2010 Big East Preview

Hey there guys,

We're slowly inching towards that time of the year, with football season just 23 days away!

I have already posted my Non-BCS Conference Predictions and today I will be doing the Big East. This past season my Conference predictions were better then Phil Steele's and this season I will be looking to do better and be on top again.

While every conference outside of the SEC has received criticism for not being as good, no conference has received more flak than the Big East, providing very little evidence to contradict that idea. The Conference just hasn't been the same since Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) left after the 2003 season, and Boston College followed after the the '04 season. While they have been 3-2 in BCS Bowl games since 2005, two of the three wins were upsets by West Virginia, then lead by Head Coach Rich Rodriguez and QB Pat White, and the other was when high powered Louisville barely got by surprise ACC Champ Wake Forest. Ever since Rich Rodriguez and Bobby Petrino have left though the conference has definitely gone down. Their big name coach over the past two seasons was Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, but unlike Rodriguez and Petrino, Kelly could not get it done in the postseason. Granted he was only the Bearcats' Head Coach for one of those BCS Bowls, he still lost to Virginia Tech, despite being favored to win, and the next season, without Kelly, Cincinnati was destroyed by Florida in Tim Tebow's final collegiate game.

The lack of respect for the Big East was again shown, this time in the recently released USA Today Coaches Poll, as the Big East is tied for last among BCS conferences (Pac-10 other) with only 2 teams ranked, #15 Pittsburgh and #24 West Virginia. If you take the top team from each BCS Conference every conference but the Pac-10 and the Big East have a team in the Top 10, the SEC has #1 Alabama, Big Ten has #2 Ohio St, Big XII has #4 Texas, and the ACC has #6 Virginia Tech. Even the Pac-10 has #11 Oregon, who surely would have been a Top 10 team had starting QB, and potential Heisman candidate, Jeremiah Masoli not been kicked off the team. In fact two Non-BCS Conference teams were ranked ahead of the highest Big East team, in #5 Boise State from the WAC, and #7 TCU from the Mountain West.

In their defense they are 17-9 in Bowl Games since 2005. That's all I got.

Anyway guys here goes. As always let me know what yall think.

BIG EAST

(CP-Coaches Poll/AP-Associated Press Poll)

1. #15(cp) Pittsburgh Panthers
'09 Record: 10-3 (5-2)

Offense (Pro Style)

Key '09 Offensive Stats (Conference Play)

• #3 Scoring Off - 31.6 points per game
• #3 Passing Off - 217.7 yards per game
• #1 Rushing Off - 200.9 yards per game
• #2 First Downs - 21.1 first downs per game
• #1 3rd Downs - 49.5% conversion

Returning: 5 returning starters

• Passing: QB Tino Sunseri (10-17 58.8% 114yds 2td 0int)
  
• Rushing: RB Dion Lewis (325att 1799yds 5.5avg 17td), RB Ray Graham (61att 349yds 5.7avg 4td)
  
• Receiving: WR Jon Baldwin (57rec 1111yds 19.5avg 8td), WR Mike Shannahan (15rec 211yds 14.1avg)

Over the last 3 seasons this Pitt offense has turned into one of the Big East' best going from averaging 22.8 points per game and 319 yards per game, to averaging 32.1 ppg and 392 ypg in '09. They don't sound like high octane offensive numbers, but Pittsburgh is a power offense. Bill Stull had an up and down career, even being booed at one point, before having a fantastic senior season. Stull's 65% completion percentage was the highest since Tyler Palko's 68% in '06. New QB So. Tino Sunseri is very talented QB with a stronger arm but I don't expect to him to be nearly that accurate. Backing him up is former top ten qb recruit Pat Bostick, who had a solid year with the scout team last season. I don't expect Pittsburgh to have as solid of a year from the QB spot, but I do think that they drop off won't be too drastic. I need to be clear though. I think the QB play will be good but the passing numbers may take a big hit. Gone this year are WR Dorin Dickerson (49rec 529yds 10td) and TE Oderick Turner (21rec 227yds 1td), although they do return WR Jon Baldwin, who had a monster sophomore season (1111yds 19.5avg 8td). He presents some huge physical match ups as he is 6'5 225, and runs in the high 4.4's. He is going to draw a lot of attention from defenses which is going to open things up for sophomore WR Mike Shannahan, a Baldwin mold at 6'5 220, and former Juco QB Greg Cross, who RS last season to learn the WR position. Although they only return 2 starters on the O-Line they return them at both of the tackle spots including 1st Tm All-Big East LT Jason Pinkston. RT Lucas Nix has All Conf potential and the Panthers have one of the best LT/RT duos in the country. If they can get solid play out of the interior line they should be fine. If the interior line plays well, then we may even see RB Dion Lewis have a year like he did in '09 (1799yds 17td). This may be one of the best backfields in the country as behind him is another sophomore Ray Graham who rushed for 5.7 yards per carry as Lewis primary backup. Leading the way for the sophomore combo is explosive blocker Henry Hynoski (6'2 260) who may be the best blocking fullback in the country. This offense has the potential to be one of the top offenses in the Big East again.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Defensive Stats (Conference Play)

• #1 Scoring Def - 19.4 points allowed per game
• #1 Passing Def - 192.3 yards allowed per game
• #1 Rushing Def - 112.1 yards allowed per game
• #3 First Downs - 17.0 first downs allowed per game
• #2 Opp 3rd Downs - 33.3% conversion
• #2 Takeaways - 13

Returning: 6 returning starters

• Tackles: LB Max Gruder (91tkl 4.5tfl), SS Dom DeCicco (88tkl 3int)
  
