improvement. In the secondary they 3 starters from a season ago including SS Harrison Smith, who has AA potential, and both CBs Gary Gray (28tkl 1pbu 1int), and Darrin Walls (27tkl 6pbu 1int). Unlike everywhere else on this roster this unit is not dotted with very highly touted prospects but they are pretty experienced this season and I expect them to improve upon last seasons numbers (228ypg 58.1%).

Conclusion

Notre Dame has dumbed down their schedule over the past few seasons so that they could say they were a winning program again but they just couldn't get it done and they fired Weiss after last seasons embarrassing 6-6 team, that declined to go to a bowl. This season the Irish face Purdue, Michigan, @ Michigan St, Stanford, @ Boston College, Pittsburgh, Western Michigan, Navy (in East Rutherford), Tulsa, Utah, Army (in the Bronx), and @ USC. Each of the past 3 Irish Head Coaches have started out with a bang, and I think that Kelly will do so again this season, if only because Notre Dame plays only 3 true road games, with two neutral sites against service acadamies.

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If you haven't already be sure to check out my other 2010 NCAA Conference previews

Big XII

ACC

Pac-10

Big East

Non-BCS Conferences

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Thank you for reading,

Batteman