• Sacks: DE Greg Romeus (43tkl 11.5tfl 8sk), DE Jabaal Sheard (42tkl 10.5tfl 5sk), DT Myles Caragein (35tkl 7.5tfl 5sk)
  
• Interceptions: SS DeCicco, FS Jarred Holley (48tkl 3int)

Just as the offense has been improving, the defense has been one of the Big East best since Head Coach Dave Wanndstedt's arrival in '05, never allowing more then 25 points per game, and allowing more than 35oypg only once (363ypg '06). The most impressive thing about these defenses is that they have never returned more than 7 starters in any of Wannstedt's 5 seasons. That is no different this season as they return only 6 starters but those that they do return are some of the Big East's best. This includes the Big East's best pass rushing D-Line that returns 1st Tm Big East DE Greg Romeus, and DE Jabaal Sheard, along with DT Myles Caragein. Caragein finished tied for the 2nd on the team in sacks (5) and tied for 5th in TFL (7.5). And he did all of this while only starting 1 football game. I expect him to have a pretty solid junior season and help take some of the pressures off of Sheard and Romeus. Aside Caragein is highly touted DT T.J. Clemmings. While I think they may not fair as well against the run (opp 3.3ypc '09), I do think they may actually improve in their pass rushing. They return two Linebackers in OLB's Greg Williams and leading tackler Max Gruder. Replacing MLB Adam Dunn (1st tm Big East) will not be easy but highly touted sophomore Dan Mason (6'0 225) is ready to take over. With potential all conference OLB's, Mason should make a smooth transition into the starting spot and this has the potential to be one of the best LB corps in the nation. They return two starters in the secondary as well in both Safeties, FS Jarred Holley (48tkl 3int) and 2nd Tm All Big East SS Dom DeCicco (8tkl 1tfl 3int). I am not overly convinced about this unit. While they had a good season last year they also had 1st tm all Big East Aaron Berry. They are very inexperienced at the corner positions, returning 2 starts from last season. If the D-Line continues to put up solid pressure then this secondary could still be solid statistically with DeCicco and Holley returning. Overall this is one of, if not the best defenses in the Big East.

Conclusion

The Panthers have a very interesting schedule this season. Out of conference they have some tough games @ Utah, vs. New Hampshire, vs. Miami, FL, vs. Florida International, and @ Notre Dame. All of these games are winnable. Utah isn't threatening for a national championship, they get Miami at Heinz, and they have beaten Notre Dame each of the past two seasons and Wannstedt went 1-2 vs. Kelly at Cincinnati, winning in '07, and losing in '08 and '09 by a combined total of 8 pts. In conference play they go @ Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville, @ UCONN, @ South Florida, West Virginia, and @ Cincinnati. It is no coincidence that Pittsburghs rise under Wannstedt the last two seasons is proportional to their increased success on the road (4-11 first 3 years, 8-3 last two years). So despite having four conference road games I actually expect them to pull out the road wins at Syracuse, South Florida and Cincinnati and to take care of business at home against Rutgers and Louisville. The season will come down to how well the Panthers take care of business at Connecticut and vs. West Virginia. If they can go 3-2 or better out of conference they have the potential to top last seasons 10 wins, as one of my power ratings even calls for an undefeated season. However the rest of my power ratings do not call for Pitt to match last years record, though still win the Big East. If that is so it will be yet another long offseason for the Big East.

1. #24(cp) West Virginia Mountaineers
'09 Record: 9-4 (5-2)

Offense (Spread Option)

Key '09 Offensive Stats (Conference Play)

• #8 Passing Off - 169.1 yards per game
• #2 Rushing Off - 174.4 yards per game
• #2 3rd Downs - 39% conversion
• #2 Turnovers - 8

Returning: 7 starters

• Passing: WB Geno Smith (32-49 65.3% 309yds 1td 1int)
• Rushing: RB Noel Devine (241att 1465yds 6.1avg 13td), FB Ryan Clarke (60att 450yds 4.2avg 8td)
• Receiving: WR Jock Sanders (72rec 688yds 9.6avg 3td), WR Brad Starks (29rec 405yds 14.0avg 2td)

From '05 to '08 the name Pat White was synonymous with the West Virginia offense. After being drafted by the Miami Dolphins white left as the Mountaineers 2nd all time leading passer (6,049yds) and 2nd all time leading rusher (4,480yds). When healthy he was the most dangerous player in all of college football. Jarrett Brown took over for him last year and everyone was expecting a big change in the offense geared more towards throwing the ball, something that Head Coach Bill Stewart had attempted to do with White the previous year before switching back to the old offense. Well that wasn't the case so much. Passing numbers only increased from 150 yards per game to 191 yards per game as Stewart stuck with the old offense more then the one he tried to implement with White. They even finished last in the Big East in passing offense in conference play. This year though I expect to see better QB play as highly touted sophomore Geno Smith has now spent 2 years with Stewart, knows the offense, and shouldn't have to worry about switching back and forth. His receiving corps brings back 2nd Tm All Big East WR Jock Sanders (688 rec yds 175 rush yds), who is like a poor man's Percy Harvin, and WR Brad Starks, who was 3rd on the team in receptions (29) and receiving yards (405) this past season. Two names to look out for though are former highly touted RB Tavon Austin and very highly touted true freshman WR Ivan McCartney. Of course the big name that returns in 1st Tm All Big East RB Noel Devine, and if he stays healthy has a legitimate shot at becoming the Mountaineers all time leading rusher. They also return 4 starters up front, and the new starter is highly touted sophomore Jeff Bruan. This line may not be full of all stars but I expect their experience to play a big factor in games this season, and I look for OG Josh Jenkins to become one of the Big East's best big men. This could be the Big East best offense.

Defense (3-3-5)

Key 'o9 Defensive Stats (Conference

• #2 Scoring Def - 19.6 points per game
• #1 Opp First Downs - 15.7 first downs per game
• #1 Opp 3rd Down - 24.7% conversions
• #2 Takeaways - 13

Returning: 9 starters

• Tackles: LB Pat Lazear (78tkl 6tfl 1sk), LB JT Thomas (76tkl 7tfl 2int)
• Sacks: DE Julian Miller (53tkl 14tfl 9sk), DT Josh Taylor (23tkl 2sk)
• Interceptions: FS Robert Sands (65tkl 3.5tfl 5int), CB Keith Tandy (61tkl 4tfl 3int)

Ever since Stewart took over back in '08 the opponents yards per carry, points per game, and passing yards per game have risen. This year they return 9 starters and should make vast improvements. They return all 3 starters along the defensive line including Julian Miller (14tfl 9sk) and 2nd Tm All Big East NT Chris Neild (35tkl 2tfl). I would also keep an eye on DT Scooter Berry, he has been banged up the last two years but is talented and experienced enough to be all conference, and also newcomer DE Bruce Irvin (top ten Juco prospect). I expect the def line to be the best since '05 (2.9ypc). They return two starters from the LB Corps, and they are two of the Big East's best in 1st Tm All-Conf JT Thomas (76tkl 7tfl 2int) and 2nd Tm All-Conf Pat Lazear (78tkl 6tfl 1sk). While Anthony Leonard is slated to start the season at MLB, I expect rFr Branko Busick to take over by midseason. This is one of, if not the best LB corps in the Big East. The secondary for the Mountaineers will be the most improved part of this defense, returning 1st Tm All-Conf CB Brandon Hogan (74tkl 11pbu 1int) and 1st tm All-Conf FS Robert Sands (65tkl 3.5tfl 8pbu 5int). Like the rest of this defense they should also show strong improvement. For the first time in Bill Stewart's career the defense should actually improve and may even be one of, if not the, conference's best defense.

Conclusion

The Mountaineers have a much more manageable out of conference schedule than Pitt, though they do have their intriguing games, as they host Coastal Carolina, @ Marshall, Maryland, @ LSU, and UNLV. The conference schedule goes something like this: South Florida, Syracuse, @ Connecticut, Cincinnati, @ Louisville, @ Pittsburgh, and Rutgers. The two big conference games are @ UCONN and @ Pittsburgh. It is because of these two games that I have trouble seeing the Mountaineers winning this conference. Under Stewart the Mountaineers have been solid at home so I expect them to take out USF and Cincinnati but they have been 4-6 on the road. Even if they do just finish 5-2 in the Big East they are an upset in Baton Rouge away from having a legitimate shot at being an at large invite to a BCS Bowl.

3. Connecticut Huskies
'09 Final Record: 8-5 (3-4)

Offense (Multiple Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #2 Scoring Off - 33.9 points per game
• #2 Passing Off - 268.6 yards per game
• #3 First downs - 20.0 first downs per game

Returning: 8 starters

• Passing: QB Zach Frazer (116-218 53.2% 1461yds 10td 9int), QB Cody Endres (98-154 63.6% 1354yds 6td 4int)
• Rushing: RB Jordan Todman (235att 1188yds 5.1avg 14td), RB Robbie Frey (5att 69yds 2td)
• Receiving: WR Kashif Moore (22rec 370yds 16.8avg 3td) WR Isiah Moore (24rec 286yds 11.9 1td)

The Huskies offense has improved every year since '05. That has to be expected again this season as they return 8 starters on offense including their two QB's from a year ago and four O-Linemen. Zach Frazer and Cody Endres split the QB duties this past season with Frazer earning 7 starts and Endres 6 starts during the season. This season however I look for Frazer to start living up to his potential (former top ten High School QB recruit), more specifically for him to greatly improve upon his 53%. If he doesn't then Endres will be ready to step in. There wasn't much seperation between the two QB's last year, as each lead the offense to roughly 30 points per game in their starts, but the big difference is that Frazer went 5-2 in his 7 starts, which included upset wins @ Notre Dame, and then over South Carolina in the bowl (with a 2 point loss on the road @ #4 Cincinnati), while Endres only went 3-3, which included an upset loss at home to Rutgers. It is Frazer's job to lose and I expect him to be one of the best QB's in the Big East this season. That said I am not entirely sure who will be catching what he throws as UCONN loses explosive WR Marcus Easley, and if you add up the top 3 returning receivers they just barely get past Easley's total from last season. Though I will say there is going to be a lot of pressure taken off the WR's this year. The offensiv eline returns 4 starters including two 1st Tm All-Conf players in C Moe Petrus and RG Zach Hurd. The empty LT spot looks to be filled by highly touted sophomre Jimmy Bennett (6'8 301), who missed all of last season with a knee injury. If he recovers well enough and lives up to his potential this could be the best line in the conference. Running behind that line is going to be Jordan Todman, who managed to rush for 1188yds while splitting time with Andre Dixon (1093yds). This year Dixon departs but I look for a huge impact out of recen USC Transfer highly touted DJ Shoemate (eligible for '10). I expect Todman to take the lions share of the carries but Shoemate should be a fantastic complement and the rushing numbers should make a huge jump. If a WR can step up and be #1 then this offense has the potential to be big time, but even without one they are still pretty darn good.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #7 Scoring Def - 30.0 points per game
• #8 Passing Def - 278.9 yards per game
• #7 Rushing Def - 179.4 yards per game
• #8 Opp First Downs - 21.3 first downs per game
• #7 Opp 3rd Downs - 47.5% conversion

Returning: 8 starters

• Tackles: LB Lawrence Wilson (140tkl 11tfl 5sk), LB Greg Lloyd (91tkl 3tfl; moved to DE)
• Sacks: LB Lawrence Wilson, DT Twyon Martin (36tkl 8.5tfl 4sk)
• Interceptions: 3 tied with 1

If the Huskies could had a defense last season they would have won the Big East. They gave up 24 or more in all of their conference losses last season. With 8 starters I do see an improvement but the question that still remains is how much of an improvement will be seen? And is it enough for this team to compete for Conference Championships? They return 3 starters along the defensive line including DT Twyon Martin and DE Jesse Joseph (38tkl 5rfl 2.5sk), who started all 13 games as a true freshman this past season. They do lose 1st Tm All-Conf DE Lindsey Witten (11.5sk), they replace him with 2nd Tm All-Conf LB Greg Lloyd, who moved over in the spring. Without Witten I expect that this team will lose a bit of an edge in it's pass rush but that they will improve upon last years 3.8 ypc allowed. Another reason I believe that is because they return 2 starters at LB in 1st Tm All-Conf OLB Lawrence Wilson and 2nd Tm All-Conf MLB Scott Lutrus. Even though they lose Greg Lloyd to the d-line I like his replacement, sophomre Jory Johnson (5tfl in 3st). If he is ready to play then this is still one of the elite LB corps in the Big East. The secondary is the biggest question mark on this team. They return 2 starters from a year ago when they allowed 63.6% and 236 yards per game. Their two losses were both all-conf performers. I like CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (40tkl 6pbu 1int) but I see this unit being a major weakness for this team, especially since I am expecting a worse pass rush this season. If they can manage to have a serviceable secondary then this will be the most improved defense in the Big East and would give them a legitimate chance at winning the conference.

Conclusion

The out of conference schedule is intriguing for the Huskies as they go @ Michigan, Texas Southern, @ Temple, Buffalo, and Vanderbilt. The conference schedule goes: @ Rutgers, @ Louisville, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, @ Syracuse, Cincinnati, @ South Florida. They take on four conference road games but outside of USF the other 3 are the worst teams in the conference. They still get West Virginia at home on a Friday Night, and then a bye week before they host Rutgers. You know what? I actually expect the Huskies to win both of those games. The real problems on the schedule are @ Rutgers (Friday game), then Cincinnati sandwiched between two road games, and finally USF on the road to finish the season. If they can 2-1 in those 3 games, and take care of business at home vs. Pitt and WVU, then they will make their first ever BCS Bowl, though despite how I may be rooting for them, I don't see that happening. Their OOC schedule is perhaps the most intriguing part of their schedule. Two teams with good offenses and bad defenses meet up to open the season at Michigan, the road game at Temple is no gimme by any means. The Owls have a solid defense and play great ball control offense, and Vandy may be Vandy but they are still an SEC team, one that many people overlook. Either way I look for UCONN to have a fine season.

3. Cincinnati Bearcats
'09 Final Record: 12-1 (7-0)

Offense (Spread)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #1 Scoring Off - 38.0 points per game
• #1 Passing Off - 313.1 yards per game
• #3 Rushing Off - 168.9 yards per game
• #1 First Downs - 22.0 first downs per game
• #3 3rd Downs - 38.9% conversion
• #1 Turnovers - 7

Returning: 7 starters

• Passing: QB Zach Collaros (93-124 75% 1434yds 10td 2int), QB Chazz Anderson (5-6 83.3% 33yds)
• Rushing: RB Isiah Pead (121att 806yds 6.7avg 9td), QB Zach Collaros (57att 344yds 6.0avg 4td)
• Receiving: WR Armon Binns (61rec 888yds 14.6avg 11td), WR D.J. Woods (51rec 640yds 12.5avg 4td)

This was the best offens in the Big East by far the three years that Brian Kelly had control of the Bearcats, and this year replacing him (for the 2nd time, Central Mich was the first) is Butch Jones, who lead CMU to back to back MAC titles. But here is my question for the Bearcats offense: How will the Bearcats, and Jones, fair without their star QB? Gone from Cinci is prized pocket style QB Tony Pike, and while yes CMU won under Butch Jones, he won with Tim Tebow lite, aka Dan LeFevour. While Collaros is certainly talented, I want to see how well this offense performs when he starts from beginning to end. It helps when you are returning two solid WR in 2nd Tm All-Conf Armon Binns and D.J. Woods, and also TE Ben Guidugli (27rec 364yds 13.5avg 3td), who has all conf potential. While it will be tough for the Bearcats to replace all time leading receiver Mardy Gilyard (3,003 receiving yards), I am very interested to see how USC transfer Vidal Hazelton does. He was a very highly touted WR out of High School that started 11 games over 3 years for the Trojans and is the highest rated recruit on the current roster. While they don't have a Gilyard type of receiver they do have 3 very good WR's and perhaps the best unit in the Big East. In the backfield the Bearcats return Isiah Pead, and while his numbers won't blow you away he took advantage of playing in a passing offense and found holes for 6.7 yards per carry this past season. With a more mobile, and inexperience QB I expect the Bearcats to run the ball a little more so I expect his rushing numbers to improve, even if his yards per carry decrease. The offensive line is going to be key for the Bearcats this season as well as they return 3 starters along the line, including one at RT after Sam Griffin slid over to LT. How he adjusts to the blindside could very well affect how Collaros does the season. Along the interior line they will hav ea new C but surrounding him are 2nd Tm All-Conf OG's Alex Hoffman and Jason Kelce. This should still be a solid offense but it all depends on how Collaros adjusts to being a full time starter, on how Sam Griffin adjusts to switching to the blindside, and if anyone, Vidal Hazelton in particular, can step up in the absence of the greatest Bearcat receiver.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #3 Scoring Def - 22.7 points per game
• #3 Passing Def - 200.4 yards per game
• #6 Rushing Def - 149.3 yards per game
• #6 Opp First Downs - 19.9 first downs per game

Returning: 5 starters

• Tackles: LB J.K. Schaffer (100tkl 5.5tfl 1.5sk 3int), SS Drew Frey (64tkl 2int)
• Sacks: DT Derek Wolfe (41tkl 8tfl 5sk) LB Walter Stewart (59tkl 8.5tfl 4.5sk)
  
• Interceptions: LB J.K. Shaffer, two tied at 2

In Brian Kelly's 3 years at Cincinnati, his defenses got worse every season. 18.8ppg '07 - 20.1ppg '08 - 23.1ppg '09. This year they only return 5 starters. In fact they only return 1 starter along the defensive front in DT Derek Wolfe. Outside of Wolfe they have 2 other total starts and those com in the form of his partner along the line NT John Hughes (23tkl 6tfl 2sk). If there is going to be a breakout player on this defense it is going to be DE Brandon Mills, as he managed 8tfl, and 0 starts. At 5'10 though I question whether or not he will be able to hold up against some of the bigger OT's in the conference. Cinci's opp yards per carry have increased every season and with the inexperience along the line for a second consecutive season I again expect those numbers to increase. They do return 2 starting LB's in 2nd Tm All-Conf OLB JK Schaffer and Walter Stewart. And while I like both of those guys I am really intrigued by the man starting at MLB heading into fall practice. That would be Dorian Davis (26tkl), who spent 2 years at the University of Tennessee before transferring up to Cinci. If he plays solid ball then this could be one of the most underrated LB corps across the country. The secondary is another question mark of this defense for me. They return two starters, losing an all conf S in Aaron Webster. They do return CB Dominique Battle (60tkl 4pbu 2int) and SS Drew Frey, both of which have all conf potential. Still outside of that they have just 1 start returning so I will expect about even play with last years pass unit that gave up 230 yards per game and 63.6% completion. This defense could be the achilles heel to this team. They won't be strong against the run up front and their secondary is full of question marks. I expect a continued drop in defense for the bearcats.

Conclusion.

The out of conference schedule for the Bearcats is, like the UCONN Huskies, a bit intriguing. They play @ Fresno St, Indiana St, @ NC State, Oklahoma, and Miami, Oh. In Conference they open up with a road game @ Louisville, before hosting South Florida and Syracuse, then @ West Virginia, Rutgers, @ Connecticut, and Pittsburgh. The trouble for Cincinnati here is that they have road games at West Virginia and Connecticut so they may be out of the race by the time a home game with Pitt comes around. The Rutgers game is intriguing as well as it is sandwiched between raod games at West Virginia and UCONN. They are going to need to play some oustanding football if they are going to win the Big East for a 3rd consecutive season. As far as the OOC schedule, I know that Fresno St is down and NC State, while on the rise, isn't that good. But they still have to play them on the road. Which is never easy. If they are a real player this season they will get to show it when they host Oklahoma on Sep. 25. Cincinnati will not match match last seasons win total.

3. South Florida Bulls
'09 Final Record: 8-5 (3-4)

Offense (No Huddle Spread)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #6 Scoring Off - 22.3 points per game
• #7 Passing Off - 190.1 yards per game
• #7 First Downs - 15.9 first downs per game
• #6 3rd Downs - 38.1% conversion
• #7 Turnovers - 14

Returning: 10 starters

• Passing: QB B.J. Daniels (122-227 53.7% 1983yds 14td 9int), QB Evan Landi (3-5 60% 36yds 1td 1int)
• Rushing: QB B.J. Daniels (175att 772yds 4.4avg 9td), RB Moise Plancher (129att 581yds 4.5avg 5td)
• Receiving: WR A.J. Love (26rec 489yds 18.8avg 4td), WR Dontavia Bogan (22rec 305yds 13.9avg 4td)

This is an offense that produced the Big East career leader in total yds in QB Matt Grothe. Grothe got hurt early last season but still managed to become the 2nd all time leading passer and 3rd time all time leading rusher in school history. He was injured early last season and rFr BJ Daniels took over, and in his first start lead USF to an upset over Florida St in Tallahassee. Daniels is "Vick" like in that he can be that lightning strike for an offense with his running ability, but at the same time is not a polished passer and can make some all around awful throws. Daniels though now has a solid amount of starting experience and I expect him to improve upon last seasons numbers. One thing that migh hurt Daniels in his quest to become a a better passer is his lack of a WR. While they do return the #2, #3, and #4 receivers from a year ago, they lose USF's all time leader in receiving yards in Carlton Mitchell (1,648yds), and ther #2 WR AJ Love, was injured in spring and is questionable for '10. The Bulls do return all 5 starters along the O-Line though so that will give Daniels time to find a favorite receiver if someone can emerge then this offense will be just fine. The RB position is not very important to this offense over the last 4 seasons, and while I don't expect any major numbers, I do think that RB Moises Plancher will be given a few more carries and I expect the teams overall rushing numbers to increase with an experienced line, an experienced back, and a mobile QB. This is definitely an improved offense.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #6 Passing Def - 229.9 yards per game
• #8 opp 3rd Downs - 49.5% conversion

Returning: 5 starters

• Tackles: LB Sabbath Joseph (48tkl 4tfl), LB Sam Barrington (41tkl 2tfl)
• Sacks: DE Craig Marshall (20tkl 4.5tfl 4sk), NT Terrell McClain (25tkl 5tfl 1.5sk)
• Interceptions: three tied at 1

This defense used to be one of the Big East' worst. Now it is just average, having steadily improved little by little over each of the past few seasons. I expect them to play even better this season despite 5 starters returning, as new HC Skip Holtz played a ball control/Defense type first of game at East Carolina, and it won him back to back Conference USA Titles. Up front the Bulls only return 2 starters, both in the middle but there is some young talent up front that will take over by midseason. They are very highly touted rFr DE Ryne Giddins, Highly Touted JucoDE's David Bedford and Claude Davis. In the middle I expect highly touted true frosh Todd Chandler to work his way into the 2 deep and eventually get some major playing time/become the starter. They won't put as much pressure on the QB but this less experienced D-Line may actually improve upon their run numbers (opp 3.9ypc). At LB things aren't looking great as they lose Kion Wilson and #4 tackler Chris Robinson. Both previous HC Jim Leavitt and new HC Holtz were preparing for these losses though with highly touted JUCO OLB's Curtis Weatherspoon, Donte Spires, and Jacquin Williams (28tkl). MLB Sam Barrington (41tkl 2tfl) was on the Big East all freshman team and how he develops over this season could be crucial as they lose Spires, Williams, and returning starter Sabbath Joseph after this season. In the secondary I expect a huge dropoff as they lose 1st Tm All-conf FS Nate Allen and 1st Tm All-Conf CB Jerome Murphy. With them they took 8 of the teams 13 interceptions. I do expect true frosh Terrence Mitchell to find his way into the rotation somehow. That said I am not expecting much out of this secondary, especially if the pass rush drops as much as I expect. Despite being less experienced, the Hiring of Skip Holtz makes me thing we may just see another average year defensively for the Bulls.

Concluson

The out of conference schedule has some rough bumps on it but remains easy for the most part as they play Stony Brook, @ Florida, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and then @ Miami, FL. In the Big East the Bulls play Syracuse, @ West Virginia, @ Cincinnati, Rutgers, @ Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut. While the Bulls only have 3 true conference road games, I still find it very hard to believe they will compete for the Big East championship this season. They have an easy enough conference sched to make it look pretty but I don't think they will have what it takes to beat West Virginia and Cincinnati on the road, and Pittsburgh and Connecticut at home. They should go 3-2 in their OOC. This looks like a 6th consecutive bowl game for the Bulls.

6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
'09 Final Record: 9-4 (3-4)

Offense (Pro Style)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #6 Passing Off - 191.6 yards per game
• #8 Rushing Off - 94.9 yards per game
• #8 First Downs - 15.7 first downs per game
• #8 3rd Down - 29.7% conversion
• #3 Turnovers - 10

Returning: 6 starters

• Passing: QB Tom Savage (149-285 52.3% 2211yds 14td 7int), WR Mohamed Sanu (1-7 14.3% 38yds 1td)
• Rushing: RB Joe Martinek (206att 967yds 4.7avg 9td), WR Mohamed Sanu (62att 346yds 5.6avg 5td)
• Receiving: WR Mohamed Sanu (51rec 639yds 12.5avg 3td), RB Joe Martinek (12rec 140yds 11.7avg)

Back in 2006 the Rutgers offense burst onto the scene with QB Mike Teel (all time leading passer), RB Ray Rice (all time leading rusher), and WR's Kenny Britt (all time leading receiver), Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown. Brown was the last to leave ('09), and as each of them left to move onto the NFL I feel like they took some of the Rutgers Offensive identity with them. Now they are all gone and I feel like it is time for the Scarlet Knights to begin building their own identity again. QB Tom Savage is now in his 2nd year after being named freshman all american last season, and I expect a huge increase in production from the former very highly touted HS QB. While he may lose big play man Tim Brown, he does return do it all WR Mohamed Sanu, and I expect a pair of highly touted freshman in true frosh WR Brandon Coleman and rFr Aaron Hayward to make major impacts upon the passing game this fall. I am also a big fan of TE D.C. Jefferson. A former QB Jeffferson is still growing into the TE position but he is now up to 250, and he is athletic enough to stretch the field and provide a great compliment to the other talented receivers. Despite being less experience I actually expect some better play out of the Scarlet Receivers this fall. RB Joe Martinek isn't going to wow anyone with his blazing speed but he is patient, strong, and has that "want to" about him that makes him hard to bring down. His biggest worry is going to be the inexperienced Offensive Line, who return 2 starters from this past season. Of course one of the two that stayed was 1st tm all-conf RT Art Forst. With the inexperienced offensive line I expect Martinek's numbers to decrease this season, while Savage and Co. should have a solid season throwing the pigskin. While talented, I expect this offense to take a minor step back.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #7 Passing Def - 233.1 yards per game
• #3 Rushing Def - 136.0 yards per game
• #3 opp 3rd Downs - 35.4% conversion
• #1 Takeaways - 14

Returning: 6 starters

• Tackles: LB Antonio Lowery (55tkl 7.5tfl 1sk 1int), SS Joe Lefeged (44tkl 2.4tfl 1int)
• Sacks: DE Jonathan Freeny (33tkl 12tfl 9.5sk), LB Steve Beauharnais (36tkl 7tfl 5sk)
• Interceptions: CB David Rowe (36tkl 7pbu 2int), FS Khaseem Greene (33 tkl 2int)

Defensively the Scarlet Knights have been improving each of the past two seasons, despite their pass defense rising each year. The reason is because of fantastic rush D (103ypg all, opp 3.0ypc). And this season they return 3 starters up front including 1st Tm Frosh All-American DT Scott Vallone (41tkl 9tfl 1.5sk), and 2nd Tm All-Conf DE Alex Silvestro (42tkl 12tfl 2sk). But the name to watch is going to be a guy who was 2nd Tm All-Conf and did not start a single game last season, DE Jonathan Freeny. They have a solid pass rusher in Freeny and some very good run stuffers in the middle. I really like the rotation on the interior of this defensive line because along with Vallone they have returning starter Charlie Noonan (20tkl 2tfl), and then two talented players right behind them in Eric LeGrand (33tkl 7.5tfl 2sk) and highly touted rFr Isaac Holmes. This defensive line should be even better than it was last season. The LB is not as impressive as they only return 1 starter, in OLB Anthony Lowery, but they have do have OLB Manny Abreu (18tkl 1.5tfl) who has the talent to be all conf but has struggled with injuries throughout his time in New Brunswick. If he can stay healthy then this group has a chance to be pretty solid. In the secondary they lose their Defensive MVP from a year ago in CB Devin McCourty and their starting FS. But they do return underrated SS Joe Lefeged, who has all conf potential, and CB David Rowe. Rowe, along with highly touted rFr Darrell Givens (signed with Penn St out of HS), might form to make the most underrated CB duo in the country. Don't be surprised if you don't start seeing highly touted sophomore SS Wayne Warren get more playing time this year as well. With the loss of McCourty I would normally expect a drop, but if Givens and Rowe turn out like I expect, and the defensive line continues to put the pressure on opposing QB's then they could very well start having better numbers, like the DL. If all works out then this defense has the chance to be very good this season.

Conclusion

The out of conference is very manageable for the Scarlet Knights with Norfolk St, @ Florida International, North Carolina, Tulane, and then Army, in East Rutherford. The big game is going to be hosting North Carolina at home, and two years ago UNC destroyed Rutgers 44-12 in NJ. The Conference schedule looks something like this: Connecticut, @ Pittsburgh, @ South Florida, Syracuse, @ Cincinnati, Louisville, and @ West Virginia. Rutgers is a pretty solid football team and has an outside chance of competing for the conference title, but I just have a hard time envisioning this team being able to navigate this conference schedule. They should go 4-1 in the OOC though Army may give them a slight challenge if Rutgers overlooks them. I do expect for a 6th straight bowl game for the Scarlet Knights but I doubt they will match last years 9 wins.

7. Syracuse Orange
'09 Final Record: 4-8 (1-6)

Offense (Pro Style)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #7 Scoring Off - 17.3 points per game
• #6 Rushing Off - 127.1 yards per game
• #8 Turnovers - 18

Returning: 5 starters

• Passing: QB Ryan Nassib (36-68 52.9% 422yds 3td 1int)
• Rushing: RB Delone Carter (236att 1021yds 4.3avg 11td), RB Antwon Bailey (67att 312yds 4.7avg 1td)
• Receiving: WR Marcus Sales (28rec 324yds 11.6avg 3td), WR Alec Lemon (29rec 295yds 10.2avg 1td)

The Orange have not averaged over 300 yards per game or 20+ points per game for a season since '04. In Doug Marrone's first season as Head Coach they averaged 33o yards per game and 21.2 points per game. They took a 4 year basketball player in Duke transfer Mike Paulus and in his only season he completed for a higher % (64.7%) than any of the previous 6 seasons. I am a big fan of Marrone and I can't wait to see what he is going to do at Syracuse. They lose Paulus this season but do return his backup, Nassib. I am not going to call for Nassib to complete 64 or more % of his passes but I do think he will have a big jump in completion % and I think he will improve upon Paulus's 13-14 td:int ratio. While many people are talking about the loss of WR Mike Williams, last years leading receiver, I don't think it will be that big, considering that he quit halfway through the season. Marcus Sales is a talented, and now experienced, receiver and I expect him to be all-conf this season. Outside of Sales their may not be much but I still expect even more improvement in Marrone's second season. RB Delone Carter may not be a household name but this is a very good back. He only lost 27 yds last season. That is very good. They only return 2 starters along the offensive line so I don't think he will get back to 1,000 but he should still be one of the better backs in the conference. Though the line only returns 2 starters 1 of the 2 is 2nd tm all-conf C Ryan Bartholemuw, and with highly touted Juco Michael Hay slotted to take over at LT this O-Line may not drop off as much as you think. I expect this offense to continue to improve under Marrone.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #8 Scoring Def - 30.3 points per game
• #2 Passing Def - 198.4 yards per game
• #2 Rushing Def - 127.1 yards per game
• #2 Opp First Downs - 16.7 first downs
• #7 Takeaways - 7

Returning: 10 starters

• Tackles: LB Derrell Smith (82tkl 10.5tfl 6.5sk), LB Doug Hogue (72tkl 16tfl 9.5sk)
• Sacks: LB Doug Hogue, LB Derrell Smith
• Interceptions: CB Phillip Thomas (29tkl 2int), CB Kevyn Scott (22tkl 3pbu 2int)

Just like the offense this is the best defense that the Orange have fielded in quite some time. They only allowed 3.0 yards per carry last season which is phenomenal compared to the last 6 years. This year the only loss is 1st Tm All-Conf NT Arthur Jones, but they do return the other three starters along the line, including DE Chandler Jones (52tkl 10tfl 2.5sk), who was really impressive as a freshman and may be on the verge of having a breakout season for the Orange. The loss of Arthur Jones is going to be huge and I expect a drop in their opp yards per carry but this line is more experienced and should still be pretty solid. As far as LB's go this may be this best unit in the Big East. They include two 2nd tm All-Conf players in OLB Doug Hogue and MLB Derrell Smith. The other starter is true sophomore E.J. Carter (24tkl 4tfl), and with teams focusing on Hogue and Smith I expect him to really improve as the season goes along. The Secondary was the biggest weakness this past season allowing 235 yards per game and a 64.9% completion. This season they return all 4 starters, including SS Max Suter and FS Mike Holmes. These two are both extremely athletic, and are both former freshman All-Americans. If they can play at a higher level this season then this could be one of the better defenses in the Big East

Conclusion

Syracuse has a pretty decent out of conference schedule @ Akron, @ Washington, Maine, Colgate, and Boston College. @ Washington and BC are the two keys to their OOC and if they manage to take them both could line themselves up for a bowl this post season. In conference they play @ South Florida, Pittsburgh, @ West Virginia, @ Cincinnati, Louisville, @ Rutgers, and Connecitcut. They have two winnable games at home in Louisville and UCONN, and unless they can pull off an upset at USF, WVU, Cini, or Rutgers they are going to have a rough time making the postseason

8. Louisville Cardinals
'09 Final Record: 4-8 (1-6)

Offense (Multiple Set)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #8 Scoring Off - 14.3 points per game
• #7 Rushing Off - 108.1 yards per game
• #6 First Downs - 16.4 first downs
• #7 3rd Downs - 36.3% conversion

Returning: 8 starters

• Passing: QB Adam Froman (111-185 60% 1354yds 6rd 5int), QB Justin Burke (49-97 50.5% 654yds 3td 5int)
• Rushing: RB Victor Anderson (89att 473yds 5.3avg 5td), RB Bilal Powell (108att 392yds 3.6avg 4td)
• Receiving: WR Doug Beaumont (38rec 465yds 12.2avg), TE Cameron Graham (27rec 323yds 12.0avg 2td)

Since '05 the Cardinals offense has gotten worse year after year (for all you Arkansas fans that includes Bobby Petrino's time at UL). And even though the offense returns 8 starters I do not expect to see a giant offensive out burst this season, don't get me wrong they will be better but that lies solely in the potential of one group. QB Adam Froman returns from a below average season last year, and this season loses his favorite target in WR Scott Long. He will not face as much pressure as he returns 4 offensive lineman including C Mario Benavides, who has all conf potential after a solid rFr season. Another reason that Froman won't face as much pressure is that they return RB Victor Anderson, who was on his way to having another huge season before being injured last year. His backup, Bilal Powell, lost some weight and had an outstanding spring. With a better rushing attack and a more experienced O-Line Froman should have a lot less pressure to deal with giving him plenty of time to throw to some under acheiving receivers. The leading returning receiver is SR Doug Beaumont, but he has yet to live up the potential that was laid upon him when he first arrived, and Josh Chichester (6'9 250) has had many an opportunity but has been plagued with drops throughout his entire career. TE Cameron Graham has all-conf potential. If Beaumont or Chichester continue to struggle I look for either highly touted Juco Josh Bellamy or highly touted true frosh Michaelee Harris to step up. This is a very talented receiving corps and if they can step it up this offense has the potential to be pretty good.

Defense (4-3)

Key '09 Stats (Conference Play)

• #6 Scoring Def - 29.7 points per game
• #8 Rushing Def - 193.4 yards per game
• #7 opp First Downs - 20.1 first downs
• #6 opp 3rd Downs - 42.0% conversion
• #8 Takeaways - 8

Returning: 4 starters

• Tackles: CB Johnny Patrick (53tkl 5pbu 2int), LB Brandon Heath (48tkl 5.5tfl 2int)
• Sacks: DE William Savoy (23tkl 5.5tfl 5sk) DT Greg Scruggs (24tkl 6.5tfl 2sk)
• Interceptions: CB Johnny Patrick, LB Brandon Heath

Defensively the Cardinals were pitiful under former HC Steve Kragthorpe. That is probably why they hired Florida DC Charlie Strong to take over and install some kind of pride in a defense that has given up 350+ yards a seson over the last 3 seasons. This season the Cardinals only return 2 starters up front and they aren't even the highlights. I look for DE William Savoy to have breakout season. I think this team will increase their pass rush but they may slide even further in opp ypc. Their LB corps is about the same, as I am looking for a breakout year from OLB Brandon Heath, as he has potential to be an elite backer this season. Outside of Heath there really isn't much reason for excitement. In the secondary they do return CB Johnny Patrick, who is another player that I think is poised for a breakout season. And again I don't see much else. If those 3 players do step up and have the seasons that I am expecting then I wouldn't be surprised to see better numbers from the defense this season.

Conclusion

The out of conference schedule for the Cardinals includes Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, @ Oregon St, @ Arkansas St, and Memphis. Overall if they can upset Kentucky (yup) then they should be able to make it out of the OOC with a 4-1 record. In Conference play they get Cincinnati, Connecticut, @ Pittsubgh, @ Syracuse, South Florida, West Virginia, @ Rutgers. they get tested real early with games against Cinci, UCONN, and Pitt, and I'll be honest if they don't win any of those games then I don't think they will be confident enough heading into their road game at Syracuse. This team is in rebuilding stage right now but I like Charlie Strong and this team has a bright future.

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Alright guys as always you know I love to hear what you think. Just leave a comment below or email me at wherethelandsharksare@gmail.com

Thank you for reading,

Batteman